wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Several bouts of enhancement and LES on the European over the next 6-7 days.. Euro is also the only model showing most of the enhancement closer to the lake as a mix, not buying it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Nws added a 18"-24" zone but decreased around it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nws added a 18"-24" zone but decreased around it lol Really lowered totals over WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Stolen from a text, not sure of source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: Stolen from a text, not sure of source. Eastern Lake Ontario Weather Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks good except the lowville area imo.. That's"lower" elevation..They won't be able to upslope which is why the NWS has 6" there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Really lowered totals over WNY They leave the door open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks good except the lowville area imo.. That's"lower" elevation..They won't be able to upslope which is why the NWS has 6" there.. Whoa! Whatever happened to the W/NW winds!?!? Complete horses**t 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Eastern Lake Ontario Weather Facebook page. Nancy in Redfield probably created that on her dial-up computer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 That Christmas event had expected at 7" and high end 13"..I picked up 13" so you never know lol I'm more in favor of the"range" than the exact number.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Whoa! Whatever happened to the W/NW winds!?!? Complete horses**t Well it is a "westerly" flow, prob 250-270 vector..NW winds happen towards the end of the event as the system pulls NE but we start to lose the synoptic moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That Christmas event had expected at 7" and high end 13"..I picked up 13" so you never know lol I'm more in favor of the"range" than the exact number.. Any idea which model NWS is using for their forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Any idea which model NWS is using for their forecasts? ECMWF model of choice through the period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Can't wait, hoping this Tug/O.F. comes to fruition. If so wife and I are heading up early Monday morning for some much needed snowmobiling time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 This is a handy tool I like to use for wind flow.. I always do westerly in quotations because it can be anywhere from 260-280 flow.. Basically Central and northern Oswego county.. Now a traditional WNW flow is 290-300 degrees which traditionally favors southern Oswego county.. matts area may need more of a 300-310 flow which is considered NW BUT West which may be why its been hard to get a sustained band.. Syracuse proper needs more of a 310-320 vector aka NW flow.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This is a handy tool I like to use for wind flow.. I always do westerly in quotations because it can be anywhere from 260-280 flow.. Basically Central and northern Oswego county.. Now a traditional WNW flow is 290-300 degrees which traditionally favors southern Oswego county.. matts area may need more of a 300-310 flow which is considered NW BUT West which may be why its been hard to get a sustained band.. Syracuse area need more of a 310ish and NW flow.. This is fantastic! Pic saved and thanks for sharing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: ECMWF model of choice through the period NWS Bing typically uses the Canadian...curious why the change. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 ^^^ That's the model of choice for buffalo not sure what binghamton is going with.. Kbuf was riding the Canadian at first but jumped off board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Kbgm from this morning.. Another round of snow will move off Lake Ontario late Saturday as westerly winds align over the water. Several inches of snow will fall over Northern Oneida County Saturday night, with additional snow expected Sunday. Storm total snow amounts will exceed a foot in spots, especially over northwestern sections of Oneida County. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 355 AM Update... Attention turns to combination of synoptic wrap-around and lake-enhanced snow for the second half of the weekend. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern Oneida County. For Saturday night, large low stacks over New England, placing our region in zone of synoptic wrap around including Atlantic moisture in the mid-upper levels. At the same time, lake moisture will be contributed to the lower levels via westerly yet cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures will actually be pretty marginal for lake response - about 7-9C below freezing - yet with synoptic moisture seeding from above, there could still lead to decent lake effect snow. There is considerable uncertainty, but the potential will be there for development of Huron-to-Ontario multilake connection, especially by Sunday. For this reason, the Watch for northern Oneida County was extended through the day. Indeed if the Canadian model pans out, we may even see accumulating lake effect continue right through Sunday night along and north of the New York Thruway. Further south, at least scattered lake effect snow showers will occur courtesy of Lake Erie moisture via westerly flow and synoptic wrap around moisture aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Canadian pretty much has snow everyday for the next week or so.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 So we may not have much separation if any between events..3K nam has most of sat night being an upslope event before a single band forms for Sunday and starts to back north ahead of the next disturbance Sunday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18z RGEM is definitely better IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Lol...from every post I've seen on here, each run looks worse and worse for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I keep coming in here hoping there will be something to follow, but there just isnt (for ROC specifically). Just more rain and green grass. You can't squeeze blood from a stone. I'm officially pulling for no snow from here on out. Will be far more interesting to smash a record in that direction than to dink and dunk my way to 45 lousy inches. Good grief. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just a reminder.. Winter is already cancelled like I said few times so why keep tracking for snow storm when you know it will never come. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, brentrich said: Just a reminder.. Winter is already cancelled like I said few times so why keep tracking for snow storm when you know it will never come. Then why are you here? You bring Zero value to this board.. Go find another forum to troll.. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks like quite a few lake enhanced events coming up for Erie County the next week. Wouldn't be surprised if some get well over a foot by next weekend, especially higher elevations. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Then why are you here? You bring Zero value to this board.. Go find another forum to troll.. people at wxdisco.com are doing much better job than you guys are :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodoomposting Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I made an account to comment specifically on the doomposting and doomcasting. Shut the heck up! If you don't want to watch, comment and track weather, just leave. To come on here and constantly complain about the weather and how you may or may not get snow. Or how you believe the "winter is canceled" 2 months in advance. It just shows a pathological level of emotional immaturity. You're doing yourself and everyone here no favors and you're stinking up the place with bad vibes. There's enough bad vibes in society as it is. Either lurk, ask reasonable questions, forecast without emotion, share models and analysis or get out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Latest from the Wpc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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