SyracuseStorm Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: No matter the QPF these models spit out the “official “ forecasts are going to be for 3-6 inches and they will probably verify. Edit: I hope I’m wrong! Or local Syr mets that forecast 2-5” for every event with 8” south and north west (Tug Hill) of the city. Use the same snow maps over and over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para FWIW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Well we can kiss the record low snowfall for KSYR goodbye, RLMAO, never really thought we'd come close but one can only imagine what 1931-32 was like for them to recieve 32" of snow for the season???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1920 and 1930 where horrible for snow. Not sure on Temps but this was way before global warming. And I believe was much warmer period than now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, tim123 said: I agree 6 is probally the max for system snow. But I could see a 6 to 12 in on top of that south south east of lake fri saturday. I see only about a 12 hour window when vertical profiles will be supportive for lake effect; 7pm Thursday through about 7am Friday. Factors working in our favor are super cold surface temps and almost a due northerly flow. After that, low level moisture is pretty scarce and a strong subsidence inversion lowers our equilibrium levels to about 900mb, which doesnt allow much vertical growth at all. Looks like a 1-2 inch kind of thing depending on where you are. Fluff factor will be huge, so I guess you could inflate those numbers to 2-4 in the best case scenario. Personally I'm not expecting more than some passing snow showers. That high pressure is going to squash the shit out of anything that trys to form . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Well we can kiss the record low snowfall for KSYR goodbye, RLMAO, never really thought we'd come close but one can only imagine what 1931-32 was like for them to recieve 32" of snow for the season???? That is also the year that Rochester set there all time record low snowfall. What a nightmare of a year. It did happen right during the great depression...is it plausible that the horrible economic conditions somehow prevented accurate measurements from being taken that year? Like the guy measuring was probably starving to death and was like "**** this, I'm not wasting time measuring snow, I gotta find some damn food" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 In happier news, that next noteworthy storm (Feb 1st) continues to want to slide just south of our Area keeping us mostly snow or a mix at worst. However, that follow up storm next week seems like its going to be the cutter to end all cutters. The trough digging in way out West means serious business and will really amplify the Eastern Ridge. I don't see a way out of that disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That is also the year that Rochester set there all time record low snowfall. What a nightmare of a year. It did happen right during the great depression...is it plausible that the horrible economic conditions somehow prevented accurate measurements from being taken that year? Like the guy measuring was probably starving to death and was like "**** this, I'm not wasting time measuring snow, I gotta find some damn food" Good catch Delta as I never really thought of the time period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 HRRR with a deeper, further south solution. Hard to see an LP booking it from due south of Pitt to over central Lake Ontario. I’ll be hoping on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Snow throug teusday on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: In happier news, that next noteworthy storm (Feb 1st) continues to want to slide just south of our Area keeping us mostly snow or a mix at worst. However, that follow up storm next week seems like its going to be the cutter to end all cutters. The trough digging in way out West means serious business and will really amplify the Eastern Ridge. I don't see a way out of that disaster. Interesting. If the Feb 1 storm delivers - especially with the cold hanging onto the current pack plus tomorrow - flooding may be a legit concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 31 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Or local Syr mets that forecast 2-5” for every event with 8” south and north west (Tug Hill) of the city. Use the same snow maps over and over What I hate is when they use their in house model to produce a snowfall map then despite what it puts out they give their standard forecast. You could have the model put 8 inches over your area then they will give a general forecast of 3-5 and just ignore the model. Why even use the model then? Just draw a map showing what your forecast is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is exactly why we need a -NAO in Mid-Winter because if there wasn't any blocking, this SLP would be headed for KDET and we'd be seeing mainly liquid so thank God for the -NAO, lol! I was alive back then but really don't remember much about the weather as I was an infant, lol! This paragraph from CPC is interesting! The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. The wintertime NAO also exhibits significant multi-decadal variability (Hurrell 1995, Chelliah and Bell 2005). For example, the negative phase of the NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. During this approximately 24-year interval, there were four prominent periods of at least three years each in which the negative phase was dominant and the positive phase was notably absent. In fact, during the entire period the positive phase was observed in the seasonal mean only three times, and it never appeared in two consecutive years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Some serious CSI banding going on in IA. I'm hoping we see something similar but I doubt it as it'll be ripped apart by that SHP to our N but ya never know! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Who says we can't see snow with a -PNA, lol? Looks like the -AO coupled with a -NAO trumps a Pacific shit show!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Kbgm maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 If you notice, we had a +phase from mid Nov to now and it did absolutely nothing for our sensible weather here in the Eastern GL's but the opposite is occurring now but now we have a -AO and -NAO so the PAC doesn't dictate what occurs for our weather especially in mid-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 59 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: In happier news, that next noteworthy storm (Feb 1st) continues to want to slide just south of our Area keeping us mostly snow or a mix at worst. However, that follow up storm next week seems like its going to be the cutter to end all cutters. The trough digging in way out West means serious business and will really amplify the Eastern Ridge. I don't see a way out of that disaster. Thats going to hurt but fact is we should have seen a lot more of those if it hadnt been for the blocking pattern of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The CNYcentral (channels 3&5) forecast give some love to Dave, Tim and all of us in northern Onondaga County and southern Oswego County 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Wow a real map. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The CNYcentral (channels 3&5) forecast give some love to Dave, Tim and all of us in northern Onondaga County and southern Oswego County The 6” plus section looks like the back half of a sand tiger shark. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Mammoth lakes area. I want this. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The CNYcentral (channels 3&5) forecast give some love to Dave, Tim and all of us in northern Onondaga County and southern Oswego County I like how their maps are skewed so that the area with highest population density is a thinner appearance and harder to read. Must be the in-house model output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 22 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The CNYcentral (channels 3&5) forecast give some love to Dave, Tim and all of us in northern Onondaga County and southern Oswego County Well- that’s is a change! Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Mammoth lakes area. I want this. Ummm....that is absolutely amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, SyracuseStorm said: Ummm....that is absolutely amazing! It really is!! Wonder if there are any cabins up there where you could hunker down and ride out one of these storms. If so, sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 That's the energy for our potential Miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, tim123 said: Mammoth lakes area. I want this. lol, that's a forecast of 85-110" (basically 7-9 feet) of snow over 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, PerintonMan said: lol, that's a forecast of 85-110" (basically 7-9 feet) of snow over 48 hours. We got pretty close to that here in Nov. 2014. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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