TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Please, oh please let that blob of snow continue moving along the Thruway corridor WITHOUT falling apart so Rochester and Syracuse can join in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah they did the same thing they do every event lol They put the High end as the expected.. Except for east of Ontario of course I’m completely befuddled by the 6” over Rochester. I’ll admit that KBUF has a good record (way better than me) but I just can’t understand it. I also have trouble understanding their position on N Erie. The map reflects a widespread event but everything,but maybe the Canadian, shows anemic local stuff- except on the ridge. And even the Canadian product wouldn’t give the city of Roc 6”. 6” would be roughly 50% of our seasonal total to put it in perspective. Are they trolling us? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It looks like the snow bubble is trying to put up a fight against that snow band. I'm rooting for you, Rochester friends! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Good ole transition zone.. Turning attention to eastern Lake Ontario region, after a period of more widespread light snow later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, expect lake enhanced snows to redevelop east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a cap rising to at least 10k ft and strong west-southwest convergent flow pointed at central and northern Tug Hill region, amounts over a foot look likely in those areas from late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Winds becoming more west- northwest later Tuesday night will eventually make this band more transient. Away from the Tug Hill, expect snow totals in the 3-6 inch range. West winds gusting over 30 mph and temps in the 20s will result in better chance of blowing snow and reduced visibility in open areas east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lower temps will also allow even the lower elevations to see accumulating snow unlike what occurred during the last heavy lake enhanced snow event this past weekend. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Potent upstream shortwave trough swings through the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday morning. With its passage, veering wind flow to the northwest will shove lake snows off both lakes to the south. Deep synoptic moisture to start the period will then gradually deplete as the shortwave trough advances east with lake snows weakening by Wednesday afternoon. With the moving bands and shorter fetch of the lakes, accumulations will likely be limited to an inch or two, possibly a bit more near the southeast end of Lake Ontario where 3 to 4 inches will be possible. By late Wednesday afternoon, falling equilibrium levels and the incoming surface ridge will further suppress snowfall accumulations. Winds will also be in the process of backing to the west by Wednesday evening and then to the southwest Wednesday night. Although weak, there may be just enough support left to produce some minor accumulations as a lake snow band lifts north into and across the Buffalo Metro area. Wednesday night, any remaining lake snows will end as H850T warm and inversion heights fall. Later on, a warm front will then track northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, which might produce some minor accumulations as we head into Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Please, oh please let that blob of snow continue moving along the Thruway corridor WITHOUT falling apart so Rochester and Syracuse can join in. Hush it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca! Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward. Really wish they would divide the county into thirds. Most of “northern” Erie County will be lucky to see advisory criteria snows. And I’m not understanding the SWS that includes NF and Buffalo. I just drove down NFB from Robinson to Main Street, right through the SWS area, and outside of a small burst of moderate snow well north of the 290, I barely saw a flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Remember when NYC got hit with 3 Nor’easters in the middle of March, 2018? The models may not look promising atm but hang tight. Still have another 2 solid months of “potential”.;) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Interesting forecast by KBUF for Erie County tonight/tomorrow. Would almost think they are going with good old fashion guessing. Only 2 models showing the band get that far north are RGEM which barely gets the 6” line to the city, and the ARW which is always too aggressive. Even the forecast by KBUF is a bit contradicting. The AFD says 3” or less in the metro but their map has the 8-12” line all the way up to downtown. Glancing through the local maps and not really seeing anyone showing anything even close to the KBUF map. They are the pros so let’s see! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Interesting forecast by KBUF for Erie County tonight/tomorrow. Would almost think they are going with good old fashion guessing. Only 2 models showing the band get that far north are RGEM which barely gets the 6” line to the city, and the ARW which is always too aggressive. Even the forecast by KBUF is a bit contradicting. The AFD says 3” or less in the metro but their map has the 8-12” line all the way up to downtown. Glancing through the local maps and not really seeing anyone showing anything even close to the KBUF map. They are the pros so let’s see! Yeah the last 24 hours models don't get above southtowns with the band. I think the band is over lake erie right now, and it looks to be going pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah the last 24 hours models don't get above southtowns with the band. I think the band is over lake erie right now, and it looks to be going pretty far north. I’m beyond intrigued to see just how this thing sets up in the next couple hours. Nothing but a hot mess blob right now. The slight band that looked to be forming is just going to push onshore way north into Canada. This things got a lot of work to do next couple hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I’m beyond intrigued to see just how this thing sets up in the next couple hours. Nothing but a hot mess blob right now. The slight band that