96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What a wonderful surprise to get this WAA snow. No model had this! Hope it bodes well for the entire event! Snowing beautifully in Skaneateles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What is fascinating is that none of the model runs at 06z have anything that is close to verification on the northern edge of this system....up to 2/3's of an inch here.... Ratios will be our friend!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Look at the massive dry-slot thats gonna be punching into NYC. Not sure if any modeling picked up on this massive intrusion of dry-air but it'll for sure put a damper on some of the forecasted amounts down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: What is fascinating is that none of the model runs at 06z have anything that is close to verification on the northern edge of this system....up to 2/3's of an inch here.... Ratios will be our friend!! Do you think this has any bearing on the future? Fully Saturated atmosphere and a northern surprise already? Or perhaps the Low becomes its own animal to watch develop...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Come to Papa!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Everything I have looked at looks good to go. The mid level slp positions are all ideal for precip to continue with the closed 700mb lp providing copious amts of moisture on strong easterly winds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: Do you think this has any bearing on the future? Fully Saturated atmosphere and a northern surprise already? Or perhaps the Low becomes its own animal to watch develop...? The fact the models are struggling already With QPF up here, suggests to me that Most if not all the models are struggling with the moisture fields at the low and mid levels... So I guess I would lean towards this being an over performer With regards to most of the model QPF outputs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Lots of mix/IP/rain OBs in NJ/E PA....hmmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 06z Para upping a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6z High res 2.5k reg Canadian... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z High res 2.5k reg Canadian... So it’s snowing here in far WNY and is actually about to pick up in pace as some darker blues are moving in from the SE...the local Mets are downplaying it and the models don’t show it...yeah that’s par for the course... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Snowing way up here as wel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Snowing way up here as wel! And here as well! Only a couple miles from the lake. Not really impressed with the WWA BUF issued though, hoping we overperform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So it’s snowing here in far WNY and is actually about to pick up in pace as some darker blues are moving in from the SE...the local Mets are downplaying it and the models don’t show it...yeah that’s par for the course... Surprised to see it snowing this morning here. Pretty nice snowfall right now actually with thick cloud deck and maybe some fog mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Buf AFD : The airmass is not particularly cold, and will likely be too warm to allow for much lake enhancement as the dentritic crystal growth zone remains far above the shallow inversion during the event. ??? This would be disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 A few flurries in Rome, NY. Here's my Nest Cams if anyone wants the look throughout the storm Front Cam Back Cam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Surprised to see it snowing this morning here. Pretty nice snowfall right now actually with thick cloud deck and maybe some fog mixed in. It’s almost at the precipice of moderate in Williamsville and about .5” accumulated. The models are just not very good ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: It’s almost at the precipice of moderate in Williamsville and about .5” accumulated. The models are just not very good ATM Makes me question all of them for this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Makes me question all of them for this event. Agreed. Radar has plenty of moderate returns over basically the whole Niagara frontier, I can see 1-2” from this and that probably 1-2” more than I thought we’d get, now all bets are off as anything looks to be on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed. Radar has plenty of moderate returns over basically the whole Niagara frontier, I can see 1-2” from this and that probably 1-2” more than I thought we’d get, now all bets are off as anything looks to be on the table. Yup nowcasting time. Sad my 5 inch call is looking bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed. Radar has plenty of moderate returns over basically the whole Niagara frontier, I can see 1-2” from this and that probably 1-2” more than I thought we’d get, now all bets are off as anything looks to be on the table. Exactly, even the updated AFD says less than an inch at the south shore. We're at 1/4-1/2 already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, vortmax said: Exactly, even the updated AFD says less than an inch at the south shore. We're at 1/4-1/2 already. Flake size has increased a bit in the past 30 minutes. Snowfall rate about the same light to occasionally moderate. Have just measured 1” of snow and still moderate snow coming down...crazy how I’m able to measure virtual snowfall, I mean if it’s not on the models it can’t happen, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 You can clearly see the primary low off the NJ coast is now rapidly deepening (can see a swirl and fresh deep convection) We shall see if that contracts the precip field further west as things tighten up around the new low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Would be nice to compare radar to RGEM throughout this event since this was the most generous model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: Would be nice to compare radar to RGEM throughout this event since this was the most generous model. Good point. I’ve never been through a winter where all the models have been somewhat correct. It used to be the GFS and the Euro would come in and correct everything and all would be tight in the world, but beginning last year things have changed for the worse. Model scores are probably terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This would probably be a first for me lol It's obviously not just valley locations..Dps are the same everywhere..700 mb moisture looks good.. Little drier at 850mb ..I guess we'll see soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Long range RAP looks fantastic...HRRR backed off a bit. Snowing moderately here at the moment. We'll probably get a bonus inch or two this morning. Time for me to go and focus on work. Have fun tracking, friends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Snowing actually hard in Irondequoit. Opened my eyes and was like....what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The 850’s are a little warm for enhancement but I’ve never seen a set up like this that didn’t get assistance. It’s gonna be tough to watch the atmosphere dry up this afternoon. I guess I’ll enjoy it while I have it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Nam seems to be overestimating the dry air unless this stuff isn't reaching the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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