wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/29/2021 at 1:51 PM, wolfie09 said: We are 250-300 miles away from anything decent on the European, that's a hell of a lot to ask with a few days left lol This didn't age well 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREFs will keep the NW party going... Keep in mind there could be more after 87 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, 96blizz said: SREFs will keep the NW party going... Keep in mind there could be more after 87 here... .3 to .5 liquid equivalent in 26 degree weather is not 10 to 1 ratios that would put KBUF at 5 or 6 inches in this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s amazing. Like two different storms here. The one shows everything staying south of the PA border. The other shows big snow getting all the way to Buffalo. Very few in betweeners! What gives!?!? Maybe the energy is sufficiently on board the west coast and modeling is trying to resolve it's progress with that of the big fat HP to the NW. And it's a other dying primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Seeing those members makes me think there is room for this to come a bit more nw. And ofcoure could be se. But trending more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: .3 to .5 liquid equivalent in 26 degree weather is not 10 to 1 ratios that would put KBUF at 5 or 6 inches in this scenario All depends on snow growth. Ccb snow is usually higher than 10 to 1. 12 to 1 even up to 18 to 1 if you have intense lift. But 12 to 1 is probally safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: .3 to .5 liquid equivalent in 26 degree weather is not 10 to 1 ratios that would put KBUF at 5 or 6 inches in this scenario Well done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Was just gonna say sref plumes have a mean of 7 in roc but the spread is nothing to 22 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wonder if there will be a inverted trough from jersey to lake ontario. Starting to get that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Well done. This looks like Climo for many medium to larger east coast storms, in terms of relative snowfall distributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looking at plumes the area with the highest average with the biggest upside is pen yan ithica Elmira. Some of those outliers have 35 inches with average of about 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just a word about lake snow we just had roc got 6 total from event. With .14 liquid. Thats 44 to 1 ratios. Goes to show ya don't need much qpf for decent snow. Thursday night screwed us would of have doubled if got a better lake response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It’ll be a little heart breaking if it goes back the other way. We don’t have long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still got 2 days of model watching Dave. Ride the coaster hopefully we can continue trend of winter to our benifit for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’ll be a little heart breaking if it goes back the other way. We don’t have long... It shouldn’t be- no model is gonna nail it- NAM similar to 12z so far- we want a trend then blend the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nws in buffalo did mention this trend of winter and not to let guard down a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 A vertically stacked low will be near Ohio on Sunday night, with a diffluent flow aloft and mid level warm air advection from this system producing snow which should at least reach the Western Southern Tier. A surface low developing off the mid-Atlantic coast will take over late Sunday night and Monday. A consensus track similar to the SREF places our region along the northern fringe of the precipitation from this system. But there is a wide spread in model guidance, with challenges in the track of the system, and how quickly the coastal low takes over. 12Z model consensus is slightly north compared to previous runs, but even so the RGEM nearly keeps the area dry through Monday. The most likely scenario drops 2-4 inches of snow across the Western Southern Tier, with amounts tapering down to less than an inch from Buffalo to Rochester northward. A more northerly track could support Winter Weather Advisory headlines for the Western Southern Tier. At least there will not be any precipitation type issues, with thermal profiles plenty cold and moist enough to support all snow. High pressure across Quebec will ridge into the North Country Sunday evening, which will provide good radiational cooling conditions. Went much colder than guidance for Sunday night, with some below zero readings likely. It will be chilly on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 20s in a brisk northeasterly flow. The storm will rapidly intensify off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday night before moving northward to near Cape Cod on Tuesday. There will be a break in the action Monday night as the low wraps up along the coast. However eventually moisture will wrap around the upper low providing an increasingly moist flow across eastern portions of the forecast area. The 12Z ECMWF/RGEM are now notably more aggressive bringing snow back into the area east of Rochester Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is likely to produce some accumulating snows east and southeast of Lake Ontario, with amounts depending on the track of the upper low. Elsewhere, just expect a persistent northwesterly breeze with generally cold weather and scattered snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM took a step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: NAM took a step back The NAM ALWAYS has to be off on its own...it's a little rebel child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 BGM posted first outlook maps: For some reason, it won't let me post the "most likely" one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: NAM took a step back That actually makes sense. It was trying to begin where the globals did 4 or 5 days ago and is correcting itself...I believe it will be the one slowest to catch on to any shifts or changes in the track...globals are on to it though let’s hope it’s enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: BGM posted first outlook maps: That’s a massive difference 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nam waffles alot at longer range. Looks like it wants to chase convection again with low. Not overly worried about nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s a massive difference I actually posted the "expected" which is NOT that one. It's strange...when I paste it, it's the new map...but then when I "Submit" it converts it to this morning's snow map. Must still have the old link connected to the image? Not sure how all that works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM is almost always the most aggressive NW scenario. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I have noticed for some reason the nam does play catch up to globals in its longer range. Say after 60 hours. But always on the table for a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That actually makes sense. It was trying to begin where the globals did 4 or 5 days ago and is correcting itself...I believe it will be the one slowest to catch on to any shifts or changes in the track...globals are on to it though let’s hope it’s enough Bingo I feel the NAM is always in catch-up mode, like a day behind lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3k NAM actually looks better than 12 k. Which is super unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, this would be ultimate F-U to all of us lakeshore weenies... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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