BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lots of moisture with this storm, too bad it gets slightly shredded could have been a biggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z EPS mean qpf for the early week storm. Definitely has potential to deliver the goods for a large swath of upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Got 18z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got 18z euro 3” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got 18z euro Found this on NYC forum: Would be around 4 inches for Rochester and 5 or 6 for Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Cutting it close with that dry slot on the HRRR..Still it's LR but a bunch of GEFS members had a similar scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 41 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got 18z euro 10:1 Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I get nervous seeing the dry slot so close....they ALWAYS come north more than forecasted...such a pain. Checking obs out in the midwest, Iowa to Illinois are having issues with dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00Z NAM is looking better and farther south...but also looks a bit goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 00Z NAM is looking better and farther south...but also looks a bit goofy. NAM jackpots me. Goofy or not lets see it verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM jackpots me. Goofy or not lets see it verify. Can you upload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Would be a great storm for Rochester if it was: A. 50 miles south B. Not decaying Still could surprise but I suspect a couple/few inches will do it. 3” Syracuse 4” East 5-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Can you upload? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, PerintonMan said: lol, that's a forecast of 85-110" (basically 7-9 feet) of snow over 48 hours. Roc's yearly snowfall (on a good year) in two days. And great point BW, November 2014 is one of the most impressive snow events anywhere in North America IMO. Accurate measurements were truly impossible in the heaviest bands, I think places made a run at 100" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Would be a great storm for Rochester if it was: A. 50 miles south B. Not decaying Still could surprise but I suspect a couple/few inches will do it. 3” Syracuse 4” East 5-6” I like 4 inches in ROC (6 inches if the stars align and we eek out some enhancement on the backend). We stay below freezing from the surface all the way up so hopefully zero mixing. Kind of sucks this storm hits during peak diurnal warming, so that might eat up an inch. On the other hand, daytime storms are nice because you get to watch every flake fall (if you so choose), plus it has the highest impact on society which is always a fun aspect to storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I like 4 inches in ROC (6 inches if the stars align and we eek out some enhancement on the backend). We stay below freezing from the surface all the way up so hopefully zero mixing. Kind of sucks this storm hits during peak diurnal warming, so that might eat up an inch. On the other hand, daytime storms are nice because you get to watch every flake fall (if you so choose), plus it has the highest impact on society which is always an fun aspect to storms. You would’ve loved Snow Ridge. They had 40” in prior week. On the road headed in, the town had used tree branches with tape as plow markers. Had about 3’ of pack. I’ll bet they have 4’ way up on the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Pretty dramatic turn in some places these last couple of weeks! I miss the days of having huge piles along my street from the plows. It's been a couple years now. Did you ski Snow Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: 3” Pretty sure I can find a model that gives you Nipski! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This may be bad Karma but...I couldn't resist... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The Weenie Zone will take this, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This may be bad Karma but...I couldn't resist... You're such a tease... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 RGEM similar just a bit drier than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Here is the weenies weenie map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This may be bad Karma but...I couldn't resist... That is F’n hysterical! You could not make that map up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Seems sort of stupid for BGM to include so many counties in the same advisory. Onondaga and Madison are not looking at ice, so why make it confusing and include us in an advisory discussing ice in southern counties? Most models are showing us in the 5 inch range at a minimum. I actually find it humorous how often they overlook Syracuse, as it has a fairly large population. They rarely discuss weather for here and breeze right by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Rgem through 84 just as artic push comes in. Shows storm snow. Minor break then a period of lake snow monroe wayne County. The at end of run the artic push and renewed lake snow starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Been consistent is really liking eastern monroe western wayne counties. Ukmet has been showing this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Rgem through 84 just as artic push comes in. Shows storm snow. Minor break then a period of lake snow monroe wayne County. The at end of run the artic push and renewed lake snow starting. I looked more closely at the Thursday Friday timeframe and there is actually a little more meat on that bone than I realized. Still no slam dunk...but something to keep an eye on for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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