BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: That doesn't sound like much better of a pattern. Still too early. Pretty close to being a good synoptic storm for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 New map through Tuesday morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New map through Tuesday morning.. Lake temps might be enough to bump that a few miles north. Looks good for a foot or so here. The most intense band should be on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Next timeframe of interest east/SE of Ontario, Tues night/Wed..Brief multi lake connection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark The. Cutter of the Week Club! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, swva said: Ended up with around 11” in south Redfield. Trying to keep up with Carol LOL I want to see your picture lying in the snow. On second thought maybe not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The greatest snow accumulations in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will occur north of a line from Mayville to Cattaraugus to Machias. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. Nice! I’m headed to ECF in Sardinia for a sunrise hike tomorrow, might actually need the snowshoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Nice! I’m headed to ECF in Sardinia for a sunrise hike tomorrow, might actually need the snowshoes. My guess is this will bump north after midnight on Tuesday am...that when the north towns get in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake temps might be enough to bump that a few miles north. Looks good for a foot or so here. The most intense band should be on Tuesday. KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 It's an absolute different world down here in the city of Syracuse I will tell you that much. When I left the house, it was 33 and lightly snowing and the closer I got to the city, the skis opened up and the sun's practically showing. It's 38 down here with just wet roads while roads near me are snow covered. That's a distance of approx 20 miles so.... Is it January cause I forgot???Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Yep. A bit of drizzle here. . I don’t see that changing this week. Thankfully, headed to the Tug region on Friday, so I can tolerate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why? Because no models show that right now, not saying it can’t happen but RGEM was only model getting it into the Northtowns and that had since backed off. I’m not impressed at all. 4-8” in southtowns. 1-2” in the city and Northtowns, maybe 8-12” in the best spots in the Boston Hills/Chaut Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Because no models show that right now, not saying it can’t happen but RGEM was only model getting it into the Northtowns and that had since backed off. I’m not impressed at all. 4-8” in southtowns. 1-2” in the city and Northtowns, maybe 8-12” in the best spots in the Boston Hills/Chaut Ridge. I guess I’m just surprised with a SW travel just north of the region the winds won’t go sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 18z still cuts that next major storm...one has to think, if we have all these things in our favor now then what will it take to get a pattern that lasts for more than 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Blyr flow in the lake effect mixed layer starts out this evening from west-southwest and shifts more wnw late tonight into Monday morning as sfc trough to the northwest at least temporarily sinks through. Bigger change was more models, besides Canadian regional, now indicate that after this brief shift to the south of more focused low-level convergence and heavier lake effect snow, sfc low crossing Great Lakes late Monday into Monday night results in winds becoming more west-southwest again later Monday into Monday night. Didn`t go as far north as Canadian would suggest more into at least southern portions of Metro Buffalo, but do expect heavier snow to return to especially southern Erie county later Monday. Throughout this event through Monday night lake equilibrium levels only rise to 7-8kft. However, as the airmass is becoming colder, more of the lake convective layer will reside within DGZ, so looking at higher SLRs/fluffier snow. Since the fluff factor seems to be increasing and there is certainly potential that stronger band or two of snow could become stationary at times tonight through later Monday and Monday night, would expect snow totals over a foot over much of the warned area. Possible that edges of the warning area could need advisories, but not as set on that, so just handled the warnings for now and will let later shifts look into additional headlines. Away from the lake effect off Lake Erie, between the trough dropping through later tonight and widespread lighter snow and flurries spreading across the region from the shortwave trough, have some pops for all areas tonight even farther inland. Only area that sees relative minimum of snow will be eastern Lake Ontario region from early evening onward. Any light snow and temperatures dropping to at or below freezing for all areas late tonight and not moving much upward on Monday could result in slippery conditions at times later tonight into Monday for untreated roads. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure finishes crossing the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind the low, even colder air will pour across the Great Lakes with H85 temps dropping to -13c to -15c across the entire region. Several disturbances in upper levels moving across in this cold and relatively moist regime will result in continuation of the active period of lake effect snow. Even though the lake effect snow warning for southwest NYS only goes through daybreak on Tuesday, could see need for further advisory or potential warning headlines down the road. Also looks like these fairly widespread snow showers will begin to impact areas east of Lake Ontario again so may need some headlines there as well. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will only top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Behind the passing system, 850H temps of around -15C to -18C will continue to allow for the potential for a lake response east of both lakes into the first half of Wednesday afternoon. Synoptic moisture will start to decrease by the early afternoon as the trough over the region tracks east, so any lake response looks weaker with light snow. With any lake response that may linger into later Wednesday, the main driving force would be an upstream connection to Georgian Bay/Lake Huron. Snowfall should generally be light, with greatest snow amounts near the south shore of Lake Ontario. An area of low pressure will track from near James Bay southeast to the NY/VT/QC border from Thursday morning through Friday morning. As this system tracks southeast, an associated warm front will cross the WNY and Northern Finger Lakes area, causing warming temperatures aloft where 850H temps warm to around -7C for Thursday afternoon. Some snow showers will accompany the passing warm front, with additional snow showers more likely with the weak passing cold front later on Thursday night. Behind the passing cold front Thursday night, lake enhanced and then lake effect snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and off through Saturday as 850H temperatures drop from around -9C Friday morning to around -15C by Saturday morning. Late Friday into Friday night, a shortwave trough will cross the area, bringing additional chances for snow showers across most of the region with its passage, in addition to any areas of lake effect snow. During this period temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal, except on Thursday and Friday where temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Gee, I sure would love to get some northerly component to these winds/lake effect at some point this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looking at latest model runs, radar, and current conditions (rain/graupel/snow mix) lol... and weak intensity, I am wondering if we're even going to get an inch of snow in the Rochester to Syracuse zone this week. (At least tonight into Tuesday.) Never ending crap fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 It's made its way here ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS... SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 856 PM EST, an area of heavy lake effect snow was centered along a line extending from near Lake Erie Beach to Holland. This band of lake effect snow will remain nearly stationary for the next few hours. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inch per hour will be possible at times within this band of lake effect snow. The northern edge of this band of snow will be located along a line from Athol Springs to Wales Center, and the southern edge of the lake band will be along a line from near Dunkirk to Springville. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 NAM keeps the heaviest stuff just south of Buffalo 3 KM brings it close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM keeps the heaviest stuff just south of Buffalo 3 KM brings it close Well at least someone in our area is getting in on the fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Jeez 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Well at least someone in our area is getting in on the fun! RGEM brings it pretty far north as well 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 GFS gets close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Pretty weak sauce band here but I think it backed farther north than guidance had it..At least temp is below freezing lol 31° light snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty weak sauce band here but I think it backed farther north than guidance had it..At least temp is below freezing lol 31° light snow.. Snow in the band here is very wet, temps not cold enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Rochester to Syracuse... Snow to the north for the past 48 hours...now to the south. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Precip picking up considerably here, big fat wet flakes although it's hard to tell by picture.. Another dink and dunk night lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM brings it pretty far north as well I think its funny they discounted that model. I wonder what makes them pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think its funny they discounted that model. I wonder what makes them pass... Not sure but every model gives about a foot here by weds morning at 1:10 ratios. Canadian and RGEM are farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks like the GFS is all against the cold air hanging around much after next week. More cutters and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now