vortmax Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I find it quite amazing that the models are struggling so much, so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: I find it quite amazing that the models are struggling so much, so close to the event. They did the normal "3 days out look pretty good" and now 1 to 2 days away, they take it away. I think we stand a better chance over here than you guys do in the ROC area....but I hope we all can get in on it. It definitely seems like a situation that "wherever" the banding sets up Saturday morning is where the 3 to 6 inches will fall, while the area around it get an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well, let’s hope it meanders down our way and the models aren’t right. Get a band that swings back n forth between northern Onondaga and Wolfie I’m hoping the band makes it to extreme northern Onondaga County like the band on December 29 that gave me 13 inches (half of my seasonal total so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How long have you been around here? Have you seen good Lake effect events here in extreme NW Onondaga? Been here about 7 years and the first winter was brutal- that’s when the temo was below freezing the entire month of February. Has gone down hill since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: I’m hoping the band makes it to extreme northern Onondaga County like the band on December 29 that gave me 13 inches (half of my seasonal total so far). I lived in Cicero prior to BVille and much more snow in Cicero & Brewerton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Maybe the GFS will come out of left field and show something good for everyone. “Eye roll” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Maybe the GFS will come out of left field and show something good for everyone. “Eye roll” Oh, how I hope the GFSs can be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: I lived in Cicero prior to BVille and much more snow in Cicero & Brewerton area. My niece lives just west of Central Square off 49 and she probably gets 50% more snow than me. We always joke that the Brewerton bridge over the end of the lake is the line of demarcation. I like to call it the Arctic circle, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: My niece lives just west of Central Square off 49 and she probably gets 50% more snow than me. We always joke that the Brewerton bridge over the end of the lake is the line of demarcation. I like to call it the Arctic circle, lol. Lmao! It is so true! Central Square is in the snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: My niece lives just west of Central Square off 49 and she probably gets 50% more snow than me. We always joke that the Brewerton bridge over the end of the lake is the line of demarcation. I like to call it the Arctic circle, lol. That settles it...Hinmansville/Fulton/Volney area is my next move. Enjoy your snow while you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Hoping the para is correct here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Nice lake effect snow next week on the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice lake effect snow next week on the gfs Yeah it hammers my location. Temps marginal, but lots of synoptic support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Canadian definitely backed off of Saturday. Yep...maaaybe 2 inches in the lower elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Canadian is pretty good for Oswego county WRT enhancement, sharp cutoff to the south verbatim..It did cut down quite a bit though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Oh, yay. Another event where I watch the snow pound a county away..... This winter can suck it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 New BGM map. Once again 15-25 minutes is pretty much the difference from next to nothing to >=3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: New BGM map. Once again 15-25 minutes is pretty much the difference from next to nothing to >3-4”. That’s what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: That’s what she said And the split between synoptic and LES events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I guess we'll see what happens. No more model checking for me. Hopefully we all have some white ground by Sunday evening. Have a great day, all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah it hammers my location. Temps marginal, but lots of synoptic support. Is this new snow after this Sat/Sun deal? Or is this a total between this weekend and next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Kbuf increased totals slightly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Gfs was more impressive regarding enhancement, actually the model keeps LES going until Wednesday due to a couple disturbances moving through.. Canadian was also wolfie approved at 6z.. Well at least it's active.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks like the NAM is still having some issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the NAM is still having some issues.. For once, I might have to agree with ‘convective issues’. The real LP placement is visible though- eastern NY. Precip hangs on throughout the north country. Impressive little storm for the ADK’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging over the Adirondacks this morning will give way to a mature cyclone that will lumber across the Upper Mid West. The large disturbance will push an occlusion across our region late today and tonight. While dry weather will be in place through midday...light rain (mixed rain/snow Srn Tier) will develop ahead of the occlusion later this afternoon for the western counties. It will also become quite breezy...esp across the Southern Tier and in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge in particular. A robust LLJ will promote downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph between Lk Erie and the ridge...and also across the higher terrain. The occlusion will steadily push across the western counties tonight. Mixed rain and snow will change to mainly wet snow overnight within the colder air in the wake of the occlusion. Many areas will pick up a coating of snow...with an inch of two possible over the Srn Tier and as much as three inches on the Tug Hill. The front will continue to make its way across the Eastern Lake Ontario region Saturday morning...where widespread steady wet snow could accumulate another three to five inches. A winter storm watch is in effect for this area. The remainder of the region will pick up scattered snow showers that could leave a coating to as much as an inch across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo and Rochester. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...Plowable Snowfall Expected East of Both Lakes... A large...stacked cyclone directly over our forecast area Saturday evening will gradually open up and exit across New England late Saturday night and Sunday. Relatively cold air with a very moist environment will then interact with the lakes to provide lake enhanced snowfall across the region...especially in the snowbelts east of both lakes. As much as a foot of snow will be possible in the vcnty of the Tug Hill during this 24 hour period with lesser amounts forecast for the Chautauqua ridge. The remainder of the region will pick up an inch or so accumulation. Lake enhanced snows should persist through Sunday night for areas east of Lake Erie and also along the south shore of Lake Ontario... although a lowering cap will limit additional accumulations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next disturbance within the longwave trough pushes across the Lower Great lakes on Monday...producing scattered snow showers for the bulk of our region. Lake enhanced areas east of each lake could pick up a couple inches of accumulation. Relative lull Monday night into Tuesday with weak ridging ahead of next clipper. Still some lake snows possible though east and southeast of the lakes. Next clipper to impact the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with another round of snow showers. Accumulations should not be significant. Warm advection ahead of next front to support the chance for more light snow on Thursday. ECMWF model of choice through the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Still some discrepancy wrt Saturday morning.. Both GFS models continue to show a strong band of precip slowly moving through.. Gfs OP has most of it as rain which I'm not so sure about..Para is colder and mostly snow..This could make or break this event for parts of CNY that get left out of any enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Well if the 12z GFS is to be believed at least the ground will freeze up and I won’t have my backyard on my floors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Rain...in mid Jan with slp east of here. Glad I threw in the towel on this winter back in mid December. We'll always have that 3 hrs of lake effect from a couple weeks ago. They can't take that away from us!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Rain...in mid Jan with slp east of here. Glad I threw in the towel on this winter back in mid December. We'll always have that 3 hrs of lake effect from a couple weeks ago. They can't take that away from us!! I’m not sure why you’re complaining about his weekend’s weather (other than it seems to be the thing to do on here). We all knew that with the primary low to our west we were going to warm up enough to rain until colder air comes in behind the occluded front. The majority of the weekend shows enough signs for snow around here to at least make things interesting. It’s been said that a hitter will almost always end up hitting to the back of his baseball card. We still have 2 months left in this winter. Let’s see if we can revert to the means. If so things could get interesting around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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