BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Overnight snow: Picked up 2.4" here. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z NAM through 54hr...much different than 12z RDPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us. We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us. We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right. Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs Agree. This has every shot to come north. We need to see some stability in the solutions which wont happen until day 5 earliest. Lets see if this gets support from the euro in the next couple of days and go from there. Encouraging look as far as i am concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs I know we’re still in the range where we shouldn’t be taking this model as gospel but it still amazes me that it goes from a cutter over Green Bay to a surpressed low over Wheeling, WV in basically one run. Where will it be tomorrow, probably over Atlanta. Or maybe it will disappear, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Overnight snow: Picked up 2.4" here. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Baglini on WIVB wants NOTHING to do with LES in metro north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I’m pretty sure we’re all looking at a very sharp cutoff to the better snows over the next couple weeks. Model trends are not our friends right now and unless you live in higher terrain in the favorable spots then I’m guessing you’ll be seeing more grass than snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca! Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Warning issued for Oswego county as well.. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Can't trust the euro at face value but it has two "westerly" events during the week, 260-280 vector or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Warning issued for Oswego county as well.. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. If that lines up the cutoff would be about 2 miles south of my house...yeah that’s about right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Suppression city on the euro.. Could be another impending dry spell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Suppression city on the euro.. Could be another impending dry spell lol It’s the low over Colorado we have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It’s the low over Colorado we have to watch. He's comparing to the same LP of the GFS at the 192 run hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 About 10” of new snow in Sardinia (far southern Erie County). Nothing fell during my hike (9-1), little over 12” OTG there. We had maybe 0.5” last night IMBY, enough to whiten things up until the temp climbed over freezing again and now back to all green. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca! Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward. I still don’t see what they see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: About 10” of new snow in Sardinia (far southern Erie County). Nothing fell during my hike (9-1), little over 12” OTG there. We had maybe 0.5” last night IMBY, enough to whiten things up until the temp climbed over freezing again and now back to all green. Went to knox farm in EA and they had about 3-4" there. Was snowing the entire time, such a beautiful walk. My dogs favorite place in all of Buffalo is that dog park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Went to knox farm in EA and they had about 3-4" there. Was snowing the entire time, such a beautiful walk. My dogs favorite place in all of Buffalo is that dog park. Definitely a beautiful place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18z NAM still has nothing for S Shore (<1")...18z RDPS backing off some (~6-7")... yet BUF upped their map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 PV is in Siberia, and has been there the last few winters. Extreme cold sends temperatures plummeting to 73 below zero in Siberia https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/extreme-cold-sends-temperatures-plummeting-to-73-below-zero-in-siberia/883874 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: PV is in Siberia, and has been there the last few winters. Extreme cold sends temperatures plummeting to 73 below zero in Siberia https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/extreme-cold-sends-temperatures-plummeting-to-73-below-zero-in-siberia/883874 Road trip? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks like a meso low forming over niagara. Looks intense. Headed just north of Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Road trip? Amazingly that’s a 173 degree temp swing in less than 6 months! They went over 100 got the first time ever this summer and now they’re 173 degrees colder...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like a meso low forming over niagara. Looks intense. Headed just north of Buffalo Yeah I’m wondering if this might cover my grass for the first time in 2021! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, vortmax said: 18z NAM still has nothing for S Shore (<1")...18z RDPS backing off some (~6-7")... yet BUF upped their map: Yeah they did the same thing they do every event lol They put the High end as the expected.. Except for east of Ontario of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Road trip? ONE WAY road trip for me? Maybe that'll fix the winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 You go tug and the cold switches sides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, tim123 said: You go tug and the cold switches sides. Yep! I think Siberia will be able to handle my hotness and still be cold enough to snow. I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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