sferic Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 59 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: BGM first call...looks largely reasonable. @sferic you could get 3-4” from this. Not looking for more than 1-2” where I am in Narrowsburg. Yup possibly 6 inches too since its elevation driven and Liberty is over 1,500 feet You'll do fine too, There is still wiggle room to make everyone happy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 So, now that we get closer, the NAM, and especially the Rgem, bail on Central New York. Just running with the theme of this awful winter? Oh, how I wish the Para GFS could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para has a quick paste job sat morning.. Surface 32-33 verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Maybe the possible heavier precipitation rates could overcome BL issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Looks like the secondary is acting as a conveyer belt to the dying primary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Whew...if warm air holds in for synoptic part and winds stay westerly behind it...it's gonna be a tough pill to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It will be close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I would love an event where we didn't have to worry about being right on the edge of warm air, dry slot, rain line. elevation line, convergence zone, outside of snow band, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Striking how many areas didn’t even make the low risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18z Euro looks better for CNY folks compared to 12z. Seems to have picked up on some lake enhanced wrap around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Montreal and Ottawa special... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks like another whiff for ROC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Looks like another whiff for ROC. Entire winter of whiffs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 HRRR doesn’t really develop a coastal secondary. It instead maintains the GL low. Entire different scenario. Would have big impacts on any LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Good timing Wolfie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Hey, maybe we can get an inch or two before it melts later in the day Saturday and we get some scattered snow showers on Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Sref pretty much ride the HV, solid enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: HRRR doesn’t really develop a coastal secondary. It instead maintains the GL low. Entire different scenario. Would have big impacts on any LES. HRRR is a horrible model. That thing was spitting out 6-10” of snow an hour before the event started the other day. We got freezing drizzle and rain all day and an inch of snow overnight. That’s not even close to the first time that model showed that happening either. Toss it right in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: HRRR is a horrible model. That thing was spitting out 6-10” of snow an hour before the event started the other day. We got freezing drizzle and rain all day and an inch of snow overnight. That’s not even close to the first time that model showed that happening either. Toss it right in the trash. NAM does same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Wolfie. Ummmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAM does same thing Appears the Nam is chasing convection out in the Atlantic. Looks very suspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Appears the Nam is chasing convection out in the Atlantic. Looks very suspect. Yeah just like the 3k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 No matter where things end up, there's a common theme around Syracuse... lol (The HRWs show a similar theme. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Hey, wolfie. Your Lake effect model is giving you the goods Sunday and Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: No matter where things end up, there's a common theme around Syracuse... lol (The HRWs show a similar theme. ) It’s almost like a cruel joke the weather Gods are playing and I am not like it. Enough is enough for f***s sake! you can’t make this s**t up anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, SyracuseStorm said: It’s almost like a cruel joke the weather Gods are playing and I am not like it. Enough is enough for f***s sake! For real. The Rgem (I wasn't going to talk about it) has that lake effect band sitting JUST to our north for hours and hours....then it comes south, weakens, and sweeps right through. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For real. The Rgem (I wasn't going to talk about it) has that lake effect band sitting JUST to our north for hours and hours....then it comes south, weakens, and sweeps right through. hahaha Well, let’s hope it meanders down our way and the models aren’t right. Get a band that swings back n forth between northern Onondaga and Wolfie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Well, let’s hope it meanders down our way and the models aren’t right. Get a band that swings back n forth between northern Onondaga and Wolfie How long have you been around here? Have you seen good Lake effect events here in extreme NW Onondaga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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