BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You know we have no cold when 10-1 gives you more snow than Kuchera during lake effect lol That's what the Canadian shows for next event.. Yeah, that's crazy. I don't know how you get good lake effect with temps that warm. I know lake temps are very warm, but still the temps are so marginal. Synoptic aid can help a lot though as it becomes more lake enhanced vs lake effect snow, especially out your way closer to the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Meh I’m having a hard time buying that. You have an initial LP over Northern lower Michigan and a transfer low over eastern NY/VT...yet somehow no throwback moisture? Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 European is definitely farther east with the stuff on sat morning than most other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Won't be getting much lake effect with these temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 European is as stingy as they come lol Which will probably verify.. Granted when the model shows feet here we see nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Analogs for this weekend. This is a higher elevation event, Chau. ridge and tug. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2021011412&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Won't be getting much lake effect with these temps Not much different than the RGEM which shows plenty of it lol NWS is only calling for-6c-8c which they claim is good enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 European jumps 100s of miles run to run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The model just sucks at showing lake induced precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The model just sucks at showing lake induced precipitation.. Always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just read a post that the PV has split for a second time this month and is looking like a 3rd possibly late month again...this has to be the strangest overall weather pattern I can remember. Indicies in the right zones? Check. Major SSW? Check. Where’s the cold air? Missing. We have checked just about every box necessary for a colder than average winter and yet we may break records for warmth...this might just be our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just read a post that the PV has split for a second time this month and is looking like a 3rd possibly late month again...this has to be the strangest overall weather pattern I can remember. Indicies in the right zones? Check. Major SSW? Check. Where’s the cold air? Missing. We have checked just about every box necessary for a colder than average winter and yet we may break records for warmth...this might just be our future. Global weather change. Plus, never toss the EURO. Just my 2 cents. It sure is annoying. Im pretty convinced this weekend will leave us green in Rochester. Chautauqua ridge should do well. ADK’s will do well. IDK. We just can’t shake this nonsense 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Agreed, Rochester and the rest of the low areas of WNY/CNY, etc are shot this year. Unless by some strange deal big cold shows up and we get a nice lake dump before this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Watches issued for Oswego, jefferson and Lewis.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Stacked low over the Upper Mississippi valley Friday morning will move to Illinois/Indiana by Friday evening, while its associated surface occlusion will advance from the Upper Ohio Valley to the southwest corner of New York state. Warmer air ahead of the system will allow the nearly all the precipitation that arrives by afternoon into western New York ahead of the occlusion to fall as rain. Temperatures will climb well into the 40s across the lake plains. The main surface low will move into the Great Lakes and weaken Friday night as a secondary wave develops along the occlusion near New Jersey and then takes over as the primary low as it moves into New England Saturday. Colder air will wrap into the area Friday night with a change over to wet snow, but snow accumulations through Saturday will be limited to an inch or two for most, with better accumulations confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where significant accumulation is possible. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Maturing low pressure centered over central New England Saturday night will travel northeast across Maine and eventually enter New Brunswick by Sunday evening. In its wake, west-northwesterly flow will support a few to several inches of accumulating snow east of both lakes. Diving into the details, temperatures at 850mb throughout this period will average around -8C throughout the majority of the period. While this isn`t cold enough for pure lake effect, the west- northwest flow along with wrap around moisture from the departing low will support lake enhancement off of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Of the two lakes, snows off of Lake Ontario, especially locations in close proximity of the Tug Hill, will have the better chances for accumulating snows due to possibilities of lake to lake connections. Though not as favorable, the snows off of Lake Erie look best to accumulate across the Chautauqua Ridge. Chances for lake snows will continue throughout the day on Sunday with a couple of inches of additional snowfall possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Stacked low over the Upper Mississippi valley Friday morning will move to Illinois/Indiana by Friday evening, while its associated surface occlusion will advance from the Upper Ohio Valley to the southwest corner of New York state. Warmer air ahead of the system will allow the nearly all the precipitation that arrives by afternoon into western New York ahead of the occlusion to fall as rain. Temperatures will climb well into the 40s across the lake plains. The main surface low will move into the Great Lakes and weaken Friday night as a secondary wave develops along the occlusion near New Jersey and then takes over as the primary low as it moves into New England Saturday. Colder air will wrap into the area Friday night with a change over to wet snow, but snow accumulations through Saturday will be limited to an inch or two for most, with better accumulations confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where significant accumulation is possible. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Maturing low pressure centered over central New England Saturday night will travel northeast across Maine and eventually enter New Brunswick by Sunday evening. In its wake, west-northwesterly flow will support a few to several inches of accumulating snow east of both lakes. Diving into the details, temperatures at 850mb throughout this period will average around -8C throughout the majority of the period. While this isn`t cold enough for pure lake effect, the west- northwest flow along with wrap around moisture from the departing low will support lake enhancement off of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Of the two lakes, snows off of Lake Ontario, especially locations in close proximity of the Tug Hill, will have the better chances for accumulating snows due to possibilities of lake to lake connections. Though not as favorable, the snows off of Lake Erie look best to accumulate across the Chautauqua Ridge. Chances for lake snows will continue throughout the day on Sunday with a couple of inches of additional snowfall possible. As I expected. It's elevation driven upslope event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Can't believe we're STILL talking about "elevation events' in mid-January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Lake to lake connection? That's usually a solid band not upslope..They also say "close proximity" to the tug lol Obviously higher elevations will always win out.. Saturday Night Snow showers likely before midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lake to lake connection? That's usually a solid band not upslope..They also say "close proximity" to the tug lol Obviously higher elevations will always win out.. Saturday Night Snow showers likely before midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Yeah I just meant for here, you should still do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I just meant for here, you should still do well. I gotta admit I think I’m starting to move past this “winter”. I have a lot of projects planned for spring time (new super deck, A/C unit and pool heater plus new driveway) and I would at this point just like to move this along. This boring, sorta cold but not really cold enough with little in the way of Lake effect at all is enough for me to just say screw it. Words I never thought I’d mutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 12z vs 18z NAM.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I gotta admit I think I’m starting to move past this “winter”. I have a lot of projects planned for spring time (new super deck, A/C unit and pool heater plus new driveway) and I would at this point just like to move this along. This boring, sorta cold but not really cold enough with little in the way of Lake effect at all is enough for me to just say screw it. Words I never thought I’d mutter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3k looks fine..It's in the LR and just starting verbatim.. Surface is right at freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k looks fine..It's in the LR and just starting verbatim.. Surface is right at freezing.. As usual, BUF disco was spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Rgem still showing an impressive event.. Little north of previous runs..Still a day away before SR models become useful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 When the local met has to tweet out that he called the BUF office to see if they agreed it would snow Saturday night. Amateur hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 BGM first call...looks largely reasonable. @sferic you could get 3-4” from this. Not looking for more than 1-2” where I am in Narrowsburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Kbuf first call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem still showing an impressive event.. Little north of previous runs..Still a day away before SR models become useful.. All snow here too, surface could be better but I'll take my chances with that solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Gfs composite starting to show some enhancement east of Ontario but it's short lived compared to the Canadians.. It also has a marginal burst of synoptic snow sat morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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