TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Rgem through 84 just as artic push comes in. Shows storm snow. Minor break then a period of lake snow monroe wayne County. The at end of run the artic push and renewed lake snow starting. Eh. I just see scattered snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Seems sort of stupid for BGM to include so many counties in the same advisory. Onondaga and Madison are not looking at ice, so why make it confusing and include us in an advisory discussing ice in southern counties? Most models are showing us in the 5 inch range at a minimum. I actually find it humorous how often they overlook Syracuse for its size. They rarely discuss weather for here and breeze right by it. Yeah- they are terrible and I told this story many times. We were getting crushed with LES years ago and had 6” on the ground @6pm with no signs of letting up. I called the office in Binghamton to ask why there was not even an advisory posted. The MET asked what I was talking about. I informed him there was a stationary band sitting over northern Onondaga. 30 minutes later, a LES advisory was posted. That’s also when I learned that they primarily rely on the Canadian model. The guy was really nice and shared some good information. The call ended and I thought to myself, “did that just happen?” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This was ukmet into saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Yeah- they are terrible and I told this story many times. We were getting crushed with LES years ago and had 6” on the ground @6pm with no signs of letting up. I called the office in Binghamton to ask why there was not even an advisory posted. The MET asked what I was talking about. I informed him there was a stationary band sitting over northern Onondaga. 30 minutes later, a LES advisory was posted. That’s also when I learned that they primarily rely on the Canadian model. The guy was really nice and shared some good information. The call ended and I thought to myself, “did that just happen?” Rely on Canadian model for lake snow? They do seem pretty good for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Yeah- they are terrible and I told this story many times. We were getting crushed with LES years ago and had 6” on the ground @6pm with no signs of letting up. I called the office in Binghamton to ask why there was not even an advisory posted. The MET asked what I was talking about. I informed him there was a stationary band sitting over northern Onondaga. 30 minutes later, a LES advisory was posted. That’s also when I learned that they primarily rely on the Canadian model. The guy was really nice and shared some good information. The call ended and I thought to myself, “did that just happen?” Thanks for sharing...and speaking up for the "forgotten ones." We'll have to keep these guys on their feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well... this is fun. Meso’s coming in hot for thruway zone. I should’ve waited to make my prediction. I think fate took my bait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks for sharing...and speaking up for the "forgotten ones." We'll have to keep these guys on their feet. Lmao! Yes- they need to stop worrying about the GDamn finger lakes and their backyard. Would rather NWS Buffalo takes over our county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rely on Canadian model for lake snow? They do seem pretty good for it Rely on Canadian in general as I asked which models they tend to favor over others. This was an awkwardly long convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Gfs looks nice for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Roc's yearly snowfall (on a good year) in two days. And great point BW, November 2014 is one of the most impressive snow events anywhere in North America IMO. Accurate measurements were truly impossible in the heaviest bands, I think places made a run at 100" A official station in Elma recorded 92", i measured 88" here with a max depth of 52" and places Northeast of me had higher QPF between both events. Someone definitely got 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Should see some decent NW flow LES on Friday. Moisture is lacking a little bit but should be at least a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I like 6 to 12 inches from Thursday into Saturday. Monroe wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Not a huge hit at once but will pile up over time. Would not surprise me a bit if someone gets over a foot just from lake effect. My best guess would target webster penfield walworth ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Instability will be extreme. Winds will be moderate. May be a connection for a while from georgian Bay. Only draw back is ample background moisture. But its not bone dry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Instability will be extreme. Winds will be moderate. May be a connection for a while from georgian Bay. My interest peaks when I read mention of a Georgian Bay connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Round 1 of lake snow after storm. This is from 00z cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Monday/Tuesdays storm looks wonky. Looks like a blockbuster in the Midwest and then gets sheared. $5 to whomever goes to the central PA board and reminds them that big storms always come NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Monday/Tuesdays storm looks wonky. Looks like a blockbuster in the Midwest and then gets sheared. $5 to whomever goes to the central PA board and reminds them that big storms always come NW! That sheared storm is a miller b, a LP that transfers to off the coast. They can work out for parts of upstate NY...lots of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Cmc through Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, SyracuseStorm said: Lmao! Yes- they need to stop worrying about the GDamn finger lakes and their backyard. Would rather NWS Buffalo takes over our county. I’m about as far north as you can be in the BGM forecast area and might as well be in Siberia as far as mesoscale events are concerned. There have been lake snow events that are entirely north of the route 31 corridor that Binghamton totally ignores. Before the NWS consolidated there was a forecast office at KSYR. I’m sure the weather in northern Onondaga County wasn’t ignored then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Was just looking through old weather bookmarks and found this link for Meteograms. They only have one for Buffalo, but this is just such a clever and intuitive way to lay out an incredible amount of information. You can see how all three systems during the next week will system pass through the atmosphere in that top graph (via temp profiles and moisture). Of particular interest is that tiny window where extremely deep arctic air intersects a little blob of moisture on Friday Morning (Thickness lines flirting with sub 5000dm). That seems like the window for the best lake effect. Anyway I can't get over just how useful that one image is. I'm definitely going to be coming back to it more often. Wish they would crunch one for KROC. Looking further ahead you can see the next system and the thermal profile concerns that we will be dealing with.... http://wxmaps.org/meteograms.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Was just looking through old weather bookmarks and found this link for Meteograms. They only have one for Buffalo, but this is just such a clever and intuitive way to lay out an incredible amount of information. You can see how all three systems during the next week will system pass through the atmosphere in that top graph (via temp profiles and moisture). Of particular interest is that tiny window where extremely deep arctic air intersects a little blob of moisture on Friday Morning (Thickness lines flirting with sub 5000dm). That seems like the window for the best lake effect. Anyway I can't get over just how useful that one image is. I'm definitely going to be coming back to it more often. Wish they would crunch one for KROC. Looking further ahead you can see the next system and the thermal profile concerns that we will be dealing with.... http://wxmaps.org/meteograms.php Thanks. I've been trying to find this for awhile. I had it bookmarked on my last computer but haven't been able to find it on my new one. Have you used pivotal for their soundings? That is pretty useful too. Rochester for Friday LES event GFS GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 See euro came in juicy. Gives roc 6 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Holy smokes precip that is moving into Chautauqua County is already IP/ZR. Not a good sign for those of us near BUF. May start as a straight mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 European was suppressed with next weekends system, obviously only 1 run but it's a possibility with strong HP near by.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Holy smokes precip that is moving into Chautauqua County is already IP/ZR. Not a good sign for those of us near BUF. May start as a straight mix. Cold air is deep from south towns to the lake plains, not as worried about that as I am about the dry slot tight behind it...NWS discussed this in their AFD as a possible bust low, even though model QPF is suggesting 3-7” across the Niagara Frontier...I think we see 1-3” at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: European was suppressed with next weekends system, obviously only 1 run but it's a possibility with strong HP near by.. Which is odd because if that’s the scenario then the following system, which the GFS has as a massive cutter, may not in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah hrrr is picking it up.. Dry slot moves in by late afternoon according to this model.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Gfs composite looks like crap lol Maybe a few hour burst of snow yet clown maps show a wide area of 6+.. Now I doubt it looks this terrible but who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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