Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 AFD is interesting. Using the Canadian as model of choice for tonight. An odd forecast as they call for 3-5 tonight and tomorrow (6-10) for the south towns into metro Buffalo and slightly less totals for the remainder of Erie county. This almost sounds lake enhanced more than pure lake effect? BW thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks like I picked up a heavy dusting overnight....maybe 2 light dustings...rates right now are about a half to three-quarters of a dusting per 4 hour. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Looks like I picked up a heavy dusting overnight....maybe 2 light dustings...rates right now are about a half to three-quarters of a dusting per 4 hour. Same thing here...a few more dustings and the grass will be covered. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Tug Hill and Chat. Ridge to the rest of Upstate: "You get a dusting and you get a dusting!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The funny thing is the 2 areas of upstate that receive the most snow both have a woman named Carol who measures each location...conspiracy theorists unite!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The funny thing is the 2 areas of upstate that receive the most snow both have a woman named Carol who measures each location...conspiracy theorists unite!!! Where is the other Carol? I’d be pissed if I was Redfield Carol. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Same thing here...a few more dustings and the grass will be covered. Lol It looks nice at least. I may not of fully valued the ice free sidewalks though. Is .25” enough to trade for super icy everything? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The funny thing is the 2 areas of upstate that receive the most snow both have a woman named Carol who measures each location...conspiracy theorists unite!!! Is her last name Baskin? If so...we're screwed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Where is the other Carol? I’d be pissed if I was Redfield Carol. Lol The Chautauqua ridge in a town called Perrysburg, local legend meteorologist Don Paul used to mention her frequently on air as the most well known spotter in the snowiest place in WNY...laughable that both spots have a Carol who measures snow... maybe Carol is the new Karen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Kinda weird that BUF is big on Lake Erie lake effect and real soft on Ontario lake effect. Models show it too. What’s going on that the Tug won’t cash in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol Why they’d paint Monroe with 4-6, I’ll never know. No model shows that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol I’m not sure either. I also don’t see 3-4” for Niagara Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Looks about right as they are going with the Canadian.. Reg and NH Canadian guidance packages superior to most other available model products and will be leaned on for this portion of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks about right as they are going with the Canadian.. Reg and NH Canadian guidance packages superior to most other available model products and will be leaned on for this portion of the forecast. Yeah but the output on the “Canook” is much lower than the NWS totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Probably working on about an inch lol Continue to receive"steady" snow, 28°.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Rochester to Syracuse... Snow to the north for the past 48 hours...now to the south. LOL Yup, another lovely dusting here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks about right as they are going with the Canadian.. Reg and NH Canadian guidance packages superior to most other available model products and will be leaned on for this portion of the forecast. I'd imagine they should have a swath of 6-8" along N Wayne cty...according to this model. Through 84hr, the RDPS has 11" for this area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, vortmax said: I'd imagine they should have a swath of 6-8" along N Wayne cty...according to this model. Through 84hr, the RDPS has 11" for this area: Now that matches what the NWS is going with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Now that the winds have shifted a bit, it's a steady light now...but the snowflakes are TINY, which is why radar isn't even showing it. Thus, THM forecaster has issued a "Head and Shoulders Warning." Warning in effect until whenever it stops. Please be careful as conditions on your your body, especially shoulders, could change very slowly. Steady snowfall could lead to a dusting. In areas that get under heavier bands, they could get a dusting plus another dusting or two. Please use appropriately certified finger tips to take measurements. Don't even bother sending in measurements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Returns upstream over western lower Michigan have really blossomed over the past 2 hours...could be a sign of things to come tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Now that matches what the NWS is going with Yeah but that's till Thursday afternoon, NWS forecast runs through Wed morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1.6" here, snow starting to"slow" down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 New RGEM through Wednesday early afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: New RGEM through Wednesday afternoon.. I forget what a deep winter LES map looks like. It keeps confusing me- I’m like, “whaaat?” Not used to seeing this distribution. Mostly follows climo snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Rgem through 84.. Good week for the tug on top of what they have already seen and more to come verbatim.. Nothing they can't handle obviously lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Is her last name Baskin? If so...we're screwed. Carol Baskin is pitching penny stocks on her video casts now while Joe Exotic awaits a pardon from hewhoshallnotbenamed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol Is this actually a map for the month of January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Is this actually a map for the month of January? I look at that map and think, "Aww, pretty colors...so when does my next dusting fall?" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I got 1.7 inches of snow for the 24 hour period on 0.35 inch liquid and 1.0 inch of snow overnight. During a normal winter the 0.35 would have translated into around 5 inches of snow but this year it was actually raining for a while yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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