BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It may not be good enough but european is way north.. Pretty big hit actually for all of us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 24hr QPF Fwiw..At least we are in the game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well hello Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 850 low gets pretty far north but still plenty cold enough for a synoptic system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 I feel like I'm more worried about suppression then amped with that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 European was weaker with the high then 0z..1020 isobar was in CNY and now it's in canada.. Strength and location will obviously be key... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty big hit actually for all of us I’m hoping the 2 models now are honing in on the track/idea. System is 5 days away I feel this is the general consensus and my uneducated guess is this is a very likely outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS look good Yeah I’m liking the cluster of lows. It’s out typical 4-8” with a 10” lolli in there. Hopefully this stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I’m liking the cluster of lows. It’s out typical 4-8” with a 10” lolli in there. Hopefully this stays Could this be our first no-frills 'normal' winter storm? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 As the low tracks over southern Quebec on Thursday night, low-level flow becomes more westerly/then northwesterly which along with H85 temps down to -9c will support some lake response most vigorous it appears off Lake Ontario where low-level convergence into the Tug Hill is strongest. Forecast soundings showing sufficient moisture and lake equilibrium levels to around 8kft (Lake Erie) and 11kft (Lake Ontario) easily should support solid advisory amounts east of both lakes and possible warning amounts of 7"/12hr or 9"/24hr. Main issue is steadily shifting winds, so that *could* limit total amounts. No watches for this relatively shorter event attm, but will keep mention in HWO. Later headlines, either warnings or advisories are likely though. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A potent shortwave trough will track across the North Country Thursday night into Friday and additional synoptic moisture and lift will intensify lake snows especially east of Lake Ontario. A secondary cold front will move through late Friday morning and lake effect bands with shift south into the southern shore of Lake Ontario and western Southern Tier. The mobile nature of the lake bands off of both lakes with the passing front will limit some of the snowfall amounts for any one location. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible for Friday with the lake bands. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temperatures will cool to around -16C through Friday night. Lake snows will likely stick around through Friday night as an upper level trough remains overhead. Areas outside of lake bands may see around an inch or so as the cold front moves through the region Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 20s to low 30s Friday with lows in the single digits to teens Friday night. As the trough over the region tracks east and ridging increases over the area, the lake response off of both lakes will diminish through the day on Saturday. Chance POPs for snow showers southeast of the lakes will be in place for most of the day on Saturday, and any snow showers that do occur should be light with only around a half inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 After a mostly dry morning, light snow chances increase west to east Sunday afternoon out ahead of an approaching mid level trough tracking across the Great Lakes region Sunday night and into Monday. Uncertainty still remains fairly high in regards to the synoptic scale dynamics as this feature moves across the Great Lakes. Long range guidance indicates that this shortwave will propogate fast enough to catch up with the longwave ridge, effectively creating a more zonal flow pattern and limiting the amount of vorticity advection taking place overhead. Additionally, model guidance signals a better organized low pressure system tracking east across the Central CONUS, which looks to pass our area to the south. This system may clip the Southern Tier with greater chances for snow Monday afternoon through the evening hours. The placement and track of this system remains highly uncertain due to the spread in the model solutions even with the newest 12z guidance, with the latest ECMWF bringing this system far enough north to bring widespread precip to most of the forecast area. Keeping only chance PoPs through Monday evening until better concensus can be established. Increasing NNW flow and marginal 850mb temps may lead to a few light lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie for Tuesday and Wednesday, though this will be highly dependant on the track of the aforenentioned low as it passes to the east. Highs through the rest of the period will be in the mid to upper 20s for most of the area, with lows in the mid to upper teens and single digits east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty big hit actually for all of us We’re going to St Lucia Saturday, I hope I can’t get into my driveway when I get back 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said: We’re going to St Lucia Saturday, I hope I can’t get into my driveway when I get back Good for you. Enjoy the nice weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: After a mostly dry morning, light snow chances increase west to east Sunday