TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 We've actually had veeeery light graupel and snow showers here the past two days. Several days last week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Jackpot Full 1/2" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 11:21 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: So much for the 2-3” of snow around BUF today. Freezing drizzle... Eh... next? Expand Depth of cold air just wasn't there. It was always marginal, but just not quite cold enough. Also this coming event looks too warm too for anything substantial, and better yet the GFS long range just went way warmer with the -PNA. Todays trends were not good. The cold air is all on the other side of the globe. The PV did split but it went the wrong direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Some hope, but another 10 days out, at least its the EPS not GEFS this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 The only thing that could save this winter is a Feb 2007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Band location was pretty well modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Some decent members in there and yes member 15 is a member.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 11:57 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Some hope, but another 10 days out, at least its the EPS not GEFS this time Expand We’re always “10 days out”. This is how Bill Murray must of felt in GroundHogs Day... But at least he kept getting stuck in a blizzard! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:09 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Band location was pretty well modeled Expand 7:30 update! We have a P type change! Freezing drizzle has change to freezing rain! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Not sure any model had this stuff to my south.. Nothing to heavy but snow nonetheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 11:02 PM, TugHillMatt said: Hmmm...across the subs over the past week, there was chatter about things getting better after 01/20. Checking out the models, STILL looking at rain possible with any synoptic system that comes...all these lame Lows cutting across the Great Lakes with mild air. Better pattern after Chrismas....then first week of January...then January 10th...then Jan. 15th....then January 20th....gee, when have we seen this crap before?? Expand I posted "soon many rains come" the other day, channeling my inner Dances with Wolves reference. Pretty arcane movie reference from 1990, but maybe spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 This is the HRRR hr 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Pretty rare to get in buffalo in the heart of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:46 AM, wolfie09 said: Not sure any model had this stuff to my south.. Nothing to heavy but snow nonetheless.. Expand Had a little burst of snow here over the last hour. Nothing to write home about in a normal winter but my deck is covered with about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Coming down nicely right now, flakes more reminiscent of typical LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 You know how I joked the other day that maybe the models were underdoing the dusting and that maybe I'd get a half inch? Well.....SUCCESS! 1/2 inch of snowfall this evening! Score! lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 12:46 AM, wolfie09 said: Not sure any model had this stuff to my south.. Nothing to heavy but snow nonetheless.. Expand Even snowing all the way out here now. Just a dusting so far but still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Roads here are an absolute disaster. We actually got a pretty good glaze of ice from freezing drizzle and rain all evening and it just switched over to straight snow and it’s coming down pretty good. Already a solid coating on top of all that ice. Glad I don’t have to go anywhere else tonight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 3:22 AM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Roads here are an absolute disaster. We actually got a pretty good glaze of ice from freezing drizzle and rain all evening and it just switched over to straight snow and it’s coming down pretty good. Already a solid coating on top of all that ice. Glad I don’t have to go anywhere else tonight! Expand Wow looks like it. I didn't totally bust on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 3:37 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Wow looks like it. I didn't totally bust on this one. Expand Yeah the cap must’ve lifted enough to allow the snow growth zone to be met as it is also snowing here albeit lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Looks like it snowing pretty good a little to my north.. Adams NY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 3:46 AM, wolfie09 said: Looks like it snowing pretty good a little to my north.. Adams NY Expand Yeah, that's a real band right there in those yellows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 3:41 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Expand NM...it’s snowing moderate and would be almost heavy but flake size is small 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 3:50 AM, Thinksnow18 said: NM...it’s snowing moderate and would be almost heavy but flake size is small Expand Yeah snowing good here for sure. Looks like about half an inch already in less than an hour. Flakes are tiny and the snow is wet and greasy on top of that ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The winter of 20/21.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 GGEM looks pretty good with some enhancement.. Gfs not really impressive with synoptic or lake effect this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/13/2021 at 4:32 AM, wolfie09 said: The winter of 20/21.. Expand A Low over Rehobeth and it's STILL rain the whole way to Canada?!?! Lol...any other winter (at least until last winter) I would say it's on drugs..... BUT I could see this happening this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Para and Canadian look good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 More of a wrap around regime on the para and Canadian than pure lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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