CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 hours ago, tim123 said: The precip field on rgem makes the most sence i seen yet. Why, cause it gives you the most snow, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Lol no just the uniformity. Not all blobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rgem running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rgem still snowing at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I wonder if Oneida Lake has ever enhanced snowfall on an easterly fetch? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lol no just the uniformity. Not all blobby Just kidding Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 If this beautifully closed 700mb lp moves ENE through PA then we'll be ok as we'll be just to the NW of the 700mb trough which would be ideal for our area so we'll see but this will turn into a nowcasting situation come tomorrow evening into Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Do you know if there's 06z cmc run. Could of swore there are of hour runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Whats left of it does go across pa on rgem. Is rgem considered a mesoscale model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Whats left of it does go across pa on rgem. Is rgem considered a mesoscale model? I believe so but I'm not too sure. I'm not too concerned with all these precip maps as much as I am with the mid lvl lp's as thats where we get all out moisture and precip from. In the end, those maps rarely ever verify, thats why I usually don't pay them any mind but they sure look colorful, lol! Case in point, the last system didn't resemble the any of the precip maps that were posted prior to the event, when the event was over and done with so why are we so concerned with them now?? The 850MB lp with the last event was situated right over KROC and thats why we slotted fairly quickly after the first band came through and then we drizzled for the next several hrs before what minimal LE kicked in. The 700MB LP with the last event was also situated right overhead but with this next event both the 700 and 850 LP's go to our South so I can't see how we escape a plowable snowfall here in CNY but I could be wrong but we'll see soon enough! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 ICON maintains that tight cutoff. Someone gets the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon gfs do a dumbell with 2 lows on coast. Cmc rgem euro keep first low tucked near NYC with another low forming in altlantic and drive into maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GFS says goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html. here dave 06z canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Those 3 models all have a clean capture. Gfs and icon are sloppy with the competing lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Look at the tough this digs out. It goes negative tilt from Florida to michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Don’t forget NAM. It’s never liked the westward thing. Interesting to see. I’m 50/50 now. Gonna be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Big difference in capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc is textbook. Gfs is strung out and kinda messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 While all eyes are on this Monday-Tuesday storm, what’s it looking like for later in the week? Warm forecasts on TWC and NWS keep getting adjusted lower. Too good to be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, winter_rules said: While all eyes are on this Monday-Tuesday storm, what’s it looking like for later in the week? Warm forecasts on TWC and NWS keep getting adjusted lower. Too good to be true? No it’s definitely trending colder and right after possibly our biggest cold dump of the year with cold SW winds...you’re welcome BW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 All models missing northern extent of precip vs. radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: All models missing northern extent of precip vs. radar: Gonna smack into a brick wall but exactly where matters for so many up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I wonder if Oneida Lake has ever enhanced snowfall on an easterly fetch? The lake is completely ice covered right now so any influence would be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Too early to start talking about the LES potential around day 10? Or is everyone still comparing hot dogs and arguing over dipping sauce? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The lake is completely ice covered right now so any influence would be minimal. Wow, that sucker freezes fast. Greatest depth is like 55 feet, so really it's New York's largest puddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, that sucker freezes fast. Greatest depth is like 55 feet, so really it's New York's largest puddle. I was beginning to think it wasn’t going to freeze this year but once the weather got cold it doesn’t take long. I’m sure the ice fishing shacks are out in force although I believe the ice needs to be 4 inches thick to be out on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, that sucker freezes fast. Greatest depth is like 55 feet, so really it's New York's largest puddle. And that 55ft. covers a very small area. Ave. Is about 20-25'. That said, you can get enhancement from any frozen ( especially, long/narrow) bodies of water just through frictional convergence mechanisms...but obviously, open water adds moisture along with the convergence. In early season cold snaps, Sylvan/Verona Beachs and points east can certainly be enhanced by Oneida Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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