WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I waited hoping someone else would do it. We have to get this curse off of us. Euro coming in an hour so let’s start here. Mods please pin. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 LFG. The 28th storm is looking good so far. Nice H pressing down from Canada. Solid confluence. Big area of precip over TX blossoming. Oof, looks like it'll be OTS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 I’m gonna hang my hat on the fact that the pattern looks good. Mainly because that’s the only think I can hang it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 exasperating. I'm gonna hang in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: exasperating. I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart. def hand in there. Use both hands if needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: LFG. The 28th storm is looking good so far. Nice H pressing down from Canada. Solid confluence. Big area of precip over TX blossoming. Oof, looks like it'll be OTS.. we go from cutter to southern sliders and back to cutters. oy man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: LFG. The 28th storm is looking good so far. Nice H pressing down from Canada. Solid confluence. Big area of precip over TX blossoming. Oof, looks like it'll be OTS.. I'm liking the Valentines day storm - better confluence and more amped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: exasperating. I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart. sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: There is no cold in the pattern initially. The response to the EPO going up will initially be to dump the trough and cold into the west. Think wave dynamics. See saw. If there is no cold in front of that...what’s the response in the east going to be? I can totally see a ridge popping initially. Could the block fight it off...maybe. But the thing is the block effects things AFTER not before. There is a lag. Loop the n hemisphere h5 progression on the gfs. The block is just getting into a truly favorable location around day 7. By then the damage is done. The trough is dumping west and the ridge is going up because the block wasn’t there a few days earlier to effect the flow yet! If there was more cold in front and the blocking was already established we would see a more broad elongated trough but without..the trough/ridge makes sense. Now..again the blocking could suppress the track enough. I’m not tossing the day 6-10 period. But this was why I said yesterday AFTER that is when I think the progression favors us more. Once the Rex block retrogrades west of Greenland it will start to exert itself on the flow. The cold out west will bleed east under the block. That trough will be forced to spread and broaden. And frankly it’s an odd combo that has huge upside. That block location in a different pac would actually be way too suppressive. That’s a crazy southwest NAO Rex block with big 50/50 vortex signature and a displaced TPV under it. That could just be super cold/dry. But the western trough will try to cut storms west of us. But at some point as more cold bleeds east and the block retrogrades a “oh no you dont” wall will go up and a storm coming from the SW with gulf moisture trying to cut will be blocked and forced under. And those our “fun”. That’s still how I see this potentially playing out. But the balance between cold west/east and block location won’t be perfect for that until closer to the end of January according to the current progression and timing. Hope it’s not too presumptuous of me but bringing this over from the old thread... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: exasperating. I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart. Just think - we only needed it to hold together for another 60 runs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m gonna hang my hat on the fact that the pattern looks good. Mainly because that’s the only think I can hang it on. The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts. 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it this would of been a HECS but it only goes out to 384 and as usual, it stops right before it hits us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts. oh really...we wont have a block till 7 days from now? I thought we had a block LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: oh really...we wont have a block till 7 days from now? I thought we had a block LOL We have a -AO. We have an east based -NAO ridge before that. The Rex block doesn’t form and retrograde to a spot that can offset the pacific until day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ji said: sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow 1. Does the model show snow? If yes, go to 2. If no, go to 3. 2. Is the model the Euro? If yes, go to 4. If no, go to 5. 3. It’s right. 4. Is the model supported by 90% of ensembles and at least 2 other major models? If yes, go to 6. If no, go to 7. 5. It’s wrong. 6. Is the model within 48 hours of the event? If yes, go to 8. If no, go to 9. 7. It’s wrong. 8. It’s wrong. 9. It’s wrong. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I’m really struggling with the incredible lack of cold air. I mean look at the para GFS D9-10. We get 516dm thicknesses, -10 to -15C 850 temps, and at the surface we get low temps in the mid 20s. Normal or above normal for late January! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Is this not technically blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m really struggling with the incredible lack of cold air. I mean look at the para GFS D9-10. We get 516dm thicknesses, -10 to -15C 850 temps, and at the surface we get low temps in the mid 20s. Normal or above normal for late January! Wonder the cause? Incredible if you ask me. And, a little scary, possibly source region decay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Well technically aren’t higher heights in the northern lats indicative of above normal temps there? And we have those all across the higher lats so there is less cold to be had. Seems logical to me and would indicate that too much blocking there is the other side of the sword. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, Ji said: sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow When the euro is rain/miss and the others show snow you bet your ass the others would cave. Vice versa. It’s uncanny, but I’m hanging in there. The timing of both the streams is terrible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 32 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Is this not technically blocking It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 We are pretty much in a "close the blinds" pattern till at least Jan 21st IMO. As others have mentioned above, its going to take a little bit for the Rex Block to get into the place where we would like to see it at and get the Pacific to calm down. If you are expecting the models to have the right idea on when we are going to get snow... forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8. Got it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed.. The gfs will always over do cold past about day 7. That is the most consistent thing that model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 12z EURO is holding h5 energy back at 120 in the SW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 We're in the upside down world. GFS holding SW s/w energy and Euro moving it out faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EURO is holding h5 energy back at 120 in the SW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Def moving the SW s/w energy out at 144 on 12z EURO... its at least 200 miles further northeast comparing to the 00z run at 156 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts