TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 So, is any precip going to move due east like the models were showing, or are we stuck watching it continue to reform over the S. Tug and North Country? That's been another standard with these dying synoptic systems this season. The echoes move all over the place in different random directions...and you sit here wondering which one is going to hit you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just some figures from last lake event. Roc recieved .28 liquid and recieved 7.4 inches. Thats about 25 to 1 ratio. I have seen higher than that in tea kettle set ups. 30 to 1 or more. Pure air. Can literally blow off 3 or 4 inches from car. It can also be 0 out and any sun at all it evaporates. Doesn't melt just sublimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Just some figures from last lake event. Roc recieved .28 liquid and recieved 7.4 inches. Thats about 25 to 1 ratio. I have seen higher than that in tea kettle set ups. 30 to 1 or more. Pure air. Can literally blow off 3 or 4 inches from car. Use your leaf blower instead of a shovel, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 You literally can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I remember tea kettle snow more years ago. Been awhile since had a good one. You can get 3 to 5 inches within 10 miles from shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: It went from whiffing us to the south to just about whiffing us to the north. lol Next time a system comes into WPA/WNY, where there isn't any strong support for coastal redevelopment, remember this system...models just don't do well with this scenario, for whatever reason... ...perhaps a research project could tease out the reason(s), and help future modeling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Use your leaf blower instead of a shovel, lol. For sure! I worked a job for a while that involved cleaning snow off cars and around them in the resident parking lot. The leaf blower made the job so much easier for the fluff events...as long as the wind wasn't blowing! 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Next time a system comes into WPA/WNY, where there isn't any strong support for coastal redevelopment, remember this system...models just don't do well with this scenario, for whatever reason... ...perhaps a research project could tease out the reason(s), and help future modeling. For sure. You were right on with your call. I sensed it might be a "bust" as I observed reports of the dry slots out in the midwest and watched the precip zooming northward. It went even farther north than my pessimistic call! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Congrats Ogdensburg, lol, what a joke! I wouldn't call it a bust as my area got anywhere between 3-5" but with all the blowing and drifting an accurate measurement is just impossible to obtain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Temps are in the mid 30s across the Southern Finger Lakes, with 35 in Elmira and 36 in Dansville. 10 degrees colder here not too far away. Crazy how this disorganized Low pushed so well against the High Pressure. These sure are different days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 We definitely got 3" thats for sure so the snow that fell must have been damn heavy but I was in Utica so I really dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: We definitely got 3" thats for sure so the snow that fell must have been damn heavy but I was in Utica so I really dont know. It dumped for a couple hours during the early afternoon...most of us in this area picked up about 4 or so inches during that. Then the dreaded dry slot moved through, and since then, it's been snow showery with sleet and grainy snow mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not really a bust..Nws nailed it at 3-5/3-6.. I'm sure some areas busted on either side.. Two nearest reporting stations reported 4.5"-5.5" respectively..On and off snow showers.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I had 4.2 inches as of 5 PM and the on and off snow showers since then has me pushing 5 inches which is within my expectations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) NEW YORK ...Broome County... Binghamton 2.2 645 PM 1/26 Official NWS Obs Endwell 2.0 300 PM 1/26 NWS Employee 3 SE Chenango Forks 1.9 245 PM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Nineveh 1.7 350 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter 2 S Vestal 1.0 1100 AM 1/26 NWS Employee ...Cayuga County... 1 WNW Levanna 1.7 1210 PM 1/26 sleet mixed in ...Chemung County... Elmira 1.0 220 PM 1/26 Mixed with sleet ...Madison County... Oneida 4.0 425 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter Chittenango 3.0 701 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter ...Oneida County... Lee 6.0 540 PM 1/26 Social Media Holland Patent 4.0 502 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter Whitesboro 4.0 453 PM 1/26 Social Media Utica 3.8 530 PM 1/26 Social Media Paris 3.2 553 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter Deerfield 3.0 357 PM 1/26 Social Media ...Onondaga County... Brewerton 4.2 500 PM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Marcellus 3.5 312 PM 1/26 Social Media Baldwinsville 3.0 347 PM 1/26 Broadcast Media Syracuse 2.6 500 PM 1/26 Local Official ...Otsego County... Unadilla 3.3 400 PM 1/26 Elevation 1500` Oneonta 3.0 630 PM 1/26 Elevation 1440` ...Sullivan County... 3 NE North Branch 2.0 550 PM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Tioga County... Tioga Terrace 2.5 335 PM 1/26 Trained Spotter Apalachin 1.5 230 PM 1/26 raining now ...Tompkins County... Newfield 0.9 430 PM 1/26 Elevation 1850` The 4.2 inches at Brewerton is my measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 As soon as the 850LP moves to our East we will see some more enhanced snshwr's which should drop another 1-3" as the West end of the Lake looks primed and ready to go so we'll see later tonight. Its never a good thing when the 850LP is directly overhead like it is but once it passes, its game on once again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Then once those -20C temps start to cross the 40 degree Lake, we should see some nice squalls the rest of the week so at least we're seeing some snow, lol, and not what we experienced in December! This should be interesting come Thurs-Fri-Sat as thats a serious through that drops into the Northeast! If that doesn't get LO going then nothing will, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: As soon as the 850LP moves to our East we will see some more enhanced snshwr's which should drop another 1-3" as the West end of the Lake looks primed and ready to go so we'll see later tonight. Its never a good thing when the 850LP is directly overhead like it is but once it passes, its game on once again! Here’s some nice roll convection setting up in the wake of that 850, albeit on a much longer fetch. Still bodes well for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Was perusing the Central PA sub and saw this beauty of a clown map. Lock it in for 7 days????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I just measured and melted it. 4.5" snow and 0.43" liquid. So that's right about 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yeah, things can get interesting once it passes for sure so don't be surprised if you wake up to a few to several more fluffy inches to add to the building glacier! 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I just measured and melted it. 4.5" snow and 0.43" liquid. So that's right about 10:1. Interesting as it seemed alot more fluffy to me! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This event is definitely not through dropping snow I can guarantee that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still holding onto some steady snow, small flakes, accumulating slowly but nonetheless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not sure who measured in Bville, but we definitely got more than 3 inches. Whatever..not a big deal. The New England crew has 40 pages just for today's system! It's been a bad winter... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Not sure who measured in Bville, but we definitely got more than 3 inches. Whatever..not a big deal. The New England crew has 40 pages just for today's system! It's been a bad winter... lol For sure- I shoveled this evening and eye balled 4-5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: For sure- I shoveled this evening and eye balled 4-5” I love having another person who lives close by to discuss the local weather...it's refreshing having another weather weenie in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, things can get interesting once it passes for sure so don't be surprised if you wake up to a few to several more fluffy inches to add to the building glacier! Interesting as it seemed alot more fluffy to me! I snowblowed and I could tell it was heavier than standard lake effect. Not "wet" but not lake fluff... So 10 or 11 :1 makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Was perusing the Central PA sub and saw this beauty of a clown map. Lock it in for 7 days????? Now that is the King of Clowns! Ridiculous that a model can be THIS wrong less than a week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 00Z runs starting to show the multi-band NW look for the remainder of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Still looking good for 6 to 12 from Thursday into Friday. For monroe wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon. Kinda impressive on a global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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