Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lock in 14. In all seriousness I have zero expectations yet with all these wild swings and solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Actually it’s a lot further NW than any of the guidance prior to the Binghamton special. Which is why I’m staying hopeful something gives. I recall my brother, who lives in Western NJ being excited for "2 feet" of snow. I think they ended up with 8 or 9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I recall my brother, who lives in Western NJ being excited for "2 feet" of snow. I think they ended up with 8 or 9"... Yeah I think I was "expecting" 6-10"....ended up with 31" depth. Band set up here and BGM and just kept dumping and dumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I recall my brother, who lives in Western NJ being excited for "2 feet" of snow. I think they ended up with 8 or 9"... Lol! Both my brothers live in NNJ and just the opposite- I told them potential for 2” and they got 25% of that. I had to eat sh*t on that one. told them to gear up for this one nonetheless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah I think I was "expecting" 6-10"....ended up with 31" depth. Band set up here and BGM and just kept dumping and dumping. Yes...the storm probably would have delivered close to expectations for your area except for the Mother of Stationary Snowbands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: Yes...the storm probably would have delivered close to expectations for your area except for the Mother of Stationary Snowbands. Mother of Stationary Snowbands aka that word we don’t use on this forum that begins with d. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: Yes...the storm probably would have delivered close to expectations for your area except for the Mother of Stationary Snowbands. Craziest synoptic feature I’ve ever seen. It just stayed there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Here was a couple of the models leading up to the mid December storm. BGM was mostly on the NW fringe of heavy snow for a while... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Here was a couple of the models leading up to the mid December storm. BGM was mostly on the NW fringe of heavy snow for a while... Good post! That's what I recall. IIRC many of the models initially had a max even further west out in CPA which shifted (?) east. I don't believe CPA ever verified in full with that idea. Banding is always the wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hi RES Canadian had a decent take but about 50 miles too SE. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Much bigger storm than I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The Para GFS was actually the first model I think to bullseye the I-88 corridor but it was still in a trial phase at the time I believe so there wasn't many model runs for that storm. But then again a broken clock is always right twice a day... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hi RES Canadian had a decent take but about 50 miles too SE. right? Here is good link for 18z Canadian https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I have to get my forecast contest prediction in by 10pm. He sets it up that way so that at best you only get a peak at the 00Z NAM for any late trends. The rest of the model suites come out after that. Always makes it tougher! http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-snow-storm-2-call-for.html?m=1 Harrisburg to near BWI look to be one jackpot zone. Not sure I'm fully buying... I like the contest bc it gives you something to get your mind into even if your not "in the game" for the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I have to get my forecast contest prediction in by 10pm. He sets it up that way so that at best you only get a peak at the 00Z NAM for any late trends. The rest of the model suites come out after that. Always makes it tougher! http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-snow-storm-2-call-for.html?m=1 Harrisburg to near BWI look to be one jackpot zone. Not sure I'm fully buying... I like the contest bc it gives you something to get your mind into even if your not "in the game" for the event. BWI and DC almost always get screwed. Harrisburg to Scranton up over to S. Vermont would be my best guess. I still like SE finger lakes for secondary sweet spot. But that’s a little more tentative. Do you pick a single station as the winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18z Euro looking pretty close to 12z overall. Looks to be throwing more precip further west along south shore for our Roc folks. Will post when done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Great run for Rochester. Even BUF gets into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: BWI and DC almost always get screwed. Harrisburg to Scranton up over to S. Vermont would be my best guess. I still like SE finger lakes for secondary sweet spot. But that’s a little more tentative. Do you pick a single station as the winner? No the contest is for 27 different stations, from RDU in NC up to CAR in Maine. The foreacats are statistically scored looking at all the forecasts. So you are forecasting the whole system, not just one spot or area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Loving these 18z runs you guys are posting. Need to ingest them now and then one quick look at the 0Z NAM before 10p deadline tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18z Euro... Last Frame at hour 90... Total precip thru 12z Wednesday... Kuchera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I'd take that...are 850s gonna be cold enough for enhancement like that? What's with the ALB snow hole? East wind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro... Last Frame at hour 90... Total precip thru 12z Wednesday... Kuchera Hell. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: I'd take that...are 850s gonna be cold enough for enhancement like that? Still snowing. @BGM Blizzard posted the total! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Plenty cold for enhancement. EURO just dropped the hammer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Euro really spread the love that run. WSW for everyone pretty near! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1-2 feet from Rochester through the finger lakes. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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