looked to be forming is just going to push onshore way north into Canada. This things got a lot of work to do next couple hours... And that’s my big issue with local meteorology...all day models show the band “hugging” the Lake Erie shoreline, this must be a default to the mean. It almost never happens that way yet that’s how they forecast almost every time. I believe these models have a “southern bias “ to them based on algorithms within the model outputs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Radar still looks really wonky...anyone else think this may not manifest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Radar still looks really wonky...anyone else think this may not manifest? Starting to get a little action filling in back over the lake now. 0z starting to come in all south very sharp cutoff on the northern side. Can’t really get a read off the radar what to expect. Winds mid lake are backing all the way to SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Starting to get a little action filling in back over the lake now. 0z starting to come in all south very sharp cutoff on the northern side. Can’t really get a read off the radar what to expect. Winds mid lake are backing all the way to SW... Interestingly enough Todd on WIVB just mentioned the last event was modeled too far south and the this one is another close call...at least they’re noticing this trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 If you look close enough there appears to be dual bands setting up...that northern one looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 GFS has the 26th low going over lake ontario before transfer. Rain for western NY verbatim. only about 1000 miles difference between the gfs and euro. Neither will verify as is...as we know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just got a lightning alert on my Tempest. Distance of 21 to 24 miles. To the south, that distance is an arc from Angola to Boston to Holland. Definitely one of the coolest things about the Tempest, and both the lightning detector and the anemometer are working great since I ran a 12 foot mast up the back of my house (putting the station at around 28 feet above the ground level). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I live in North Carolina and LOVE snow. Unfortunately I'm not in the Mountains of NC so I'm lucky to see 3-5" TOTAL per winter! Anyway, hoping you guys can direct me to some awesome live streaming cams up your way so I can see what lake effect snow looks like!! I've only found a few on YouTube and they are railcams. One is in North East PA, the other in Fairport N.Y.. Thx in advance y'all!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, davenc said: I live in North Carolina and LOVE snow. Unfortunately I'm not in the Mountains of NC so I'm lucky to see 3-5" TOTAL per winter! Anyway, hoping you guys can direct me to some awesome live streaming cams up your way so I can see what lake effect snow looks like!! I've only found a few on YouTube and they are railcams. One is in North East PA, the other in Fairport N.Y.. Thx in advance y'all!! https://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one. Band is already back way south. Only an inch here. Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder. Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there? Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for. BW how you make out further south? Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one. Band is already back way south. Only an inch here. Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder. Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there? Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for. BW how you make out further south? Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? I’m at work in Hamburg Village. Looks like about 4” of new snow. Not nearly as much as I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one. Band is already back way south. Only an inch here. Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder. Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there? Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for. BW how you make out further south? Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? Band will fizzle during the day with some drier air moving in but will refire this evening. I’m confident it will make it back to the distant southtowns of Hamburg/OP but I’m not sure it will make it any further north than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 New map.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Receiving some steady snow this morning as the band is getting ready to set up north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Grass is allllllllmost completely covered here. The coatings the past three days have been adding up. Big number, big numbers. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Swing and a BIG miss for BUF on this one. Band is already back way south. Only an inch here. Not looking like it was that much better right on the northern southern Erie boarder. Just saw a live shot from Quaker crossing plaza... maybe 3-4” there? Not even close to the warning snowfall they were calling for. BW how you make out further south? Looked like you were in the band for quite a few hours? Yeah right around 4" here. Eden got nearly 10" the band was here for awhile but heaviest portions of band were just south. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Getting some good snow depth in Boston Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah right around 4" here. Eden got nearly 10" the band was here for awhile but heaviest portions of band were just south. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF I was pleasantly shocked thus am received about 2.5” grass all covered. NWS mentions a few inches for just about everyone tomorrow, GFS is still bipolar on next weeks storm and Euro is a tick away from a pretty good shot...yup should be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: New map.. Did the drunk guy go home? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Did the drunk guy go home? No they simply coaxed him back in lockup with the day after tomorrow on 24 hour loop... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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