afternoon out ahead of an approaching mid level trough tracking across the Great Lakes region Sunday night and into Monday. Uncertainty still remains fairly high in regards to the synoptic scale dynamics as this feature moves across the Great Lakes. Long range guidance indicates that this shortwave will propogate fast enough to catch up with the longwave ridge, effectively creating a more zonal flow pattern and limiting the amount of vorticity advection taking place overhead. Additionally, model guidance signals a better organized low pressure system tracking east across the Central CONUS, which looks to pass our area to the south. This system may clip the Southern Tier with greater chances for snow Monday afternoon through the evening hours. The placement and track of this system remains highly uncertain due to the spread in the model solutions even with the newest 12z guidance, with the latest ECMWF bringing this system far enough north to bring widespread precip to most of the forecast area. Keeping only chance PoPs through Monday evening until better concensus can be established. Increasing NNW flow and marginal 850mb temps may lead to a few light lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie for Tuesday and Wednesday, though this will be highly dependant on the track of the aforenentioned low as it passes to the east. Highs through the rest of the period will be in the mid to upper 20s for most of the area, with lows in the mid to upper teens and single digits east of Lake Ontario. An actual winter forecast discussion, it's finally here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: We’re going to St Lucia Saturday, I hope I can’t get into my driveway when I get back Nice! We went away one year during the winter when we lived in Michigan. While we're gone, a couple of synoptic storms hit....with freezing rain and sleet mixed back and forth with snow. Our driveway was IMPOSSIBLE to get into after the plows pushing it and it freezing over. One of the few times I did NOT enjoy shoveling my driveway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: We’re going to St Lucia Saturday, I hope I can’t get into my driveway when I get back Nice! Went there 2 years ago for a work trip with the wife! Amazing- you will get sick on the way to the resort of choice as the hills are so steep. It is a true paradise in the West Indies. Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Nice! We went away one year during the winter when we lived in Michigan. While we're gone, a couple of synoptic storms hit....with freezing rain and sleet mixed back and forth with snow. Our driveway was IMPOSSIBLE to get into after the plows pushing it and it freezing over. One of the few times I did NOT enjoy shoveling my driveway! Wait...it snowed WHILE you were away??? Surprise surprise!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wait...it snowed WHILE you were away??? Surprise surprise!!! LOL...Yep! I wasn't even going to focus on that part, but since you mentioned it..... OF COURSE it did!!!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 53 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: We’re going to St Lucia Saturday, I hope I can’t get into my driveway when I get back Winter is cancelled, i hope you know that, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Some hopeful words from KBGM Long Range Disco: Low pressure is expected to track northeastward from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. The 12Z Operational GFS is showing similar biases with a further south and east storm track. Given research into it`s biases this solution was discounted with the forecast weighing heavily on the ECMWF suite, UKMET and CMC. These solutions bring a low into the Ohio Valley then send it offshore as it encounters a blocking high to the north. Temperatures generally look to be in the 10`s and 20`s early next week leaning precipitation chances to be in the form of snow. While confidence has increased slightly, this event is still 5 days away and any small adjustments to the track and intensity could lead to significant changes in forecaster thinking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: BW is that for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW is that for this weekend? no just the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I was just going to post er on the side of caution lol Rgem for east of Ontario has been to wet last 3 events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: I was just going to post er on the side of caution lol Rgem for east of Ontario has been to wet last 3 events.. It's been about right here. I think the highest it got was 2.5" and it hit on it, but just a few miles SE of where it was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 54 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Nice! Went there 2 years ago for a work trip with the wife! Amazing- you will get sick on the way to the resort of choice as the hills are so steep. It is a true paradise in the West Indies. Enjoy! We went on our honeymoon 11 years ago and my wife got sick going to and from the resort lol. Last year we rented a car and that was much better. This year you cant rent cars becsua of Covid so we'll see this goes. I agree, this is our favorite island. St Kitts is a close second. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: no just the clipper Seems aggressive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Looks like NWS Albany took away point and click forecasts and just go by county? I thought Upton was a bad office but they take the cake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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