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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

286619E8-C25D-47BB-B25A-F20DFF9971B0.thumb.png.fab1473611e9d7939bfdf73087eea6ae.png

It might be your time, Matt. The band is organizing over you. Now the question is how long will it reside there?  I was in that area of lighter returns for a while, now it’s starting to pick up again here.

I am just on the edge of the light greens NE of Baldwinsville. Would love it to settle just a little bit southwest more. Looks like Syrmax is getting hit nicely.

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50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I see they lowered the totals at KBUF...they can’t seem to make up their minds...

Still looks good to me. Obviously looks better for my area then northtowns.

Several disturbances will traverse through a thermal trough that
will extend from the Upper Great Lakes across Lake Ontario during
the Monday night through Tuesday night time period. Unlike the days
leading into this period...a colder airmass with H85 temps of -10 to
-12c will certainly support enough instability over the lakes for
pure lake effect. This will focus accumulating lake snows east of
both lakes. Headlines will likely be needed for this 36 hour period.

The trough will push south of Lake Ontario on Wednesday...and with a
-15c H85 airmass in place...fairly widespread lake snow showers can
be anticipated for the western counties.

Ridging Wednesday night with non-diurnal temp trend.

image.thumb.png.5fdd9eb657bd95790c348e26b4ee25df.png

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am just on the edge of the light greens NE of Baldwinsville. Would love it to settle just a little bit southwest more. Looks like Syrmax is getting hit nicely.

Not up to an inch on ground yet. Our weather matches that in the soccer match i'm watching that's being played in Munich Germany, similar temps and light snow.

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8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

When I lived in S. Redfield, I remember many times going into Pulaski and there was no snow because the winds jumped the band over the town, or the lake made it milder and it rained. I lived very close to Lake Michigan and it had the same effect.

I wonder where the official measurements are taken. There is probably a big difference between downtown and the east side towards Altmar and Orwell.

 

Yeah that's the new "pattern" now but wasn't always like that lol The warmth from the lake hurts mostly during early and late season events..The wind does blow stronger out of the west-wsw which leads to more upslope and less of a band but places like Altmar/orwell don't have much elevation either..(more than pulaski though)..

Pulaski had 200+ in 00/01, 02/03, 03/04, 06/07, 07/08, 08/09 and 10/11..

Maybe this is the"norm" and that was just a great decade lol

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah that's the new "pattern" now but wasn't always like that lol The warmth from the lake hurts mostly during early and late season events..The wind does blow stronger out of the west-wsw which leads to more upslope and less of a band but places like Altmar/orwell don't have much elevation either..(more than pulaski though)..

Pulaski had 200+ in 00/01, 02/03, 03/04, 06/07, 07/08, 08/09 and 10/11..

Maybe this is the"norm" and that was just a great decade lol

Idk wolf as KBUFS 2nd best snow decade was the 00s and they get hit with SW wind. I think it just has to do with how much cold air we get. Everyone did well in the 00s in Upstate.

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

34 degrees right now so you know what the consistency of the snow is like. One of these times where we lose part of of the accumulation to melting, especially  midday. 

 

Just now, Syrmax said:

Not up to an inch on ground yet. Our weather matches that in the soccer match i'm watching that's being played in Munich Germany, similar temps and light snow.

With our average temps of the month being around 40 for highs and the low barely reaching down to freezing, I think we are on course for way above average temp January.

Several days this upcoming week we are still going to be in the mid 30s. I fear we heading into this as normal for winters from now on.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Idk wolf as KBUFS 2nd best snow decade was the 00s and they get hit with SW wind. I think it just has to do with how much cold air we get. Everyone did well in the 00s in Upstate.

And obviously wind direction...SW winds have ruled off of Lake Ontario lately. The only area that benefits from that is Northern Tug and Watertown.

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

With our average temps of the month being around 40 for highs and the low barely reaching down to freezing, I think we are on course for way above average temp January.

Several days this upcoming week we are still going to be in the mid 30s. I fear we heading into this as normal for winters from now on.

Buffalo is at +7.5 for January so far...The highs haven't been that high, but the lows have been way above normal.

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tonights event is going to be a close call in how far the band gets north. Mon into Tuesday will easily get to Metro.

Right which is why I called them lazy. Last night they went into great depth. This morning east if the lakes. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to see the S/W diving in Monday night and Tuesday. 

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1 minute ago, PerintonMan said:

A light dusting here in the SE Rochester burbs that has since melted.

LES does ____-all for me.

Enjoy it, those who are cashing in!

After living in Lake effect zones for over a decade, I have come to realize that LES is over-rated. Much of the time, it's piddly little pennies (not nickel and dimes). HOWEVER, when you can get a COLD winter, LES rocks. Clipper patterns with cold are what make LES amazing. 

BUT, cold air has been severely lacking...so unless you live at a higher elevation, LES is almost more frustrating than enjoyable. Several consecutive years of this now. I forget where you moved from?

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