rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 to 1 top with ratios bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para and GFS.. Ratios are pretty close to 10-1.. Time to sit back and wait now.. Yeah, this is a lock for Ksyr on N/E from there so it just adds to the glacier that we've been forming. I've had solid cover since the first LES band that mainly affected me and CNY, lol, so it's been a while since I've seen any pavement or driveway around the crib!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, this is a lock for Ksyr on N/E from there so it just adds to the glacier that we've been forming. I've had solid cover since the first LES band that mainly affected me and CNY, lol, so it's been a while since I've seen any pavement or driveway around the crib!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Excellent duration of snowpack here this winter, will continue after this as well. Good chance of subzero nights coming up as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 A weak sfc low over the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight will then track across our forecast area on Tuesday. While this will guarantee that our region will experience wintry precipitation...there is still some uncertainty as to how far north the mixed pcpn will get. At this juncture...a wintry mix is anticipated for the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday with snow and sleet accumulations forecast to be in the vcnty of 1-2 inches. Meanwhile sites further north should pick up mainly wet snow to the tue of 3-5 inches. Given the more northerly track of the system and after collaboration with adjacent offices...have expanded the area for the winter wx advisory for the remaining counties (Ern Lake Ontario region) Tuesday night...colder air in the wake of the exiting sfc low will enable any residual mixed pcpn to change back to just snow. Snow amounts expected Tues night will range from an inch or so over the western counties to as much as three more inches east of Lake Ontario. -- End Changed Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Here is the advisory.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z NAM a agrees...still snowing: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Where ever any stronger banding sets up could overachieve(or at least hit the high number lol) but it's hard to trust the models wrt precip.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. * WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Cortland, Chenango, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of steady light snow will lift across the region Tuesday morning, and will stall out along or just north of the New York State Thruway in the early afternoon. Further to south, snow will mix with or change to freezing rain or freezing drizzle, with precipitation becoming spotty in coverage. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be common, with 3 to 5 inches north of the Thruway and in a few spots in the Catskills. Ice accumulations will generally be around one tenth of an inch, with localized areas of up to a quarter of an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts of up to 8 inches possible across portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. * WHERE...Southern Vermont, the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Lake George Saratoga region, central and northern Taconics, and southern Adirondacks of eastern New York, and western Massachusetts. * WHEN...From noon Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibilities. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the Tuesday evening, and Wednesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could briefly reach one inch per hour Tuesday afternoon. Seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: KBUF punted on the whole event for next weekend and said nothing at all about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Not surprised at all. They hate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not surprised at all. They hate snow. And yet they’ll write 8 paragraphs on a SE LES event followed by “STAY TUNED!” It gets annoying. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 For the snowiest populated area of country they sure are reluctant to forecast it or embrace it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Yeah only when it hits a 5 mile wide area in downtown Buffalo. They talk about it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And yet they’ll write 8 paragraphs on a SE LES event followed by “STAY TUNED!” It gets annoying. Lol A week out no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just was reading forecast discussion. It was hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And yet they’ll write 8 paragraphs on a SE LES event followed by “STAY TUNED!” It gets annoying. Lol Well 3-6" of snow over 24 hours isn't going to really impact travel around here, that is run of the mill type stuff. Lake effect you can get 3-6" in one hour and severely impacts all travel. Pretty big difference IMO. They talk about it more because it has more of an impact. KBUF I don't think has ever shut down from a synoptic event, only lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Thats bs. If buffalo has Lake snow advisory for 3 to 6 inches they will talk at nauseum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Been reading there afd for 25 30 years. They used to be better. But have gone down hill big time in past 5 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Plus, Tim is talking about next weeks event which could be much bigger. Not to mention, BUF is only 1/100 of the geographical area and maybe 1/3 of the population of their coverage. And Rochester HAS been shut down by synoptic several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Plus, Tim is talking about next weeks event which could be much bigger. Not to mention, BUF is only 1/100 of the geographical area and maybe 1/3 of the population of their coverage. And Rochester HAS been shut down by synoptic several times. Too much uncertainty next week to give it much thought. Tomorrows system is 3-5", not much to talk about really. What do you want them to say? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gfs went for the syracuse area with just under an inch LE.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There certainly down playing lake potential at end of week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs went for the syracuse area with just under an inch LE.. No matter the QPF these models spit out the “official “ forecasts are going to be for 3-6 inches and they will probably verify. Edit: I hope I’m wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs went for the syracuse area with just under an inch LE.. GFS Best.Model.Evah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: No matter the QPF these models spit out the “official “ forecasts are going to be for 3-6 inches and they will probably verify. Edit: I hope I’m wrong! Thinking the same thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I agree 6 is probally the max for system snow. But I could see a 6 to 12 in on top of that south south east of lake fri saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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