SyracuseStorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Where the hell did that come from? RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Forgot about that one I made out ok in SECT with that one, about 10" but anyone from DC -> NYC was royally effed. The Gov of CT had all interstates closed to trucks for a day while...basically nothing happened. Storm was slow to wind up and jackpot was way far north into NE in the end IIRC. Feet of snow for some ended up a few inches and lots of slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SyracuseStorm said: Where the hell did that come from? RGEM? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Not so sure about the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Not so sure about the rgem.. I will eat my hat if the low ends up in the middle of Maine. That kind of track just does not happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Haven't seen any guidance back it that far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I made out ok in SECT with that one, about 10" but anyone from DC -> NYC was royally effed. The Gov of CT had all interstates closed to trucks for a day while...basically nothing happened. Storm was slow to wind up and jackpot was way far north into NE in the end IIRC. Feet of snow for some ended up a few inches and lots of slot. Yeah absolute disaster in Queens. IIRC 2-3' ended up as 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gives roc 1.3 liquid We aren’t even getting 1.3” in solid form, lolol. Some of these maps are smoking that sticky icky this AM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haven't seen any guidance back it that far west.. I posted one yesterday. Can’t recall. I think also RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Euro has it near maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I made out ok in SECT with that one, about 10" but anyone from DC -> NYC was royally effed. The Gov of CT had all interstates closed to trucks for a day while...basically nothing happened. Storm was slow to wind up and jackpot was way far north into NE in the end IIRC. Feet of snow for some ended up a few inches and lots of slot. I’m amazed everyone remembers this one. It’s such a classic. We planned a snowmobiling weekend in the southern tier and expected a foot plus of snow. We got a few flurries. People were so confused, they kept thinking the storm was still coming...I was trying to tell them it was over. I was actually studying at Brockport at the time so we got to do a post mortem on it. It’s when I first learned about the tricky nature of the coastal transfer. I’ve never trusted them since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: We aren’t even getting 1.3” in solid form, lolol. Some of these maps are smoking that sticky icky this AM. Seriously Delta? You don’t think we see an inch? Lol. Euro has been upping the ante for 36 hours. NAM buckled. Canadian products all show it. I think someone in the finger lakes region sees a major snow storm. I give Syracuse a better chance than Rochester but there is a conveyor wrap headed west. Just how far!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Seriously Delta? You don’t think we see an inch? Lol. Euro has been upping the ante for 36 hours. NAM buckled. Canadian products all show it. I think someone in the finger lakes region sees a major snow storm. I give Syracuse a better chance than Rochester but there is a conveyor wrap headed west. Just how far!?! I’m using a little hyperbole because that map was just ridiculous. Probably 2-3 inches here, probably from the secondary. I honestly don’t see it with a storm that far south and then that wrapped up on the coast. It’s just bad for us in far wny. Still a lot of this forum in play. Just not kROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: We aren’t even getting 1.3” in solid form, lolol. Some of these maps are smoking that sticky icky this AM. Yeah well so am I, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 hours ago, rochesterdave said: speed: Maine!!!! Here it is. Had it in Maine last night too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah well so am I, lol! I just eat gummies these days. Like a lot. Make my own. But alas, banter page stuff! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Given the continued model spread for this period, just made incremental changes to POPS and snow amounts, adjusting POPS higher and a little farther westward late Monday night through Wednesday. Also adjusted snow amounts a little higher and a little farther west, essentially a compromise solution between the ECMWF/GEM idea and the GFS, and close to WPC guidance and multi-model ensembles. Continued mention in the HWO for accumulating snow for this time period for the Genesee Valley eastward. Watch/Warning criteria snowfall is a possibility if the ECMWF/GEM verify, but confidence is not high enough in this scenario yet for a watch given the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: I just eat gummies these days. Like a lot. Make my own. But alas, banter page stuff! edibles have come a long long way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs took a step in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GFS caves. Boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’m amazed everyone remembers this one. It’s such a classic. We planned a snowmobiling weekend in the southern tier and expected a foot plus of snow. We got a few flurries. People were so confused, they kept thinking the storm was still coming...I was trying to tell them it was over. I was actually studying at Brockport at the time so we got to do a post mortem on it. It’s when I first learned about the tricky nature of the coastal transfer. I’ve never trusted them since. Yeah it was mega hyped pre storm. The Superstorm of 1993 was still a somewhat recent event in people's memories. It Seemed locked in for a couple of days...and then reality happened. I also don't trust Miller B's ever since then. Frankly, if SYR to ROC bag 4-6" from this I'd walk away considering it a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Not a big change but it is much closer to what the Europeans and Canadians been selling. Now we just gotta kick up that QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs was improved. Has system pulling out to fast and not tucked. Yes dave thats meant for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I don't see the GFS jumping on board. It is being a stubborn child that doesn't like to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So BUF managed to break double digits for Jan snowfall thanks to the 2” of cotton balls that fell the last few days. Finished at 10” for the month, 20” below 30” average. 13” fell last Jan, so the last 2 Jan’s combined are still 7” below normal. Have to think the 10” this month is top 10 lowest...? Hope I’m wrong, but I would be very surprised if BUF breaks an inch with this next system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Para caving too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: So BUF managed to break double digits for Jan snowfall thanks to the 2” of cotton balls that fell the last few days. Finished at 10” for the month, 20” below 30” average. 13” fell last Jan, so the last 2 Jan’s combined are still 7” below normal. Have to think the 10” this month is top 10 lowest...? Hope I’m wrong, but I would be very surprised if BUF breaks an inch with this next system. Get ready to be surprised. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 IMBY post..... love seeing Western Madison County in a snow maximum on pretty much all the models now. That said, I think this has room for improvement for all of central and Western New York. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: IMBY post..... love seeing Western Madison County in a snow maximum on pretty much all the models now. That said, I think this has room for improvement for all of central and Western New York. Been waiting for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 8:16 PM, 96blizz said: 18z EPS. don’t sleep on it yet. It’s trending back to a stalled and occluding low that spirals bands NW... Long shot but ya never know! This is when things started! How far we have come since Friday evening!! ”Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.” - Colin Powell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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