wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Advisory issued for a couple inches to the north and 4"-6" south.. Yawn lol At least with LES I know I'll get that in about an hour.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 we are starting to lose the "front end" of the snow now as the secondary starts to develop. Here is where the "pause" begins for many of us...after some unexpected SN- this a.m. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'm particularly interested in 12z hi-res RGEM to see if it blows up that additional vort. Could be epic however unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I'm particularly interested in 12z hi-res RGEM to see if it blows up that additional vort. Could be epic however unlikely. It's already out...see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: It's already out...see above. Pivotal has the 10km version of RGEM. I think he referring to the 2.5km hi-res version. The 12z run is out to 15 hours so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Pivotal has the 10km version of RGEM. I think he referring to the 2.5km hi-res version. The 12z run is out to 15 hours so far. Yeah HRDPS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So short term AND long term modeling sucks allegedly...all we heard from the late fall was how we were in line for a cold December and early January before things flip and we torch late January and February...thus is a complete 180 of what’s exactly happening as now February, per the CPC through February 26th, is expected to be colder than normal. Incredible how much guesswork goes into this profession as it seems Mother Nature is beginning to widen the gap in forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer in the lower elevations, resulting in rain or a mix of rain and snow. The higher elevations should stay mostly snow for the day on Friday. As the cold front passing over the area, and cold air advection brings temps down, any remaining rain will change over to snow. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temps in the -10C to -15C range will help support the potential for a lake response off of both lakes. Potential lake enhanced and then lake effect would continue through most of Saturday. A wave of low pressure and trailing cold front will track across the area on Sunday, bringing a return to cold temperatures once again. Lake effect behind this passing system also looks possible with 850H temps dropping to -15C Sunday night, and cooling even more so from there. Temperatures on Friday will be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s, and a low 40s across the lower elevations. Temperatures for Friday will be heavily dependent on timing of the cold frontal passage.Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 20s to near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Kuchie totals.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So short term AND long term modeling sucks allegedly...all we heard from the late fall was how we were in line for a cold December and early January before things flip and we torch late January and February...thus is a complete 180 of what’s exactly happening as now February, per the CPC through February 26th, is expected to be colder than normal. Incredible how much guesswork goes into this profession as it seems Mother Nature is beginning to widen the gap in forecasting. I feel pretty confident that February will be by far the snowiest month of the winter for all of Upstate. I'd get my 1 GME stock on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I feel pretty confident that February will be by far the snowiest month of the winter for all of Upstate. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer in the lower elevations, resulting in rain or a mix of rain and snow. The higher elevations should stay mostly snow for the day on Friday. As the cold front passing over the area, and cold air advection brings temps down, any remaining rain will change over to snow. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temps in the -10C to -15C range will help support the potential for a lake response off of both lakes. Potential lake enhanced and then lake effect would continue through most of Saturday. A wave of low pressure and trailing cold front will track across the area on Sunday, bringing a return to cold temperatures once again. Lake effect behind this passing system also looks possible with 850H temps dropping to -15C Sunday night, and cooling even more so from there. Temperatures on Friday will be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s, and a low 40s across the lower elevations. Temperatures for Friday will be heavily dependent on timing of the cold frontal passage.Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 20s to near 30. Its looking real good Wolf. Lake Eries last Hurrah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So short term AND long term modeling sucks allegedly...all we heard from the late fall was how we were in line for a cold December and early January before things flip and we torch late January and February...thus is a complete 180 of what’s exactly happening as now February, per the CPC through February 26th, is expected to be colder than normal. Incredible how much guesswork goes into this profession as it seems Mother Nature is beginning to widen the gap in forecasting. Exactly! At least with the LR. They just suck. I will say, the La Niña idea has been pretty accurate. And BuffWX was right about this cold spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Icon came around this morning. Finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Kuchie totals.... Wow! GFS really bringing kuchie love to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 If that’s not cold enough for lake effect I’ll toss the white kuchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Temp has shot up to 33 here while sitting in this lull. Precip about to start back up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Wow! GFS really bringing kuchie love to Syracuse. Yeah, kinda has the look of UKIE's last couple runs... And I think Lake Ontario will definitely help out a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Temp has shot up to 33 here while sitting in this lull. Precip about to start back up... Toasty. HI-res update? Stuck on initialization on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Toasty. HI-res update? Stuck on initialization on tidbits. Out to 0z Wednesday. Almost there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Buf dropped totals again...inch by inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Toasty. HI-res update? Stuck on initialization on tidbits. That looks pretty good for Binghamton. It’s anybody’s game. You could get into the big stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 My call through 00z Thurs: BUF: 4" ROC: 10" SYR: 14" BGM: 10" ALB: 12" MyBackYard: 16" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 My call through 00z Thurs: BUF: 3" ROC: 9" SYR: 14" BGM: 18" ALB: 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Call time: Buf-3 Roc-8 Syr-18 Bing-11 Ithaca-14 NYC-26 my backyard-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS is beautiful. Feet of Lake effect snow this weekend into early next week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The sun is peaking through here now...lol. Looking at the surface map from 12z and what the NAM and RGEM had. They are both too weak with the LP by 1-2mb... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is beautiful. Feet of Lake effect snow this weekend into early next week. Just saw that too and had the same thought. Please pull whatever string you can to lock that right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is beautiful. Feet of Lake effect snow this weekend into early next week. Fake snow. We toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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