TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The 18Z NAM runs look awful. What happened to the wraparound? The Lake Effect? Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 18Z NAM runs look awful. What happened to the wraparound? The Lake Effect? Sigh. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 KBUF calling for several rounds of snow for Buffalo next few days totaling a foot+ https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 PARA with a more likely scenario for Rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 Very strong band showing up on RGEM at 36 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 RGEM drops 2-2.5" of QPF in form of snow through 84 hours. 3.5" over the tug. Over 2 feet of snow at 1:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Summing up the Forecast for the week from BUF in 3 words: Southwest Wind Snows Summary for everybody else in their area in 5 words: Half inch to one inch As far as BGM...somebody forgot to edit their work.... LOL: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 3 PM Update... Another short wave and surface low pressure move into the upper Great Lakes Monday then move through NY Tuesday. Another round of light snow with this. On Monday a weak warm will be across upstate NY focusing the snow. Monday night a break with snow mostly in Finger Lakes to Oneida County. Tuesday most of the snow will again be in CNY. Drier weather in NEPA despite the cold frontal passage. Front won`t have much moisture or forcing. waits. Cold air slowly moves in Tuesday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 New Map. Through Monday 7 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: New Map. Through Monday 7 PM Been out cutting wood all day. Seems things have changed a bit.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM drops 2-2.5" of QPF in form of snow through 84 hours. 3.5" over the tug. Over 2 feet of snow at 1:10 Definitely taking with a grain of salt lol It has like 3-4X the amount of any other model here..It did nail the Christmas system but it was a decent bit to high with last event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Getting graupel the size of small hail right now lol Didn't know they come this big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Getting graupel the size of small hail right now lol Didn't know they come this big.. Light snow here too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Light snow here too. Beautiful shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Definitely taking with a grain of salt lol It has like 3-4X the amount of any other model here..It did nail the Christmas system but it was a decent bit to high with last event... Yeah but time temps are not as marginal. The RGEM did well with placement and close to QPF. Even at half this we're talking 10-15". Seems KBUF is going with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Temperatures seem to be wreaking havoc on dendrites here in South Redfield. Kind of a snow/graupel mix. Hope we see it change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, swva said: Temperatures seem to be wreaking havoc on dendrites here in South Redfield. Kind of a snow/graupel mix. Hope we see it change. Graupel has been VERY common in Upstate NY this winter. No deep cold around. Hopefully that changes this upcoming week. What's the snow depth up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Graupel has been VERY common in Upstate NY this winter. No deep cold around. Hopefully that changes this upcoming week. What's the snow depth up there? Maybe 6-8”. Hoping to add double digits to that tonight but going to need a change in dendrites. Had 2” this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Looks like ADK got hit pretty hard https://www.facebook.com/LifeintheADKS/videos/243621797281801 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I take 8-12...I was just going to post that Tuesday night Wednesday looks prime for 4-8 for metro-north towns. We all score this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, swva said: Maybe 6-8”. Hoping to add double digits to that tonight but going to need a change in dendrites. Had 2” this morning. Dendrites trying to improve now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 We came incredibly close to a very snowy game. Look at these backing winds trying to setup a decent band, just a few wind degrees shy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I take 8-12...I was just going to post that Tuesday night Wednesday looks prime for 4-8 for metro-north towns. We all score this week Not even an advisory or a watch though. I think that map is way overdone for WNY IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not even an advisory or a watch though. I think that map is way overdone for WNY IMO. It’s a silly map for sure. I’m in the 4-6 range and likely will not see an inch. So you can trim 4-6 off everything to start lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll take the under for ROC. I don't see us getting 2 inches, nevermind 3-6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not even an advisory or a watch though. I think that map is way overdone for WNY IMO. Yeah it’s a bit early...if it went through Wednesday I could buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Draw a sideways diamond from Rochester to Syracuse to Geneva to Batavia and back to Rochester. The black hole of wintry weather this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Draw a sideways diamond from Rochester to Syracuse to Geneva to Batavia and back to Rochester. The black hole of wintry weather this year. You need to extend that triangle north through most of Oswego county lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Fulton and pulaski have 17.6"..Syracuse has 17.0".. Compared to avg Oswego county may be the worst lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: You need to extend that triangle north through most of Oswego county lol Looks like you guys are going to get some good stuff the next couple days? Systems south and east...this one is north and east (looks to be working down towards you guys?)...then the next shortwave looks to go south and west and ride the southern tier. I'm so confused by what's going on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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