wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 European just hasn't been that good this year at the surface even in the"short range".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 An awfully lazy forecast from the NWS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 NWS first take for the weekend. RGEM staying the course with a pretty intense band forming off Erie Saturday night putting down almost a foot in central Erie county. Probably overdone but still. Pretty important forecast period ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Looks like buffalo going with the Canadian.. This will be an active weather period with above normal temperatures steadily dropping back TOWARDS normal. The trend towards colder weather will allow frequent bouts of pcpn to fall mainly as snow with plowable amounts of snow possible in the lake snow belts east of both lakes. Large stacked low will gradually make its way across the mid western states Friday night...while an occlusion reaching out across our forecast area will advance to Lake Ontario. This will support some rain that will transition to wet snow overnight. A general inch or so of accumulation will be possible. The large slow moving low will track to the east across Pennsylvania on Saturday while a wave along the occlusion will develop into a deep secondary storm over New England. We can expect fairly widespread snow showers in this scenario...but any real snow of consequence should be confined to the Eastern Lake Ontario region where a few inches of accumulation will be possible. As the parent mid level storm exits across the St Lawrence valley Saturday night...a west to northwest flow in its wake will support accumulating lake snows east of both lakes. A minimum of several inches of snow can be expected near and east of the Chautauqua ridge and especially in the vicinity of the Tug Hill. The lake snows will continue in these areas through Sunday with additional accumulations expected. Leaned on CanNH guidance for bulk of this period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 In terms of where this ends up we have 3 camps..The western camp which includes the two european models, eastern camp the two GFS models and the middle camp the Canadian models.. Which ever track is right will determine the wind direction. European models have more of a WSW flow.. Canadian models have more of a west flow which ends WNW/NW.. Gfs models are farthest east and have more of a NW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: In terms of where this ends up we have 3 camps..The western camp which includes the two european models, eastern camp the two GFS models and the middle camp the Canadian models.. Which ever track is right will determine the wind direction. European models have more of a WSW flow.. Canadian models have more of a west flow which ends WNW/NW.. Gfs models are farthest east and have more of a NW flow.. The air just isn't cold though, my only issue. Looks marginal. The synoptic support should help some though. Think this is an elevation based event, but looks better your way then Erie aside from the ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Interesting map. Assuming this combines the elements of today, tomorrow night, and then the LES. At my lower elevation in Sullivan I’m guessing the under, but it’ll still be an inch or so. Elevation driven event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like buffalo going with the Canadian.. This will be an active weather period with above normal temperatures steadily dropping back TOWARDS normal. The trend towards colder weather will allow frequent bouts of pcpn to fall mainly as snow with plowable amounts of snow possible in the lake snow belts east of both lakes. Large stacked low will gradually make its way across the mid western states Friday night...while an occlusion reaching out across our forecast area will advance to Lake Ontario. This will support some rain that will transition to wet snow overnight. A general inch or so of accumulation will be possible. The large slow moving low will track to the east across Pennsylvania on Saturday while a wave along the occlusion will develop into a deep secondary storm over New England. We can expect fairly widespread snow showers in this scenario...but any real snow of consequence should be confined to the Eastern Lake Ontario region where a few inches of accumulation will be possible. As the parent mid level storm exits across the St Lawrence valley Saturday night...a west to northwest flow in its wake will support accumulating lake snows east of both lakes. A minimum of several inches of snow can be expected near and east of the Chautauqua ridge and especially in the vicinity of the Tug Hill. The lake snows will continue in these areas through Sunday with additional accumulations expected. Leaned on CanNH guidance for bulk of this period. Since. When. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The air just isn't cold though, my only issue. Looks marginal. The synoptic support should help some though. Think this is an elevation based event, but looks better your way then Erie aside from the ridges. I never said it would be pretty It depends what guidance is correct.. Gfs models are colder than the Canadian guidance because of the NW flow compared to West flow.. Precip rates almost always trump temps, rgem 1.5" LE and still snowing, Ratios will suck for sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: I never said it would be pretty It depends what guidance is correct.. Gfs models are colder than the Canadian guidance because of the NW flow compared to West flow.. Precip rates almost always trump temps, rgem 1.5" LE and still snowing, Ratios will suck for sure lol We can't be picky this year. We take what we can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Those are some great points, guys. Personally, I have been struggling a bit with working in a career that I love or whether to start looking for something that isn't so stressful but pays much better. My wife and I do not have a goal to gain wealth, as that is not a priority of ours. We have challenged ourselves to live within our means while trying to make sure we can financially support organizations and future generations. She's amazing at it. I am a bit more prone to wanting some 'play money". The wife grew up in poverty though, so she has a deeper understanding of being careful with money. Sorry if that's a bit too deep...just wanted to share a less common perspective. We should start a GFS Bitcoin. Looking for early investors...the ICO price will be $0.01...reflecting its relative value. Load 'em up! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Since. When. Probably because the European and gfs have been erratic while Canadian guidance has been fairly steady..WPC track seems to side with the Canadians as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I'm guessing this is just synoptic here.. Which looks about right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I can’t even. This is a Rochester dream track. In f’ing dead center coldest climo and we get totally f’ed by warmth!?!?!?!!?? im done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 New NAM says time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Yeah temps are going to hold down accumulation some.. Normally we would get smoked in this type of scenario.. Easy 1'-2'+ if we had our normal enhancement ratios lol Still 1.5" of liquid, almost all snow is nothing to sneeze at..Heck I'd be happy to manage 10-1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah temps are going to hold down accumulation some.. Normally we would get smoked in this type of scenario.. Easy 1'-2'+ if we had our normal enhancement ratios lol Still 1.5" of liquid, almost all snow is nothing to sneeze at..Heck I'd be happy to manage 10-1 ratios.. You could do ok. I think it’s elevation dependent. It’s just a little gallling to have an elevation dependent thing this time of year, with that track. I mean come on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Nam products have almost no rain as we have some disorganized showers around..3k gives us a few hours of heavy synoptic sat morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Still hoping for a bit more from this than forecasted. 1"? Come one. 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3k has 6"+ just in a few hours sat morning, enhancement starts afternoon/evening.. Would be nice to catch a little synoptic too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, vortmax said: Still hoping for a bit more from this than forecasted. 1"? Come one. 12z NAM: I take 4.5” and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 This is really good setup for wolf. Ideal actually if the temps were colder. I think you get over a foot. Pound town wolf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 10:1 34" in southern tug where @TugHillMatt used to live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I'm thinking the rgem is a little overzealous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm thinking the rgem is a little overzealous lol I think 10-15" is easily in range, elevation will help a lot with a marginal event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 984 LP in the stack of NH. This thing is hot. Too bad it gets its act together late and is plagued by warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WRF is really west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 All the NAM meso’s are intriguing. I’ve learned to mostly dismiss them in favor of the 3k in this range however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really tough forecast here... new GFS actually paints a pretty snowy picture, blended with NAMs and Canadian 3-6" is a decent call atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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