tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 And Oswego County should be atleast a advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 You can see our main player for tonight on the visible satellite as it spins its way down through Western Quebec. Quite the chunk of cold air and vorticity. Look quick before the sun sets! https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Winds picked up alot in past hour or so. Think this may surprise alot of people. Will be a harsh evening into tomorrow morning. Like I said would not be surprised if some areas of Eastern Monroe to western wayne get a foot from this evening into saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would be nice to see a meso-low or 2 overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Well at least next week's storm has crashed and burned early. And if it does come back over the weekend it'll be an unexpected surprise without having to sweat the details for the next few days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Miller Type-B situation unfolding on Sunday. Sfc low over the Mid- Mississippi Valley heads ever so slowly east while weakening as tracks across the Ohio Valley and then dissipates over western PA. While this occurs, a secondary low is forecast to develop along the Mid- Atlantic coast. For our region, there still remains a lots of uncertainty at this point. While it appears that a good portion of the region will remain precipitation free Sunday, some moisture may make inroads into Western NY (Southern Tier). Elsewhere, the stout sfc ridge to our north will likely keep a grip on the rest of the region. Still lots of time for things to change. Will have to keep a close eye on this system. It could bring accumulating snows or not much at all as we head into next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Again still lots of uncertainty during this time period. Strong area of Canadian sfc high pressure will "likely" still have a firm grip on the region. Depending on which wins the position battle will then determine our chances for some snow. It`s still anticipated that the parent sfc low will dissipate over western PA on Monday. As of the 28/12Z guidance, nearly all models are still in decent agreement that a rapidly intensifying nor`easter will develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast at the start of the work week, then moves in a northeasterly direction. The question will then be how much the Canadian sfc high holds on to its crushing grip across the region. If it holds strong, it`s "likely" that the region will feel no more than a glancing blow for parts of the forecast area. 28/12Z ECMWF is currently advertising this solution. Furthermore, to hammer home the uncertainty there is a large spread in potential snowfall in the ensembles. With that said, have a mix of chance to low end likely POPs for Western NY for Sunday night through Monday. Low confidence at this point. Stay tuned as things could change moving forward through the first half of the work week. Storm system then pulls away by midweek and then sfc high pressure takes over for late Wednesday through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Well at least next week's storm has crashed and burned early. And if it does come back over the weekend it'll be an unexpected surprise without having to sweat the details for the next few days. You know I feel like a lot of storms in the middle of these forecasts lose their way and then find their way back to the original idea. Time will tell if this is correct 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 hopefully the icon holds. it is all we have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: hopefully the icon holds. it is all we have left. Kind of like seeing Gronk rumbling towards the end zone at full speed with only your third string safety back there at the goal line to attempt the game saving tackle Sure there's a chance..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: hopefully the icon holds. it is all we have left. Still lots of hits in the ensembles. GFS still looked ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 LR NAM Fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 How quickly we forget how bad the models were with the last system.. They didn't catch on at 100 hours out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: You can see our main player for tonight on the visible satellite as it spins its way down through Western Quebec. Quite the chunk of cold air and vorticity. Look quick before the sun sets! https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 That is like out of the movie the day after tomorrow. Thing of beauty. Warm lake is going to love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: How quickly we forget how bad the models were with the last system.. They didn't catch on at 100 hours out lol They didn't catch on until day of. where off buy like 100 to 150 miles. A couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Watch the primary will go into Western ny. Die and we get rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lake starting to fire. Good luck everyone rochester to Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: When was the last time we had a negatively tilted trough over the northeast. That seems to be what we need to transport moisture off the Atlantic over central New York. I can remember storms with a negatively tilted trough watching bands of snow moving from southeast to northwest with intense snowfall rates. The storm of January 4,1994 dropped 10 inches in 2 hours in Syracuse at midday. Business let their employees out at the height of the storm resulting in may people being trapped on highways. Wow! That would have been quite the thing to see! I'm sure the roads were a fiasco. I would love for us to get some of those negatively tilted troughs. 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: That next one is definitely cutting and it's going to bring in a glorious arctic SW flow behind it. JUST, NO. We are finally building a snowpack. Take your stupid SW flow and shove it. Joking...mostly. 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Dude, too early!!! LOL. slap you like a hysterical woman in the 1950’s. Honestly , I feel same. LOL!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ICON definitely a little less amped so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Still not a bad run. Hits western ny. I almost can bet you this goes farther north west. Every storm has this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Not a bad spot to be in at this point out. All depends on where that primary goes ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Cold storm too on icon upper teens to mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Still not a bad run. Hits western ny. I almost can bet you this goes farther north west. Every storm has this year. I'd like to believe that, everything has this year but that doesn't mean this will. I'd like to see more dancing partners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 True. The December storm I believe looked very similar to this several days ahead. I just hope that IF we can actually get the "NW trend" to work for us, that more us can benefit than Binghamton this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: True. The December storm I believe looked very similar to this several days ahead. I just hope that IF we can actually get the "NW trend" to work for us, that more us can benefit than Binghamton this time. I'll take half of that storm in a heartbeat and wouldn't complain if there isn't a flake the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gotta remember that snow output map on icon is really low ratio. Always is.i don't know why. Below 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Gotta remember that snow output map on icon is really low ratio. Always is.i don't know why. Below 10 to 1. Not impressive outside of finger lakes and HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 You getting shadowed from east wind? Are you that little green spot east of Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The 18z Jester still likes WNY but not much else for now...strange look to it as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gotta remember that snow output map on icon is really low ratio. Always is.i don't know why. Below 10 to 1. Yeah, I have noticed that many times. The icon's snowfall maps are horrible. I think it thinks lower elevations are below sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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