tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 You can see the 2 lows its has gfs para in precip field. Move that one se of nyc nw just south of long Island and a entirety different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc going boom again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GGEM is always a carbon copy of the regional.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I’m more fascinated that it keeps the super cutter all snow for us later in that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like it wants to develop some good lake snows se of lake too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs still with the wave idea, some rain with the Cutter/Front.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the afternoon. Proximity to the triple point for the area of low pressure will be important for temperatures and precip types for this event. Guidance is split on triple point location and how quickly the cold front moves through. Some guidance brings stronger warm air advection north ahead of the cold front Friday morning allowing sfc temps. to warm a bit more before the cold front passes. Other guidance is quicker with the cold frontal passage, which would mean cooler temperatures for Friday. Chance POPs will continue through Saturday with cooling temperatures aloft, and the potential for lake effect. Starting at the end of the long term period, temperatures look to cool below normal again as another arctic airmass drops south out of Canada. Long range guidance suggesting 850H temps approaching -25C in the first half of the week of Feb. 7th. This would be the coldest airmass of the winter thus far if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’m more fascinated that it keeps the super cutter all snow for us later in that period. Was gonna say same...that brief rainy torch seemed locked in a few days ago. Not so much now, on multiple models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like it wants to develop some good lake snows se of lake too. I think that's exactly how SYR could do quite well out of this. Maybe we get ~5-6" from the main synaptics but then lake assist in the end gets us over the hump, so to speak. Seen it many times before. Takes a while but we get there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: I think that's exactly how SYR could do quite well out of this. Maybe we get ~5-6" from the main synaptics but then lake assist in the end gets us over the hump, so to speak. Seen it many times before. Takes a while but we get there... Exactly. That lake enhanced snow is underdone and you have to remember the lakes are warmer than normal. Living here 4 years now I find the Canadian models see this better than the other globals - and earlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc looks rocking for entire run. Gives south shore the love. All of western ny really. Dynamic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Favorite type of winter day today...deep snowcover, river iced up, cold with high overcast from impending storm obscuring the sun. LR model prospects also good. Didn't think we would get here this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 UKIE which is usually low on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 52 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: IMBY post..... love seeing Western Madison County in a snow maximum on pretty much all the models now. That said, I think this has room for improvement for all of central and Western New York. Yeah, almost all of them have that solid band in Madison and Onondaga counties. This afternoon's maps they will probably bring the 8 inch line to your area and have Northwest Onondaga at 6. They live to put us in our own little space 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: UKIE which is usually low on QPF. Great run for Syracuse here on the UKIE. Seems more reasonable for them. All depends on where that second deformation band sets up! That’s for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Last image hour 48 hrdps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: So BUF managed to break double digits for Jan snowfall thanks to the 2” of cotton balls that fell the last few days. Finished at 10” for the month, 20” below 30” average. 13” fell last Jan, so the last 2 Jan’s combined are still 7” below normal. Have to think the 10” this month is top 10 lowest...? Hope I’m wrong, but I would be very surprised if BUF breaks an inch with this next system. Doesn't even make the Top 10 least snowiest list Least Snow-January 0.7 1933 2.5 1921 2.8 1890 3.4 1944 5.4 1989 6.1 1932 6.2 2013 6.9 1988 7.0 1913 7.1 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Tasty banding setting up. Where this pivots around I could see that area over a foot. Possibly more! My best guess would be within a triangle from Syracuse to Rochester back down to Ithaca. West or East by 50 miles. Which is what makes this a bear of a forecast for Rochester and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Seeing reports of major lake enhanced snow in sw Wisconsin ne Illinois. Reports of 13 inches and still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Think Milwaukee was predicted to get 5 to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 No way is this changing. Sold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: No way is this changing. Sold. C'mon man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: C'mon man! No politics! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This is when you know something big is going down... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: C'mon man! 9 minutes ago, vortmax said: No politics! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Squeeze play going on right now with the 700MB LP, as its hitting a cinder-block wall, lol, coupled with a super dry airmass suffice to say, we won't be seeing any accumulating snow till tomorrow afternoon cause its just eating away at the moisture and it does so for a long time shes also moving ENE at a snails pace, lol. Whats important is where this LP starts to decay while most of the energy starts to transfer to the coastal so we'll see how this all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Latest Long Range Rap, for what it's worth, looks great for Syracuse and the Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Whats nice to see is the rapidly rising heights on coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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