BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 After a small LES event today into tomorrow it looks like a cutter goes into the northern Great Lakes with a possibility of a redeveloping low in the Northeast. This will allow a chance at a stronger LES event at the end of the weekend. This weekend DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night through Sunday night. Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday, while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows into Monday. Looking further ahead it looks like the EPO goes negative around the 20th. The other indices below With a -EPO and -NAO it should set a battleground for synoptic systems somewhere near our area. I still see some cutters, but we should get into a more active wintry pattern. Looking even further out below EPS GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Buf is currently +6 for the month. Snowfall departure: -12.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Some light snow here with a little graupel mixed in..Temp has dropped a little below freezing ever since it started snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 GEFS for snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS for snowfall Wow most of the members show quite a bit of snow through the period. I’m still amazed how long the 3 main indicies are in the best place for us and it’s been so warm. I guess going forward if the EPO isn’t negative the other 3 don’t matter much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: After a small LES event today into tomorrow it looks like a cutter goes into the northern Great Lakes with a possibility of a redeveloping low in the Northeast. This will allow a chance at a stronger LES event at the end of the weekend. This weekend DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night through Sunday night. Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday, while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows into Monday. Looking further ahead it looks like the EPO goes negative around the 20th. The other indices below With a -EPO and -NAO it should set a battleground for synoptic systems somewhere near our area. I still see some cutters, but we should get into a more active wintry pattern. Looking even further out below EPS GEFS It didn’t get past me that the NWS has the northern half of Erie county in the “better” accumulation for the weak event tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS for snowfall I will take #15 for a dollar Bob... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 GEFS with a nice Look for this weekend.. Obviously some must be synoptic .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Geez150 said: I will take #15 for a dollar Bob... Yeah. Saw that one. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Boy, weekends storm is funny. Clipper that tracks north and pops up SE only to retrograde NW. Wolfie, you’re the only person who that works for. Surprised to see the synoptic paint around Bing (well, not THAAAT surprised). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Last nights ukmet wasn't much different than the GFS products, just a little east.. Would be nice to cash in on a little synoptic and LES lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Boy, weekends storm is funny. Clipper that tracks north and pops up SE only to retrograde NW. Wolfie, you’re the only person who that works for. Surprised to see the synoptic paint around Bing (well, not THAAAT surprised). Yeah it due to the position of the CF as the wave rides up it..All about timing..If the CF is a little quicker it could be more of a WNW flow so we'll see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 RGEM for todays event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It didn’t get past me that the NWS has the northern half of Erie county in the “better” accumulation for the weak event tonight. Tonights event is all northern Erie. Like I said last night the way the wave is coming in it favors SW even SSW wind. You should be in a good spot for a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 If the front slows down a bit we may be able to cash in more synoptic snow.. Going to be close but when isn't it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the front slows down a bit we may be able to cash in more synoptic snow.. Going to be close but when isn't it.. The Christmas eve front certainly slowed - hoping this one does as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 At least this lackluster winter isnt confined to just our area. The whole country is really struggling this year. Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: At least this lackluster isnt confined to just our area. The whole country is really struggling this year. Some areas really county on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up. The south is having a record year which to me is very odd as we are at +6 for January yet its snowing in Texas/Louisana somehow! A really odd pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Icon delivers a little snow for CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Icon would be pretty big LES event for Erie County. Goes on for a few days with meandering bands. Temps not all that cold but its enough. Sunday-Weds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Gfs has a quick shot of snow but not much precipitation on the NW side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 You can see the difference from run to run as the CF sped up some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 47 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: At least this lackluster isnt confined to just our area. The whole country is really struggling this year. Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up. Real happy my Northern Rockies trip was last year. BC is the only game in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Gfs not impressive wrt LES, weak West-WNW flow.. Starts to bounce back ahead of the next clipper.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 GFS is dropping the PV to us with changing wind directions! Look at those lower pressures over Hudson Bay. Classic. -EPO allows the cold air to come down from Canada and the -NAO allows the blocking and retrogradation of lows to Hudson bay. Wayy out there, but Buffalos blockbuster LES events have a similar setup to below image. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: At least this lackluster winter isnt confined to just our area. The whole country is really struggling this year. Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up. Europe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is dropping the PV to us with changing wind directions! Look at those lower pressures over Hudson Bay. Classic. -EPO allows the cold air to come down from Canada and the -NAO allows the blocking and retrogradation of lows to Hudson bay. Wayy out there, but Buffalos blockbuster LES events have a similar setup to below image. Thank you SSW... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Thank you SSW... I think the real cold gets delayed. The GFS is always about a week to quick in its forecasting of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Canadian shuts off the lake effect pretty quick.. Lake effect and synoptic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Europe Lakes will be on fire starting next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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