tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Anything after 48 hours on nam is a crap shooter. It waffles and lags usually to globals. Could it be correct yeah. It sniffs out trends. But the look is diffrent than 12z or 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Clearly BGM, BUF and ALB are waiting it out for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The nam looked good on last storm at 60 hours out. We all know how that one turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I think I'm gladly going to eat crow on my call that this would be suppressed. Whatever happens, this upcoming week definitely looks more active and interesting than it was looking just 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I think I'm gladly going to eat crow on my call that this would be suppressed. Whatever happens, this upcoming week definitely looks more active and interesting than it was looking just 2 days ago. Enjoy! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Enjoy! Thanks! Any dipping sauce suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: I would prefer it more north than west. That would put us more in the solid band and moisture stream. Preach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks! Any dipping sauce suggestions? Yes, here: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My Forecast Contest #s: CAR: 9 BGR: 4.5 PWM: 8.8 CON: 7.0 BTV: 4.5 BOS: 5.0 HYA: 1.5 ORH: 9.0 PVD: 4.5 BDR: 9.0 BDL: 7.5 ALB: 6.0 BGM: 8.5 ISP: 5.3 JFK: 5.0 ABE: 11.0 MDT: 14.0 PHL: 8.5 ACY: 2.0 EWR: 10.3 BWI: 7.5 IAD: 5.0 DCA: 3.8 SBY: 2.0 RIC: 2.3 ORF: 0.5 RDU: 0.0 Bonus: SYR 6.3 ROC 5.8 BUF 2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: My Forecast Contest #s: CAR: 9 BGR: 4.5 PWM: 8.8 CON: 7.0 BTV: 4.5 BOS: 5.0 HYA: 1.5 ORH: 9.0 PVD: 4.5 BDR: 9.0 BDL: 7.5 ALB: 6.0 BGM: 38.5 ISP: 5.3 JFK: 5.0 ABE: 11.0 MDT: 14.0 PHL: 8.5 ACY: 2.0 EWR: 10.3 BWI: 7.5 IAD: 5.0 DCA: 3.8 SBY: 2.0 RIC: 2.3 ORF: 0.5 RDU: 0.0 Bonus: SYR 6.3 ROC 5.8 BUF 2.0 Corrected BGM... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CAR: 11 BGR: 8 PWM: 9 CON: 14 BTV: 4 BOS: 8 HYA: 4 ORH: 12 PVD: 8 BDR: 10 BDL: 9 ALB: 7 BGM: 14 ISP: 2 JFK: 9 ABE: 14 MDT: 12 PHL: 13 ACY: 6 EWR: 6 BWI: 7 IAD: 4 DCA: 5 SBY: 2 RIC: 2 ORF: 1 RDU: 0 SYR - 5 ROC - 3 BUF - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: My Forecast Contest #s: CAR: 9 BGR: 4.5 PWM: 8.8 CON: 7.0 BTV: 4.5 BOS: 5.0 HYA: 1.5 ORH: 9.0 PVD: 4.5 BDR: 9.0 BDL: 7.5 ALB: 6.0 BGM: 8.5 ISP: 5.3 JFK: 5.0 ABE: 11.0 MDT: 14.0 PHL: 8.5 ACY: 2.0 EWR: 10.3 BWI: 7.5 IAD: 5.0 DCA: 3.8 SBY: 2.0 RIC: 2.3 ORF: 0.5 RDU: 0.0 Bonus: SYR 6.3 ROC 5.8 BUF 2.0 A very reserved gentleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Corrected BGM... Seems underdone. I'm only half joking, CCB will sit and rot overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: CAR: 11 BGR: 8 PWM: 9 CON: 14 BTV: 4 BOS: 8 HYA: 4 ORH: 12 PVD: 8 BDR: 10 BDL: 9 ALB: 7 BGM: 14 ISP: 2 JFK: 9 ABE: 14 MDT: 12 PHL: 13 ACY: 6 EWR: 6 BWI: 7 IAD: 4 DCA: 5 SBY: 2 RIC: 2 ORF: 1 RDU: 0 SYR - 5 ROC - 3 BUF - 3 Delta! Not feeling it, huh? I like the set up but it looks a mess with that transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 In this contest I play on, the lake effect cities in NY aren't included based on discussions about a decade or more ago. Reasoning is that the forecast is for synoptic storms and it becomes difficult to separate out what part of a verified report is synoptic snow vs lake effect in daily reports. So KSYR, KROC, KBUF are not included. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Delta! Not feeling it, huh? I like the set up but it looks a mess with that transition It feels just like December 16. The precip shield will make a nice run up this way but just run out of juice on our doorstep. Then the secondary will strip it all way, only to throw it all back but it won't get past Syracuse. Same as it ever was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The farther south this gets going the better. I like seeing the warnings in North Carolina. The primary looks to be almost digging into apps. Causing the ridge to build in atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, vortmax said: Yes, here: Lol! After someone brings Dave his beer and maps, can you please bring me a thick towel, moist towelette, and sanitizer shower before I throw up in my mouth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Lol! After someone brings Dave his beer and maps, can you please bring me a thick towel, moist towelette, and sanitizer shower before I throw up in my mouth? Thought it was very appropriate for dave when I posted it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: It feels just like December 16. The precip shield will make a nice run up this way but just run out of juice on our doorstep. Then the secondary will strip it all way, only to throw it all back but it won't get past Syracuse. Same as it ever was. We'll see, I'm not overly optimistic but neither was I then, the rest was literally history. After living in the city for almost 30 years I know the drill all too well. I'll accept what looks to be a 6" storm but wouldn't be surprised by much much more. Half the excitment is the tracking but the real glory is cashing in when guidance disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: A very reserved gentleman. Well, in trying to win these contests, I've generally found that taking the under is usually a good plan. And it's really hard to see where banding will occur, esp this far out. On the Canadian there is a banding signature in the MDT, PHL, BWI area. That is a wild card if it materialized. If I go with it and it is wrong, I have a large error and pretty much blows me up. And I could be too high in the NYC area up to BOS if the coastal front is strong and pushes inland quickly. OTOH, if the op Euro is right, I'm too low there as it puts out 2x what I have in and around SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Thought it was very appropriate for dave when I posted it. Thanks for the visual Tim. Really helpful. *gag* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rgem FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Absolute porn in SE PA. Major shaft here. RGEM is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon bumping west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Rgem FWIW No mention of the 5' in SE PA? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Absolute porn in SE PA. Major shaft here. RGEM is gone. That's out already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: No mention of the 5' in SE PA? Lol That forum just epically exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem FWIW 55.8"...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Still snowing on south shore at 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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