TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Can't forget the models probably struggle with picking up on the possible enhancement on a NW flow as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Para slightly improved as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 00Z models are really pushing on the downsloping off the Tug in Oswego County and possibly northern Onondaga. That's not really much of an effect. The elevation difference is pretty minimal. It's not like the Hudson Valley with the Berks to the east and even there it takes a unique set of conditions for it to be a large effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Para slightly improved as well. Post it bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The GFS is really trying to get the goods into Syracuse....and....Binghamton! lol BGM may win the Golden Snowball this year at this rate. All the usual competitors are spitting the bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: That's not really much of an effect. The elevation difference is pretty minimal. It's not like the Hudson Valley with the Berks to the east and even there it takes a unique set of conditions for it to be a large effect. Interesting. In PA, we would have horrible downsloping from 1,000 foot hills...but then again, that was often with a drying, NW wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Post it bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting. In PA, we would have horrible downsloping from 1,000 foot hills...but then again, that was often with a drying, NW wind. Tug Hill isn't really a hill. It's a gradual rise in the land into a sort of plateau at a higher elevation. I guess there could be some downslope effect but I think that's more of a localized issue in cold air drainage during nights with optimal radiational cooling. Which is why KART can see some outrageously low temps on winter mornings, which are mixed out fairly quickly after sunrise. For large scale synoptic forcing, I wouldn't think it's that much of an effect. Maybe slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Here ya go Wolfie and Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc looks to be a good hit for roc again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Here ya go Wolfie and Matt Nice banding signature there over CNY. Hope its real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Candians want to absolutely obliterate E PA. NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cmc looks to be a good hit for roc again Same basic idea. But less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Canadian precip shield makes the most sense IMO. Obviously way overdone in E PA but should be more uniform as it shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 If this scenario plays, I think we’ll see major assist from the lakes. You can see it even priming SWNY with Erie love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Might pop into the PA thread for sh*ts and giggles I'd imagine it's a weenie haven atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'd sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Dave about same qpf. But the nice thing is it spread precip much more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Might pop into the PA thread for sh*ts and giggles I'd imagine it's a weenie haven atm Come back to NYC for the week lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Come back to NYC for the week lol Wanted to for 12/17. Glad I didn't. Hopefully we all cash in ala Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Not worth much but RAP looks solid. E PA wrecked on it too.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 speed: Maine!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So medium range gfs has more rain with the cutter/CF before giving us some light-moderate snow from a secondary wave..LR still showing LES potential, only 8-9 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc 12z top 00z bottom. Slight bump down but way more precip westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So medium range gfs has more rain with the cutter/CF before giving us some light-moderate snow from a secondary wave..LR still showing LES potential, only 8-9 days away Yeah GEM and GFS has pretty massive LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It's one of the sickest runs I have seen lol Wrt LES.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: It's one of the sickest runs I have seen lol Wrt LES.. Yep drops 4-5' over my spot. GEM joined the GFS finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nice 700mb Fronotgenic forcing / UVV banding signature over CNY on the 0Z CMC. NAM has this further east and wrapped tighter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah GEM and GFS has pretty massive LES event. W and SW flow. Noone cares. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: W and SW flow. Noone cares. It's been showing up for awhile, it's coming. One last hurrah for Erie. Nice 100" bomb over the tug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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