wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice jump north on the Canadian.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Canadian looks great for roc area fri sat. Gives .4 to .6 precip. Verbatim would be 8 to 12. With 20 to 1 ratios. Nws did say thats what there ratios would be so potential is there for it to add up quick. Not a bad set up. That’s what we need. The kink in the isobars is a nice addition. As always, we’ll be fighting the dry but the lake has still gotta be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 European has some company.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS 12z came further north and is actually now the outlier at this moment. The trend is our friend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Plenty cold too but not crazy cold which is good lol Still 4-5 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is close but too far south still It appears it’s in its own and we’re now approaching 4 days out...starting to get close enough to think the Canook, Euro and the Royal (Ukmet) are all on to the track. GFS will get there. One thing you can always count on is the GFS to sniff out the storm, then pivot several times only to come back to what it once showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European has some company.. Look at UKIE picking up on Ontario enhancement. These are great tracks for the thruway communities. Could Rochester get lucky finally? Will I have to mail an apology letter to BufWeather for dismissing his January excitement? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Look at UKIE picking up on Ontario enhancement. These are great tracks for the thruway communities. Could Rochester get lucky finally? Will I have to mail an apology letter to BufWeather for dismissing his January excitement? Lol Full run to 144 of UKIE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 This has the makings of the 90 and north system. IF fruition these can be a sneaky foot of snow south of Lake Ontario 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS unusually impressed with east of Ontario tonight through Saturday morning. Big time totals on the tug. I’ll be at Snow Ridge and Brantingham- so on the near the tug. Snow Ridge’s vertical is the eastern drop off of the Tug, do you’re not really ‘on’ it. And Brantingham is in the western foothills of the ADK’s. Lowville is in the valley, between the two and receives MUCH less snow than either. Whetstone park is just NW of Snow Ridge and is truly on the Tug. It’s one of the only accessible areas from the east side. Last March I went there and they had 2.5 feet of pack. Lowville had about 4”. 15 miles apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Look at UKIE picking up on Ontario enhancement. These are great tracks for the thruway communities. Could Rochester get lucky finally? Will I have to mail an apology letter to BufWeather for dismissing his January excitement? Lol Looks like the GTA are the winners with the enhancement shown by the Royal family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Meant to post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: Looks like the GTA are the winners with the enhancement shown by the Royal family. I was wondering if that would catch on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Might be stuck in the transition zone here tomorrow. Hopefully the band is farther north than it often is shown on models. But, it it's straight NW winds, we usually get on the outer edge. No. Onondaga transition zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: This has the makings of the 90 and north system. IF fruition these can be a sneaky foot of snow south of Lake Ontario I’m thinking I love it! These always deliver. Long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European has some company.. It's coming... might come too far north for some. UK nailed the mid December storm too so I'll give it weight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro looks a little south from last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Euro looks a little south from last nights run. Yeah Euro is squashed. Not ideal but not worried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Still makes it pretty far north but weakens as the secondary takes over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 A little run to run movement is bound to happen as the ensembles show different LP placements in the clustering. The GFS went way south in one run and is slowly correcting itself back north. I actually just caught one of the Mets on TWC and he was actually discussing this very storm for next week and showed both models...he stated the Euro is giving them more confidence at this time over the GFS because of the run to run consistency. As long as the ensembles don’t drastically change we should be looking at some kind of an event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Gets put into the shredder as it heads east. The farther west you are the better I think with this storm. The NE forum was praying for -NAO for years and years and they finally get it and its blocked every storm the last 6 weeks there. Blocking isn't the end all be all with winter storms. A lot needs to come together for it to work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: A little run to run movement is bound to happen as the ensembles show different LP placements in the clustering. The GFS went way south in one run and is slowly correcting itself back north. I actually just caught one of the Mets on TWC and he was actually discussing this very storm for next week and showed both models...he stated the Euro is giving them more confidence at this time over the GFS because of the run to run consistency. As long as the ensembles don’t drastically change we should be looking at some kind of an event. The GEFS is pretty far south too. I highly favor suppression over amped. In 2 weeks I favor amped though, think we get into a more cutter pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The follow up storm is fairly similar.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I recall a storm or two with similar snowfall distribution...where Chicago gets a dump and on east. Doesn't happen every winter but not unprecedented by any means. Need kind of a bowling ball moving more easterly than northerly obviously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The follow up storm is fairly similar.. We're take it. May not get a blockbuster this season but maybe several moderate events to at least claw our way back to respectability. Rebuilding season...again? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 EPS look pretty close to OP run, maybe a tiny bit more north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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