Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Great run for Rochester. Even BUF gets into it. 

Thanks

That's what I was hoping for lol Wrap around is the only chance I got..

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Thanks

That's what I was hoping for lol Wrap around is the only chance I got..

I think this is the difference between the ensemble camps. One goes OTS. The preferred one gets stopped up and hugs the coast of Maine

[Syrmax]

SNE and LI better hope the Euro is right cuz GEM and GFS have a lot of coastal rain developing, which I could see with the usual Coastal front they contend with down into NJ.

[tim123]

Looks like original idea from early in week

[Greensnow]

Spilt time between here and the PA forum as I am in Waverly north of Scranton. My backyard is closer temp and forecast to BGM then AVP. Agree that this is going NW. I learned a valuable lesson in December had a foot but was expecting 24” and BGM got 40”. All good but I thin the 88 corridor is going to get smoked. Seasonal trends. Hey- yesterday I was thinking 4”. 

[SyracuseStorm]

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Looks like original idea from early in week

Exactly!  Let’s hope for another couple ticks NW with the 00z suites

[rochesterdave]

7 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

Spilt time between here and the PA forum as I am in Waverly north of Scranton. My backyard is closer temp and forecast to BGM then AVP. Agree that this is going NW. I learned a valuable lesson in December had a foot but was expecting 24” and BGM got 40”. All good but I thin the 88 corridor is going to get smoked. Seasonal trends. Hey- yesterday I was thinking 4”. 

I spent my summers in Fleetville. My heart is still there!

[rochesterdave]

I can’t take anything away from the 18z run. But it is a long way off. Most our snow comes at 60-90. 

[tim123]

Seen it time and again models pick up on a idea then loose it in mid range only to come back

[tim123]

850s seem marginal for lake enhanced. Looked earlier and when ccb is over us its like 10 11 below c. 

[BGM Blizzard]

18z EPS mean precip is looking a little NW of 12z thru H48.

[tim123]

But then again if you have a seeder overhead and a north wind with upslope component yeah maybe 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I can’t take anything away from the 18z run. But it is a long way off. Most our snow comes at 60-90. 

This is basically a Tuesday event for us so tomorrow's runs will confirm/deny this latest model trend. KBGM AND KBUF have basically tomorrow to figure this out.

[96blizz]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Seen it time and again models pick up on a idea then loose it in mid range only to come back

I posted this last year but worth posting again. I’m MesoBanding on other forums and wish I could change it here. 
 

“A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm

As we step into the morning of a nice snowfall for many, I thought I’d recap the phases we all just went through in an effort to remind ourselves how these play out. Every. Single. Time. But like watching your favorite comedy or horror movie – you’ll still laugh or cringe with each step along the way. We can’t help ourselves. 

It’s in our DNA.

Phase 1: The Long Range.

It has to originate somewhere, right? Usually someone will post a long range fantasy map of the GFS that shows a raging blizzard. You’ll see words like BECS, HECS, MECS and SECS thrown around at 360 hour maps. Deep down, we all know the odds of verification are less than the odds that some of you won’t be in your mom’s basement on Friday night – but yet you still believe. You just know this is the one time the globals sniffed something out that, via the Butterfly Effect, is likely a ripple in the atmosphere picked up by two eskimos humping in Siberia to keep warm. We track.

Phase 2: The King Phase.

Once we get to 240 hours, invariably there will be an 0z run when most of you are sleeping when the Euro, The King, spits out a solution like the above for the same eskimo humping ripple. But now we’re inside 10 days AND it’s the almighty Euro. THIS is it. THIS is the one that’s going to go 10 straight days without moving. But guess what asshats – it’s not a cutter – so it’s going to move 1,323 times before it gets here, if it ever does. We track harder.

Phase 3: The Long-ish Range Phase.

Somehow, someway – ALL of the models have shown the storm as a bomb at some point by about 180 hours. We’re getting closer. But we’re not. Not at all. But some knucklehead posts a CMC map that shows 54” of snow as a maxima and weenie’s weenies (or weenie-ets) are moving involuntarily. The GFS follows with a bomb a cycle or two later and some have full fledged boners (and even ‘jokingly’ post about it). The Euro, however, has refused to show the bomb it showed at 240 and stays nauseatingly off shore but close enough to know it will find its way back. Then – at just about 150 hours, the Euro decides it sees the storm again at 0z on a Tuesday night. The late night coverage was minimal, but by morning you have to sift through 345 pages of verifications that, indeed, the King showed our bomb. We rejoice. We track. We set ourselves up invariably for…

Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range

This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until…

Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends

Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s sh*t. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight….

Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks

You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!

But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it.

So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time.

Cheers,

Steve (MesoBanding/Blizz96)”

[96blizz]

18z EPS. 

[Syrmax]

My brother in NJ is decidedly reserved on this one. "I'll believe it when I see it..."

[tim123]

2 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

I posted this last year but worth posting again. I’m MesoBanding on other forums and wish I could change it here. 
 

“A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm

As we step into the morning of a nice snowfall for many, I thought I’d recap the phases we all just went through in an effort to remind ourselves how these play out. Every. Single. Time. But like watching your favorite comedy or horror movie – you’ll still laugh or cringe with each step along the way. We can’t help ourselves. 

It’s in our DNA.

Phase 1: The Long Range.

It has to originate somewhere, right? Usually someone will post a long range fantasy map of the GFS that shows a raging blizzard. You’ll see words like BECS, HECS, MECS and SECS thrown around at 360 hour maps. Deep down, we all know the odds of verification are less than the odds that some of you won’t be in your mom’s basement on Friday night – but yet you still believe. You just know this is the one time the globals sniffed something out that, via the Butterfly Effect, is likely a ripple in the atmosphere picked up by two eskimos humping in Siberia to keep warm. We track.

Phase 2: The King Phase.

Once we get to 240 hours, invariably there will be an 0z run when most of you are sleeping when the Euro, The King, spits out a solution like the above for the same eskimo humping ripple. But now we’re inside 10 days AND it’s the almighty Euro. THIS is it. THIS is the one that’s going to go 10 straight days without moving. But guess what asshats – it’s not a cutter – so it’s going to move 1,323 times before it gets here, if it ever does. We track harder.

Phase 3: The Long-ish Range Phase.

Somehow, someway – ALL of the models have shown the storm as a bomb at some point by about 180 hours. We’re getting closer. But we’re not. Not at all. But some knucklehead posts a CMC map that shows 54” of snow as a maxima and weenie’s weenies (or weenie-ets) are moving involuntarily. The GFS follows with a bomb a cycle or two later and some have full fledged boners (and even ‘jokingly’ post about it). The Euro, however, has refused to show the bomb it showed at 240 and stays nauseatingly off shore but close enough to know it will find its way back. Then – at just about 150 hours, the Euro decides it sees the storm again at 0z on a Tuesday night. The late night coverage was minimal, but by morning you have to sift through 345 pages of verifications that, indeed, the King showed our bomb. We rejoice. We track. We set ourselves up invariably for…

Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range

This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until…

Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends

Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s sh*t. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight….

Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks

You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that!

But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it.

So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time.

Cheers,

Steve (MesoBanding/Blizz96)”

You got it down to a t.

[wolfie09]

I'll wait for the SR models to get into range before worrying about wrap around or any enhancement along the south shore.. Just wanna see that low tucked.. Precipitation is the hardest thing for the models to figure out...

[tim123]

4 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

18z EPS. 

Members?

[BGM Blizzard]

18z EPS mean is very consistent with 12z, no sizeable shift.

[rochesterdave]

6 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

18z EPS. 

Can you post the 12z for comparison?

[96blizz]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Members?

 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Can you post the 12z for comparison?

Geeziz H, do you guys want him to bring you a beer alao? Maybe wash and wax the vehicle?

[TugHillMatt]

17 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Exactly!  Let’s hope for another couple ticks NW with the 00z suites

I would prefer it more north than west. That would put us more in the solid band and moisture stream.

[rochesterdave]

Here’s a different view

[tim123]

Think it bumped up roc from .48 to.56 precip on the mean

[rochesterdave]

Just now, Syrmax said:

Geeziz H, do you want him to bring you a beer alao? Maybe wash and wax the vehicle?

A bj be nice too

[tim123]

Dave you need a companion other than mother nature

[tim123]

Look at 500 mb on rgem. Wow. Talk about a capture.

[tim123]

Sref mean up to 9 for roc. Still a huge spread. From. 0 to 22 inches. But a nice cluster from 5 to 10