vortmax Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 GFS through 102... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Wouldn't be surprised if this was snow not rain like the 3k has.. Would give us a morning burst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para is all snow sat morning, heaviest just to my west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para is pretty good for most but unlike the Canadian guidance doesn't really show much enhancement east/se of Ontario..Lighter precipitation on NW flow with marginal temps mehh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 GFS run is pretty warm, no real arctic air at all within 10 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS run is pretty warm, no real arctic air at all within 10 days. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para has most of the enhancement east of Erie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 At least the gfs is all snow. No LES opportunities but I’ll take the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Bet that little blip over Ontario is a meso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Still in its LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Another big hit on the Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Very early call here would be 2"-4" Saturday and another 4"-8" sat night/early Sunday..6"-12" total from syracuse to Pulaski (more on the tug)Seems reasonable..Snow will be heavy and wet but I grew up in NYC/NJ that's what we do..lol Should have some decent staying power and be "picturesque"..As much as I would love the Canadian guidance I have to see some SR guidance back it a little lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Para has most of the enhancement east of Erie.. Pretty big hit here. Things are looking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS run is pretty warm, no real arctic air at all within 10 days. I think we’re in a good spot on the GFS, near the baroclinic zone between the arctic air to the north and milder air to the south. That will put us close to the path of a series of lows that originate over the southern plains and track northeast. Right now it looks like they will pass south of us putting us on the snowy side. Of course it remains to be seen how this works out but at least it looks interesting. I’ll take 30 and snow over 5 and bone dry. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Canadian would be awesome, nearly 2' here. Tossed farther then uncle Ricos football. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Ukmet still pretty far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I think we’re in a good spot on the GFS, near the baroclinic zone between the arctic air to the north and milder air to the south. That will put us close to the path of a series of lows that originate over the southern plains and track northeast. Right now it looks like they will pass south of us putting us on the snowy side. Of course it remains to be seen how this works out but at least it looks interesting. I’ll take 30 and snow over 5 and bone dry. You're right, we're in a really good spot for synoptic. In the battlezone, feel pretty confident in 1/2 storms the next 2-3 weeks. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I guess this is worst case scenario at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 At the end of the day it's nowcasting like every event lol We have a thousand different models with a thousand different solutions, nearly impossible to ever have a "consensus".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 So far the camps have stuck together so I'd expect the european to be pretty far west as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Canadian would be awesome, nearly 2' here. Tossed farther then uncle Ricos football. And yet that’s the model the NWS is hanging it’s hard in! Nuttier than Eddie Murphy in the nutty professor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 ^^^ To be fair that includes a clipper/LES event after that time frame.. Kbuf receives 0.5" through 84.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Whatever the NAM 3k is on, can I have some? Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Wpc doesn't seem to impressed especially considering some of this could be liquid and marginal temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Obviously the GEFS is pretty low resolution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And yet that’s the model the NWS is hanging it’s hard in! Nuttier than Eddie Murphy in the nutty professor If they are then they better start upping their accumulation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Local Mets are starting o get in the synoptic/hybrid train for Saturday night through Sunday. I think we all score something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: ^^^ To be fair that includes a clipper/LES event after that time frame.. Kbuf receives 0.5" through 84.. Yeah most of the snow for WNY on CAN is a lake effect event Monday into Tuesday. Only showing widespread inch with 2-4” on the hills for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 You know we have no cold when 10-1 gives you more snow than Kuchera during lake effect lol That's what the Canadian shows for next event.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 12z Euro is starting to run - let's see how she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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