Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well...good to see model trends intact on 6Z runs. Ty is correct in that the placement of the H850 and H700 lows is favorable for us. Big unknown with these secondary redevelopers is the exact nature of how it happens. I'd expect some more model turbulence with that today. Some things that look pretty likely across most models: - All trending NW with precip shield. - Possible change to rain/slot in SNE and BWI-DCA-PHL - Jackpot in eastern PA / WNJ - Mohawk Valley downslope(?) - Geneva to Roc seem favored (lake assisted?) - BGM wins again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nam looks like euro 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, tim123 said: High end That’s what I Like to see!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Well...good to see model trends intact on 6Z runs. Ty is correct in that the placement of the H850 and H700 lows is favorable for us. Big unknown with these secondary redevelopers is the exact nature of how it happens. I'd expect some more model turbulence with that today. Some things that look pretty likely across most models: - All trending NW with precip shield. - Possible change to rain/slot in SNE and BWI-DCA-PHL - Jackpot in eastern PA / WNJ - Mohawk Valley downslope(?) - Geneva to Roc seem favored (lake assisted?) - BGM wins again. You forgot one: -wolfie brawls with somebody 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Huge relief to see the NAM cave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! I am really not that big a fan of the sun....and love days and days of clouds with flakes falling every day. But....wow, is Upstate gloomy! The sun is somewhat acceptable on quite cold days when it won't ruin snowpack as much. I’ll let it slide this time, what’s next a poster that loves the wind?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I’ll let it slide this time, what’s next a poster that loves the wind?!?! That would be DeltaT13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: That would be DeltaT13. Yeah I know I was throwing shade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I like wind too. That event back 5 6 years ago in March was wild. 70 to 90 mph gusts. Then a 2 foot snowstorm a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Srefs will be juicy. Post this on PA/Mid Atlantic forums- think they are ignoring the NAM and are posting maps with 20” that show 4-7” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’ll let it slide this time, what’s next a poster that loves the wind?!?! 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I know I was throwing shade 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 If NAM and SREFs correct my forecast contest #s are in trouble down in the DC to PHL and MDT area. The jackpot seems to be shifting North with time on all models. Shocked face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 We’ve barely had any wind storms this year. Huge disappointment on a year with very little snow too. Usually you can trade one for another, because cutters usually are at least wind producers. But this year it’s just benign weather for weeks on end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 RGEM weaker and drier. Edit, just delayed. Not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 ICON coming in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Ugh. We knew it was coming. The end to the west jogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I wouldn’t even be tracking this dog of a storm if it wasn’t for you guys. So I’m grateful for you all keeping it positive around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Ugh. We knew it was coming. The end to the west jogs. Stop hugging- ping pong all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, SyracuseStorm said: Post this on PA/Mid Atlantic forums- think they are ignoring the NAM and are posting maps with 20” that show 4-7” Yeah, I've been noticing same down there...I'm not sure this is their best setup as the low really tucks in close. I am still chastened by the infamous March 2000 Miller B fiasco. Reality, and what models predict, can be quite different, even close in ti the event. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 RGEM looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'd reluctantly take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, I've been noticing same down there...I'm not sure this is their best setup as the low really tucks in close. I am still chastened by the infamous March 2000 Miller B fiasco. Reality, and what models predict, can be quite different, even close in ti the event. We'll see. Forgot about that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rgem is trolling the weenie zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I'd reluctantly take it. Still snowing for a while too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 One thing that i think will be frustrating for most of us in SYR -> ROC is that we will have to wait for "our turn" while we see areas S&E get raked tonight and Monday. This is really a Mon night and Tues event here. Assuming it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: lol, really tired of the 5" call for IMBY. Twice in the last week that turned into 1-2" in reality, and frankly I'd expect the same this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gives roc 1.3 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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