rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro sides with that southern solution. We better hope the lake has a LOT of love to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Something odd. Its drying up the entire northeast. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Read it and weep. Ugly for sure It’s odd I feel like the euro and GFS have swapped this afternoon. Latest GFS has that pinwheel of snow back to Buffalo where the Euro has it only to Syracuse... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Read it and weep. Ugly for sure Which model do we follow short term? We are inside 24hrs now and do we discount the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, SyracuseStorm said: Which model do we follow short term? We are inside 24hrs now and do we discount the Euro? You never discount the most accurate model, especially EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: You never discount the most accurate model, especially EPS. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Ughhhly. So, now we have Euro, Gefs, Icon, and Nam (off and on) vs. Canadians, Mesos, and GFS (barely) Yikes. Can't believe there's still so much up in the air. Feel like this would be locked in if it was a cutter...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 With snow I always go with the low totals and get surprised when the higher amounts actually land on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Ughhhly. So, now we have Euro, Gefs, Icon, and Nam (off and on) vs. Canadians, Mesos, and GFS (barely) Yikes. Can't believe there's still so much up in the air. Feel like this would be locked in if it was a cutter...lol Yep. A cutter locks in 3 days away. Ugh. If this pans out as a bust it’ll be a big miss by the EURO for NW areas. The GFS actually been advertising what the Euro just put out for days- well until today’s 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Well wish Canadian would break down so I can let go of this puppy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Watch the gfs show what euro did this morning. Lol kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yep. A cutter locks in 3 days away. Ugh. If this pans out as a bust it’ll be a big miss by the EURO for NW areas. The GFS actually been advertising what the Euro just put out for days- well until today’s 18z lol Cutters may lock quick it seems (LP west of us is obvious), but the heaviest axis of snow is probably still a challenge out there. But again, cutters are like mid-west Miller A's to some degree - moving from point A to point B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This one is complex and will be yet another now cast event. I'm just thankful we have a relatively warm lake to our north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: This one is complex and will be yet another now cast event. I'm just thankful we have a relatively warm lake to our north. Actually a really good attitude. It could surprise us. Gotta always expect that last minute twist! Even a couple inches will be welcome. Fun to watch the big city weenies get their fill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Actually a really good attitude. It could surprise us. Gotta always expect that last minute twist! Even a couple inches will be welcome. Fun to watch the big city weenies get their fill. Yes, and a long duration event makes it even more exciting. The lake wants to produce... now's her chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: This one is complex and will be yet another now cast event. I'm just thankful we have a relatively warm lake to our north. Im expecting 5 inches of snow for Geneva NY. Anything more and will be pleased. More than 10 inches and will be shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Im expecting 5 inches of snow for Geneva NY. Anything more and will be pleased. More than 10 inches and will be shocked. Expect low, be surprised young grasshopper. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Im expecting 5 inches of snow for Geneva NY. Anything more and will be pleased. More than 10 inches and will be shocked. Good point. It seems at this point that 5 inches is our minimum in our region of New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, the HRDPS is beautiful from Rochester to Syracuse. Can you do an emergency relo to say, Ohio, for a day? Asking for friends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Whats odd about euro is it doesn't really move any precip areas has same look just way drier. So not sure if storm actually moved south east. Its more of a dynamic thing I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Whats odd about euro is it doesn't really move any precip areas has same look just way drier. So not sure if storm actually moved south east. Its more of a dynamic thing I think 12z and 18z look about same as far as SLP track. It did look to be chasing some convection early on. Wish I could post a loop of the run but it's way too large a file. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So maybe some convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Maybe a tick east and one mb deeper but dang if they don’t look the same. It’s just qpf. I’d imagine placement of upper level conveyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Which model do we follow short term? We are inside 24hrs now and do we discount the Euro? We're almost in Nowcast realm. After 00Z runs, for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The 6z has lower pressures further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Very close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 No actually 18z is lower just a touch east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So every thing is same more or less just gpf is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It’s a little more progressive in its tilt (the 18z) compared to the beautiful 6z run. But I’m just a moron trying to make sense of why it dried up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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