TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I was beginning to think it wasn’t going to freeze this year but once the weather got cold it doesn’t take long. I’m sure the ice fishing shacks are out in force although I believe the ice needs to be 4 inches thick to be out on it. Nice. How far are you from the lake? 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: And that 55ft. covers a very small area. Ave. Is about 20-25'. That said, you can get enhancement from any frozen ( especially, long/narrow) bodies of water just through frictional convergence mechanisms...but obviously, open water adds moisture along with the convergence. In early season cold snaps, Sylvan/Verona Beachs and points east can certainly be enhanced by Oneida Lake. Thanks for the response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 06z euro for breakfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: And that 55ft. covers a very small area. Ave. Is about 20-25'. That said, you can get enhancement from any frozen ( especially, long/narrow) bodies of water just through frictional convergence mechanisms...but obviously, open water adds moisture along with the convergence. In early season cold snaps, Sylvan/Verona Beachs and points east can certainly be enhanced by Oneida Lake. I've seen some of the coolest river - effect snow up near Morristown along the St Lawrence. Was so cold you could see the entire process from evaporation to precipitation. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Steam fog rising is amazing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 "Steam Fog Rising" sounds like a great movie title Squirrel moment ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: 06z euro for breakfast? A little NW and/or wetter with the QPF. It's trying its best to give everyone in the forum atleast 6... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I hear we're in for Nasty weather. I hear there's snow squalls on the way. I see my snowboard overflowing. I hear there's steam fog on the way. Do do do looking at snow out my back door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: A little NW of 0z run with the precip... Wow that has warning criteria snows to KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looks like the kuchera ratios in eastern pa are 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 to 1 over western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Albany is bullish. So 1-3" seems like a good bet lol. They're clearly not buying the downslope feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Something has to give between NAM and the other global models and soon. BGM also just made it super confusing with their first round of headlines for this event. They have Steuben under a WWA for entire duration of the 2 part storm for 4-7, then rest of the S Tier under a WWA for just the light snow associated with the primary and then a WSW for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I see kbuf expanded there hwo to include Orleans County west of roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The RGEM has No.Onondaga county and most of Oswego county downsloping into my area and that just doesn't happen so I call BS on the RGEM, lol! Bro the winds are more out of the north/NNW and eventually NW lol The enhancement just hugs the shore and misses that area verbatim. If anyone is going to downslope it's me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Albany is bullish. So 1-3" seems like a good bet lol. They're clearly not buying the downslope feature. Models actually ticked up for us....Besides the NAM. But I do think this is a little bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Wolfie just threw out the "bro" card. Next up: "Drop the mic" wolfie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wolfie just threw out the "bro" card. Next up: "Drop the mic" wolfie Hold my beer wants some action 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This is confounding! The EURO is insistent and the American models say whatever. Like 48 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12Z HRRR is definitely farther north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Sref plumes up to almost 8 in kbuf and 12 in roc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: This is confounding! The EURO is insistent and the American models say whatever. Like 48 hours out! Cmc on board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hrrr changes nyc northern NJ to rain gets a mix up to albany.Albany. throws snow back to Genesee valley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Sref plumes up to almost 8 in kbuf and 12 in roc. Which maps are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Which maps are you using? Sref plumes. Google it will take you to site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hrrr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hrrr changes nyc northern NJ to rain gets a mix up to albany.Albany. throws snow back to Genesee valley Impressive output but long range HRRR isn't the best lol. NAM should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some serious number from the EC, dang. Pretty sad we can't lock this not even 2 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Impressive output but long range HRRR isn't the best lol. NAM should be better. Rgem cmc and euro show this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Sref plumes. Google it will take you to site I know how to use Google. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Bro the winds are more out of the north/NNW and eventually NW lol The enhancement just hugs the shore and misses that area verbatim. If anyone is going to downslope it's me lol Winds start out Easterly bro then go NW then NNW after the system passes so I don't exactly know what ur getting at here but anyway...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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