wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Total precipitation on the euro.. As LEK said need to watch out for a potential dry slot if the system gets to far north.. I would also caution against WB Kuchera maps which are always way higher than PW.. Not terribly cold aloft, more so at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like a real shot of artic air end of week. Could spark some decent lake snows on a n nw flow. Usually targets monroe wayne ontario counties. Not huge deal but early guess 3 to 5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro having a awsome run today. Lol. A Miller b that hammers western Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Total precipitation on the euro.. As LEK said need to watch out for a potential dry slot if the system gets to far north.. I would also caution against WB Kuchera maps which are always way higher than PW.. Not terribly cold aloft, more so at the surface.. Yeah. I hate kuchera maps. In this case I think it was an inch or two apart. So I threw it out there. I think enhancement is the real wild card. Rochester can easily double global outputs with these tracks. 4 becomes 8. Not a huge storm just a great track for a change. Sorry Bufwx lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro having a awsome run today. Lol. A Miller b that hammers western Central NY. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Something remarkable happened at BUF yesterday...We had our first below normal day in 23 days and the first one in January. That makes a paltry 2 out of the last 35 or so days below normal. That's a pretty crazy statistic. We're at +6.9 for January. January 2020 was +8.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Show the clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just for Tim 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS for next system 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Thanks Dave. Obviously I will take it. But don't expect it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Some better than others, still some spread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS for next system That 1040HP in C-CA thats dropping into the lower 48 is enormous as it encompasses most of S-C Canada both east and west, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 A day away and still some significant spread amongst ensembles, just nuts but it only occurs when were to see snow otherwise it would of been locked had it been a cutter or something that was gonna drop rain or a mix! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wow, the DelMarVa might see a blizzard next week...according the GFS. Looks like the 18z NAM is coming along the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 NAM looks real north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM looks real north Looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM looks real north Well, would you look at that!?!? Perhaps "our" curse is on winter break? At least for one run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3k isn't buying it. But it's always a stingy mofo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Rap is also on board, with a nice 3 to 6 inches for all of us W/C NY Snow weenies...this is at the very end of its run with snow still ongoing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like things are definitely trending more interesting for this week, especially for those of us south of Lake Ontario. After this system comes through, lake effect snow showers will probably keep it looking wintry from the sky as well. Thursday night and Friday could see snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Kbuf updated map, general 2"-4" less north more south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Rgem 4 to 6 buf roc syr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The main focus through the short term period will revolve around a relatively minor snow event late Monday night through Tuesday night. A well defined mid level wave will cross Iowa Monday night, then open up and de-amplify with time as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday. At the surface low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Monday night before moving along the NY/PA border Tuesday. The entire system surface and aloft will be weakening with time as it moves east towards our area. The snow in this system will come in several different batches, as is often the case with synoptic systems. An initial wing of warm advection and isentropic upglide will reach the western Southern Tier by late Monday night, then spread into the Buffalo and Rochester areas by, or shortly after daybreak Tuesday, finally reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region in the afternoon. The steadiest snow and best accumulations will focus with this initial period of snow. Later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night some light snow will linger, with a minor uptick in coverage overnight Tuesday night as weak DPVA crosses the eastern Great Lakes with the mid level wave, and northeast flow off Lake Ontario provides a little added moisture. Snowfall with this system continues to look minor, with 2-4 inches total expected in most locations. The area that is most likely to be in the higher end of that range is from the Genesee Valley to western Finger Lakes where forcing and moisture look to maximize. Main change with this forecast cycle was to bring POPS and measurable snow a little farther north across the eastern Lake Ontario region given the farther north trend in model guidance. Precipitation type will be all snow for most of the area. The GFS and GEM bring a minor warm layer aloft into the western Southern Tier Tuesday, while the NAM keeps the column colder. Given the model uncertainty, stayed close to continuity with a chance of sleet mixing in across the Southern Tier. The system will exit off the east coast Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture and northerly upslope flow may still produce a few light snow showers south of Lake Ontario in the morning, but this should end in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs north. Brings rain into Southern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Kbgm map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Mix gets to Syracuse on the GFS..You can probably add a few miles lol Soon I'll be mixing.. Maybe the gfs is to far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The main focus through the short term period will revolve around a relatively minor snow event late Monday night through Tuesday night. A well defined mid level wave will cross Iowa Monday night, then open up and de-amplify with time as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday. At the surface low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Monday night before moving along the NY/PA border Tuesday. The entire system surface and aloft will be weakening with time as it moves east towards our area. The snow in this system will come in several different batches, as is often the case with synoptic systems. An initial wing of warm advection and isentropic upglide will reach the western Southern Tier by late Monday night, then spread into the Buffalo and Rochester areas by, or shortly after daybreak Tuesday, finally reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region in the afternoon. The steadiest snow and best accumulations will focus with this initial period of snow. Later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night some light snow will linger, with a minor uptick in coverage overnight Tuesday night as weak DPVA crosses the eastern Great Lakes with the mid level wave, and northeast flow off Lake Ontario provides a little added moisture. Snowfall with this system continues to look minor, with 2-4 inches total expected in most locations. The area that is most likely to be in the higher end of that range is from the Genesee Valley to western Finger Lakes where forcing and moisture look to maximize. Main change with this forecast cycle was to bring POPS and measurable snow a little farther north across the eastern Lake Ontario region given the farther north trend in model guidance. Precipitation type will be all snow for most of the area. The GFS and GEM bring a minor warm layer aloft into the western Southern Tier Tuesday, while the NAM keeps the column colder. Given the model uncertainty, stayed close to continuity with a chance of sleet mixing in across the Southern Tier. The system will exit off the east coast Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture and northerly upslope flow may still produce a few light snow showers south of Lake Ontario in the morning, but this should end in the afternoon. Doesn't sound very impressive here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs is still solid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: Doesn't sound very impressive here...lol "Hitchcock" certainly wrote a "horror" of a weather discussion... the basic tone was "meh" with words like "minor" and "few" scattered throughout. 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Mix gets to Syracuse on the GFS..You can probably add a few miles lol Soon I'll be mixing.. Maybe the gfs is to far north. If we end up in a long period of mixing, I swear..................................................................................... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Models trending towards my thinking...don't get your hopes up too much on this one! LP's going into WPA or SWNY flood the lake plain with relatively warm air.. and models don't handle that well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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