rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: A light dusting here in the SE Rochester burbs that has since melted. LES does ____-all for me. Enjoy it, those who are cashing in! PerintonMan is not a great spot. Penfield is better. But anywhere near Rochester is gonna be lacking when it comes to LES. As you know. We survive off synoptic and enhancement. BTW. This has probably been the worst winter of my life. Almost 50 of them for comparison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Band should start here around 5 Pm or so. Pretty warm out still, don't expect anything to stick until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Lake Erie temps still have some 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 At least the next potential event has a little more cold with it..Band doesn't look stationary but take what you can get.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 That event on the 26th that looked promising is now on the 12Z GFS (drum roll please) a cutter! With a Miller B redevelopment. And so it continues! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 And of course the Canadians are back at it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Will see if kbuf is right lol Tonight Snow. Low around 29. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely after 10am. High near 31. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers likely before 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 26. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Will see if kbuf is right lol Tonight Snow. Low around 29. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow before 10am, then snow showers likely after 10am. High near 31. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers likely before 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 26. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. How far south of the city are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: That event on the 26th that looked promising is now on the 12Z GFS (drum roll please) a cutter! With a Miller B redevelopment. And so it continues! The Canadian rolls it through well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: How far south of the city are you? 12 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: After living in Lake effect zones for over a decade, I have come to realize that LES is over-rated. Much of the time, it's piddly little pennies (not nickel and dimes). HOWEVER, when you can get a COLD winter, LES rocks. Clipper patterns with cold are what make LES amazing. BUT, cold air has been severely lacking...so unless you live at a higher elevation, LES is almost more frustrating than enjoyable. Several consecutive years of this now. I forget where you moved from? California, but before that Boston, Philly area, and Connecticut. I knew ROC wasn't a prime LES area for this region, but I expected more than this -- at least a few 2-4" type events every couple of weeks on top of synoptic. Well, the synoptic has been a whiff (this comes and goes), but the LES has been a dusting every few days and that's it. And everyone cheering for W or WSW winds, well...that doesn't do anything here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: California, but before that Boston, Philly area, and Connecticut. I knew ROC wasn't a prime LES area for this region, but I expected more than this -- at least a few 2-4" type events every couple of weeks on top of synoptic. Well, the synoptic has been a whiff (this comes and goes), but the LES has been a dusting every few days and that's it. And everyone cheering for W or WSW winds, well...that doesn't do anything here. This is not a normal year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Here is Rochesters snowfall each year. They did pretty good the last few decades. Very few below average years. 13/20 have been above average snowfall years in Rochester. https://www.weather.gov/buf/RochesterSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Europe has been experiencing a pretty good winter, by their standards. Alps have to be in prime condition with all the snow they've been getting and in the GFS forecast. Sadly, here we sit wanking in lockdowns. Maybe next winter I can get back there. Skied and hiked in Garmisch many years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 PerintonMan guy. I hear your frustration with everyone cheering W-SW wind flow. It can get annoying but that is the REAL LES. With a northwest-northeast wind, Rochester can get dinks and dabs. We really don’t get LES storms. Maybe once in blue moon we’ll pickup a foot. But that can happen in Buffalo in 3 hours. It’d take us 36. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 From a adk 46er trail page I follow on facebook. Looks fantastic 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here is Rochesters snowfall each year. They did pretty good the last few decades. Very few below average years. 13/20 have been above average snowfall years in Rochester. https://www.weather.gov/buf/RochesterSnow Oof. Boy did the 40’s suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: California, but before that Boston, Philly area, and Connecticut. I knew ROC wasn't a prime LES area for this region, but I expected more than this -- at least a few 2-4" type events every couple of weeks on top of synoptic. Well, the synoptic has been a whiff (this comes and goes), but the LES has been a dusting every few days and that's it. And everyone cheering for W or WSW winds, well...that doesn't do anything here. Yeah, a good chunk of Upstate doesn't got much at all with these SW winds. What you described is more typical of a Great Lakes Winter...well, at least it used to be. Hopefully this awful stretch we've been in is temporary and we can get a good row of winters again...but there are some scientific things going on that make me wonder if we will actually go back to what it used to be like...or close to it. 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: PerintonMan guy. I hear your frustration with everyone cheering W-SW wind flow. It can get annoying but that is the REAL LES. With a northwest-northeast wind, Rochester can get dinks and dabs. We really don’t get LES storms. Maybe once in blue moon we’ll pickup a foot. But that can happen in Buffalo in 3 hours. It’d take us 36. You guys can do great on Lake Enhanced events. As I've said before, I LOVE lake enhanced events. Reason being...is that snowfall is usually continuous and steady. You've got that synoptic and lake moisture just working together. It's also more enjoyable to me because it's not the showery lake effect snow that goes off and on and moves back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: PerintonMan guy. I hear your frustration with everyone cheering W-SW wind flow. It can get annoying but that is the REAL LES. With a northwest-northeast wind, Rochester can get dinks and dabs. We really don’t get LES storms. Maybe once in blue moon we’ll pickup a foot. But that can happen in Buffalo in 3 hours. It’d take us 36. Don't get me wrong, I don't begrudge the folks in Buffalo or east of Ontario obsessing over 5 degrees of wind direction. I know this is their "Super Bowl". I enjoy hearing about 24" in 12 hour dumps -- or, hell, Binghamton's 40" a few weeks ago when up here we only got a few (not LES, I know, but just to show I'm not a total curmudgeon ) But it just highlights how absolutely little is going on otherwise. Fortunately, looking at the history, it seems like it's hard to get completely skunked around here in January-February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Ended up with around 11” in south Redfield. Trying to keep up with Carol LOL 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: That event on the 26th that looked promising is now on the 12Z GFS (drum roll please) a cutter! With a Miller B redevelopment. And so it continues! I just went and looked and it gifts us with..not one...but TWO cutters next week! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I just went and looked and it gifts us with..not one...but TWO cutters next week! lol That’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I just went and looked and it gifts us with..not one...but TWO cutters next week! lol I wouldn't use Operational runs beyond day 4-5. Stick with ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I will say this to credit this area in extreme NW Onondaga county...we seem to do much better at retaining a snow cover than the interior Syracuse suburbs and the city itself. When I check out webcams, we will often have snow remaining during mildish days like this, while there they don't. Today is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I wouldn't use Operational runs beyond day 4-5. Stick with ensembles. Thanks. I wasn't taking it literally. So much can change in a week...hoping this is a positive change to a better few weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks. I wasn't taking it literally. So much can change in a week...hoping this is a positive change to a better few weeks! GEFS would bring snow here as the ridge wins out. OP GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Euro brings quite a bit of snow just south of here. still gives me a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The greatest snow accumulations in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will occur north of a line from Mayville to Cattaraugus to Machias. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Going to be a battle between that high and that low pressure next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Going to be a battle between that high and that low pressure next weekend. That doesn't sound like much better of a pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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