tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The only thing buffalo gets jazzed about is lake snow for buffalo proper. Thats it. Been that way since I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Models trending towards my thinking...don't get your hopes up too much on this one! LP's going into WPA or SWNY flood the lake plain with relatively warm air.. and models don't handle that well. So basically it goes back to us hoping for a southern track so we get an inch or two instead of a northern track that would give other locations a decent amount...but because of the lake plain, we will get mix/rain? Tough place for synoptic events, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Models trending towards my thinking...don't get your hopes up too much on this one! LP's going into WPA or SWNY flood the lake plain with relatively warm air.. and models don't handle that well. That’s always a shit track. Always. The warmth flies right up the lake plains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We need a track into CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Icon came in a bit north as well fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 But gives best snow to roc even with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs looks like euro now with early next week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: But gives best snow to roc even with that track Gotta sniff the taint.... If the Great Lakes Magnet pulls the Low any farther North, we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: So basically it goes back to us hoping for a southern track so we get an inch or two instead of a northern track that would give other locations a decent amount...but because of the lake plain, we will get mix/rain? Tough place for synoptic events, isn't it? Only with tracks like this. We have had a dearth of southern coastal systems the last decade. Also, if the antecedent airmass was colder, we'd have a better chance of p-type being snow...and that still may happen with the recent snows helping to hold the cold air at a deeper level to prevent IP/ZR...but, it is not a widespread deep snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Only with tracks like this. We have had a dearth of southern coastal systems the last decade. Also, if the antecedent airmass was colder, we'd have a better chance of p-type being snow...and that still may happen with the recent snows helping to hold the cold air at a deeper level to prevent IP/ZR...but, it is not a widespread deep snowpack. Thanks. Yes, where are the coastal systems? It's odd hearing about the airmass not being colder, as it has been a cold weekend. Just shows how shallow the cold has been this year. Hopefully we can keep the Low south of NY/PA border. Most recent RAP also came north. Looks great for the Thruway corridor, but getting a bit nervous...about the points you have made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: But gives best snow to roc even with that track ROC never does well with a track north of the border of PA. The warmth always gets further north and we lose the upper air support for any enhancement. Hopefully the Euro solution holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Mix gets to Syracuse on the GFS..You can probably add a few miles lol Soon I'll be mixing.. Maybe the gfs is to far north. Ur buying the GFS on this? Seems whacked as per norm. But maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hope this jump is just the typical 18z nonsense. I’ll wait for the 0z suite before worrying about taint. It was about a 40 mile jump north with the 0C line. Brings trouble to the 5 and 20 line. My bigger concern is it would step on any enhancement the south shore could see. It’s ridiculous to be over analyzing this little storm and yet...here I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Doesn't sound very impressive here...lol 2-4 on top of an existing snowpack without a rainstorm in between sounds like heaven to me, haha. I just want to build a base and hold it. The conditions off piste at the local resorts are actually getting really nice. A couple more small storms like this and the woods will all be in play! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Think Thursday into Friday may be rough cold squally windy. Could be a 3 to 5 inch deal monroe wayne and I think ontario County gets in on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 North flow goes nw for a bit then back to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: 2-4 on top of an existing snowpack without a rainstorm in between sounds like heaven to me, haha. I just want to build a base and hold it. The conditions off piste at the local resorts are actually getting really nice. A couple more small storms like this and the woods will all be in play! I was referring to BUFs discussion. I'll gladly take this as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: North flow goes nw for a bit then back to north Maybe a little thermal troughing as well to help a more NW wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yeah certainly possible lake i think is still above normal i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Middle of lake is still in low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Models trending towards my thinking...don't get your hopes up too much on this one! LP's going into WPA or SWNY flood the lake plain with relatively warm air.. and models don't handle that well. I would normally agree but with this strong blocking up top I could see this actually trending south with time as it gets squished by the confluent flow. Not like we’re looking at a big hit either way though but would be nice to stay all frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 850s bottom out around minus 23. Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I would normally agree but with this strong blocking up top I could see this actually trending south with time as it gets squished by the confluent flow. Not like we’re looking at a big hit either way though but would be nice to stay all frozen. Not a bad point.... It's also a weakening LP, which adds to your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I would normally agree but with this strong blocking up top I could see this actually trending south with time as it gets squished by the confluent flow. Not like we’re looking at a big hit either way though but would be nice to stay all frozen. That's a good point too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Primary definitely holding on longer on these 18z runs.. We will know if it's real or not at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z EURO ticked north. But basically same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Primary definitely holding on longer on these 18z runs.. We will know if it's real or not at 0z. Yeah, the Para GFS snow map looks much worse than previous runs for central NY. Any more north and we're out of the game. I wish we could just have a synoptic system where we didn't have to worry about it too far south to all of a sudden being too far north and warm punches and dry slots, etc............... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, the Para GFS snow map looks much worse than previous runs for central NY. Any more north and we're out of the game. I wish we could just have a synoptic system where we didn't have to worry about it too far south to all of a sudden being too far north and warm punches and dry slots, etc............... Yep! I remember those first two cutters where Toronto scored and I said, “sometimes tracks get laid early”. It kind of fits with La Niña. But it’s too early to quit on this one. This is probably just a waffle. Euro is steadfast. I’m hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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