TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Thing is its weakening rapidly as is approaches ny. So warm air can only get to a point. That's what I was thinking...along with the cold air to the north...but it keeps going north and north and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 One thing about RGEM is has much more snow for New England then most guidance..Not saying it won't happen but definitely somewhat of an outlier over there.. I guess it's not that different from the european just a little heavier on the precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Looks like a solid 4"-8" for most (Roc on N/E), not a bad little system if it comes to fruition.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, 96blizz said: RGEM at 10:1 -not bad. This event always had a low ceiling so a nice snowy day works. I like the 4-6” again 90 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like a solid 4"-8" for most (Roc on N/E), not a bad little system if it comes to fruition.. Should of added buffalo, didn't realize consensus has right around 4ish there..So Buffalo North and east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Nws seems hesitant to issue advisories farther east for what ever reason lol I think next update they might.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Interesting that some of the models have the heavier snow axis going from SW to NE,, while others have it going NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Staring to get some sort of idea for next weeks storms. Icon has it now too. Same look as euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para and GFS.. Ratios are pretty close to 10-1.. Time to sit back and wait now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFSs seemed to have halted their northward movement with the 12Z runs. Hopefully that is the farthest north possibility that we see them and the NAMs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: GFSs seemed to have halted their northward movement with the 12Z runs. Hopefully that is the farthest north possibility that we see them and the NAMs go. Maybe we see the correction south now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: Maybe we see the correction south now... I've secretly been hoping that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: Maybe we see the correction south now... There’s always a correction south. Especially on the NAM products. Let’s see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Everything now is just model noise lol Locked in at 4"-8" ..25 mile "wobbles" are to be expected..No sense worrying about an exact number lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Everything now is just model noise lol Locked in at 4"-8" ..25 mile "wobbles" are to be expected..No sense worrying about an exact number lol I bet local Mets in Syracuse will forecast 3-5 maybe 3-6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 D7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gfs kind of a mess for D7.. Similar situation as this one but it brings more warmth with it..If HP retreats to quickly the storm goes north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Beyond 3 4 days when isnt the gfs a mess. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Cmc hammers South shore with lake snow fri into sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: D7 Miller B... these are my favorite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc hammers South shore with lake snow fri into sat Yup (Kuchera may be accurate in the cold airmass) - about 6" from first storm and 8-10" from LE: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ukmet through Saturday. Gives a max of 1.25 in wayne County. So 5 6 inches from storm. Figure 12 to one ratios with that. That leaves .4 to .7 of lake effect. At 20 to 1 thats 8 to 14 inches on top of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Ukmet through Saturday. Gives a max of 1.25 in wayne County. So 5 6 inches from storm. Figure 12 to one ratios with that. That leaves .4 to .7 of lake effect. At 20 to 1 thats 8 to 14 inches on top of storm. Nice. You’re ratios are a bit high (to be kind) but nice! I’d bet ratios closer to 8:1 and 15:1. 20:1 is only realized with that rare 0F chimney snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 to one for storm snow. 20 to one is easy for lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 20 to 1 was the ratios we just had from lake snow dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: 12 to one for storm snow. 20 to one is easy for lake snow. NWS is mentioning "wet" snow for the first storm so I'd go with 8:1. I'd be convinced with the 20:1 for the LE afterwards though. Either way a nice 12"+ over the next 5 days would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: 20 to 1 was the ratios we just had from lake snow dave. That's true. I havent looked at soundings for the tomorrow system but I always worry about the "rice snow" effect limiting accums due to poor dendrite growth. No idea if that's on the table though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Dave you got clown maps from last night's euro. Was a big hit for next weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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