TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Some nice fluff coming down here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 As for the upcoming lake effect potential, there is only one 12 hour period with a vertical profile that I think looks conducive to fairly deep pseudo organized lake effect. That time is from 12am Friday until noon Friday. I'm definitely rusty on skewT's but I think in this scenario, we take the lake temp as the starting point for the surface air temp and then ride up the moist adiabat until we hit the ambient air temp (I think we assume that the air over the lake is saturated so we don't have to use saturation mixing ratio line?). So starting around 5c gives us a pretty deep column. Most importantly though is that the atmosphere is saturated up through 700mb which gives us a lot of background moisture to work with. After noon on Friday the profiles start to degrade pretty quickly By Friday night the inversion is crashing down hard. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Snow increasing in Irondequoit. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few low density inches over night! All eyes on 0z runs. Could this be the big one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Icon once again is a great run for us. Man I would love it to be correct. How good is the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Icon once again is a great run for us. Man I would love it to be correct. How good is the model. It's a terrible model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's a terrible model even so it has been consistent. Maybe it will fall on its sword. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: even so it has been consistent. Maybe it will fall on its sword. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 BGM actually referenced it in the long term this morning. Think it's the first time I've seen a nws office even mention it before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Icon once again is a great run for us. Man I would love it to be correct. How good is the model. Got the map with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 KBUF mentioned it as well, I posted it earlier, and they are not liking the LES potential for tomorrow- Fri & Sat so we'll see! 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM actually referenced it in the long term this morning. Think it's the first time I've seen a nws office even mention it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Got the map with ratios RLMAO, why??? they never even come close to verifying but I guess its for enjoyment purposes, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yes. It is. I find if you you get under intense banding though it does work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Some meso models for next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gfs better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gfs better.. it is gorgeous. CCB pivots right over us. 24 hour + snowstorm with ratios in that CCB probably pushing 18:1 + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Look at how close the East Coast came to a truly massive storm today/tomorrow. That low that is forming over NC right now explodes to 958mb in 30 hours, spurred on by that huge chunk of arctic air dropping out of Eastern Canada (and it's not even a clean phase). The 500mb low is a thing of beauty as it dives through the Northeast. If only it had phased just 500 further West..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Look at how close the East Coast came to a truly massive storm today/tomorrow. That low that is forming over NC right now explodes to 958mb in 30 hours, spurred on by that huge chunk of arctic air dropping out of Eastern Canada (and it's not even a clean phase). The 500mb low is a thing of beauty as it dives through the Northeast. If only it had phased just 500 further West..... what is your opinion about the gfs? How often do you see the finger lakes region get CCB action. Seems like it would not be very common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: I think Wayne County is definitely the sweet spot for Friday. The radar is going to miss a lot of it so we'll need some obs from the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Notice the mexico bay convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: what is your opinion about the gfs? How often do you see the finger lakes region get CCB action. Seems like it would not be very common. Do you mean in the latest run when the low is stalling over NYC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Do you mean in the latest run when the low is stalling over NYC? Yes that run. The 00z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It happens in the big storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Notice the mexico bay convergence. I hate Mexico Bay convergence because I always feel like they do well on Westerly winds and then somehow also do well in NW regimes too. So f-ing greedy. Share the wealth. No, I see it though, its nice the models are picking it up. I need a GB connection to really be in the game and those are so damn transient... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Snowing steady here in walworth. Light but steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: Yes that run. The 00z gfs. It certainly can happen but these transfer situations usually shunt those heavier bands downstate. In the big event downstate this winter (BGM 41"), the parent low seemed to hang on longer than forecast which allowed that conveyor to setup further North and West than normal. There was also a major blocking pattern in that storm which forced the precip shield to hit a wall. Anyway, it can definitely happen but favors places further East IMO. I also would be cautious about the end of that run when the low is jumping around as it sits and spins. It rarely hangs around that long in reality and the variability of where it finally stalls could make or break us. We need heavy snow on the front end from the primary low. All that said, the 0z GFS was a huge step in the right direction, but some might say its happening too soon, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 See its snowing out at airport. Big fluffy flakes delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: It certainly can happen but these transfer situations usually shunt those heavier bands downstate. In the big event downstate this winter (BGM 41"), the parent low seemed to hang on longer than forecast which allowed that conveyor to setup further North and West than normal. There was also a major blocking pattern in that storm which forced the precip shield to hit a wall. Anyway, it can definitely happen but favors places further East IMO. I also would be cautious about the end of that run when the low is jumping around as it sits and spins. It rarely hangs around that long in reality and the variability of where it finally stalls could make or break us. We need heavy snow on the front end from the primary low. All that said, the 0z GFS was a huge step in the right direction, but some might say its happening too soon, lolz. I got it. So the CCB would be nice obviously but places Syracuse and west really should not count on it. We need to root for good snow from the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: what is your opinion about the gfs? How often do you see the finger lakes region get CCB action. Seems like it would not be very common. As a winter lover, I would in general find Geneva a tough place to live in. My wife and I love the town, countryside and walking along the lake there though. It just seems to be in a lake effect snow hole. You miss out on most of the wind directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now