wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z eps are pretty far northwest. I expect a correction on op run tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hrrr is worst model for lake effect IMO. It had buffalo getting 8” as the event was happening. They got nothing lol. Take the rgem and slash qpf by 25-30% 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 18z eps are pretty far northwest. I expect a correction on op run tonight. Meaning possibly a rain event now? Lmao actually why am I asking that could be the only outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looks like many of the 00Z runs are looking yawnirific in terms of our incoming lake event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Wonder if we’ll see a broad area of light snow develop across the Niagara Frontier tonight as the cold front approaches. Upstream radars are fairly active over southern Ontario. Probably won’t amount to more than an inch or 2, but anything is welcome at this point IMBY to cover the grass again. We’re being trolled...look at the squall line that formed heading towards Binghamton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Meaning possibly a rain event now? Lmao actually why am I asking that could be the only outcome... Actually...several of them DO show western NY and possibly to 81 corridor getting rain...lol Either a whiff or come north and rain...some show it staying all snow though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Actually...several of them DO show western NY and possibly to 81 corridor getting rain...lol Either a whiff or come north and rain...some show it staying all snow though. At this point I’m pulling for rain...maybe in some weird twist it’ll snow instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I guess what I meant to say...is the 00Z models showing the flow QUICKLY going too NWly and you know what that means for the weenie zone north of Syracuse... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Meaning possibly a rain event now? Lmao actually why am I asking that could be the only outcome... No I don’t see that on the table, but puts us into accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: We’re being trolled...look at the squall line that formed heading towards Binghamton... Where in the hell did that line come from? Completely misses everyone but southern tier in central NY. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 I like wolfies spot quite a bit for this event. I see a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Locations across Upstate reporting Light Rain right now...including Watertown... lol https://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=NYZ013&local_place=4 Miles SSE Sonyea NY&zoneid=EST&offset=18000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I like wolfies spot quite a bit for this event. I see a foot. I don't like my spot for any event. hahaha.... Can I tranquilize my wife and move us to Springville now? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I don't like my spot for any event. hahaha.... Can I tranquilize my wife and move us to Springville now? 3 feet depth there by tomorrow night. Think I’m ganna head down there this weekend and find highest snow depth haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 3 feet depth there by tomorrow night. Think I’m ganna head down there this weekend and find highest snow depth haha Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Have fun! Maybe put a table where highest depth is and jump off car roof into it for bills mafia weekend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Such a big shift south on the 00Z runs for the lake effect band. It's going to take a huge error for this area to do well. Hopefully I am missing something (besides snowfalls) If the Rgem follows suit, that will be the nail in the coffin. Hoping to get enough to cover up the grass blades (that finally got covered for about 36 hours) that have started poking through with today's overachieving thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looks like a decent 4 to 8 inches in monroe wayne County tomorrow afternoon into sat. . Not a huge event for area but a decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Such a big shift south on the 00Z runs for the lake effect band. It's going to take a huge error for this area to do well. Hopefully I am missing something (besides snowfalls) If the Rgem follows suit, that will be the nail in the coffin. Hoping to get enough to cover up the grass blades (that finally got covered for about 36 hours) that have started poking through with today's overachieving thaw. Cut your grass lower in the fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Absolutely dumping too bad it'll be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Nice little blurb about LES potential for S Shore: A northwest flow regime continues Friday night. The best activity continues to look to set up off Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance is not in particularly good agreement on where a Georgian Bay connection will set up, but pattern recognition suggests this is most likely across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties initially during the first half of the night, possibly drifting southwest towards Rochester late Friday night. If this upstream connection is able to remain in one place long enough advisory criteria snow amounts are possible southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday morning. In Rochester the greater snow amounts would likely focus along Route 104 and into the eastern suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Cut your grass lower in the fall. So true! My apartment complex didn't mow for a long time in the fall so now the grass is super tall....driving me nuts! hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Rgem still gives hope for those in the secondary snow belt that's missed out this year. Hope this works out for us Rochester and Syracuse people! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Rgem says warnings for monroe wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Remember talking about 15 to 20 to 1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Gives marion walworth williamson almost a inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looks like 3 rounds. 1 is the artic front. 2 is connection from lake Huron. Then connection from georgian Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Where in the hell did that line come from? Completely misses everyone but southern tier in central NY. Unbelievable. It's hitting here now and there a reason why BGM not even issuing an SPS for it because its more impressive on radar than it actually is. My temp actually rose from 29 to 32 so it's hardly even sticking to the pavement. Probably only going to amount to a half an inch is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hmm...not sure what to believe. The Rgem is the only model at 00Z showing a good hit for the south lakeshore. The others (check out the GFS at 30 hrs, @Syrmaxlol) are showing much more to the south. BGM actually shifted the "heaviest snowfall" axis to the north and east a bit as of 9 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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