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Upstate/Eastern New York


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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

CMC has pretty big LES for Buffalo next week, GFS is a few days later but both now have it. A race against the lake freezing though. 

The lake is not freezing before that potential event. Tonight’s the last cold night then we’re in mid 30s to near 40 almost all week and even into the 40s by next weekend. There’s little to no ice now and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Maybe where water is the coldest and shallowest near Toledo develops some thin ice but won’t have any impact on lake effect potential. 

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So the EURO came in hot!!
To me, this just never looked like a suppressed megalopolis storm. But it wasn’t until we got some blocking that it really looked interesting. Definitely has the capacity to be a big one. That deformation zone is going to be key. Has King weighed in? 
Wolfie mentioned these have trouble throwing precip back too far, and he’s right. South shore enhancement might be the key to getting the Buf-Syracuse region into the fun. Watch Binghamton get another 2’. Lol
I think it’s going to be a BIG ONE! It’s ringing all my bells.  Fun to watch for sure. 

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