mississaugasnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lakes will be on fire starting next week Im still not sold. A lot of the models keep pushing back the colder air. A lot of chatter was January 15th and now its 1-2 weeks past that date, with some even starting to punt to February. Ive had snow on the ground for the last 10 days and since I'm more of a snow cover guy this winter will continue to get decent grades from me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Real happy my Northern Rockies trip was last year. BC is the only game in town We were supposed to be back country skiing at Yellowstone next month. Had COVID not killed the trip the lack of snow might have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, cny rider said: We were supposed to be back country skiing at Yellowstone next month. Had COVID not killed the trip the lack of snow might have! PNW looks pretty decent for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 https://twitter.com/HorstWeather/status/1349018594584260610?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Im still not sold. A lot of the models keep pushing back the colder air. A lot of chatter was January 15th and now its 1-2 weeks past that date, with some even starting to punt to February. Ive had snow on the ground for the last 10 days and since I'm more of a snow cover guy this winter will continue to get decent grades from me. The middle of the month was the beginning of the pattern change. This week brings chances of snow, we did not have that the last few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The middle of the month was the beginning of the pattern change. This week brings chances of snow, we did not have that the last few weeks. Agreed, Jan 15th and beyond hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Lakes will be on fire starting next week Better be...or Imma start settin' things on fire... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Better be...or Imma start settin' things on fire... I mean if it were me, Matt, not that I’m at all advocating you leave (please leave) but I’d start with your current lease or mortgage contract as the fire starter...I hear Irkutsk Russia is lovely this time of year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The middle of the month was the beginning of the pattern change. This week brings chances of snow, we did not have that the last few weeks. Possibly for Lake Effect and areas further east, but the next 10+ days still look pretty boring in the GTHA down thru Michigan/Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian shuts off the lake effect pretty quick.. Lake effect and synoptic.. Sign me up. I have zero complaints about this winter over here. Over 40", went subzero, still a solid 3" glacier, and mood flakes aplenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Freezing drizzle has coated everything here in Williamsville. Definitely NOT one of the precip types expected today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Freezing drizzle has coated everything here in Williamsville. Definitely NOT one of the precip types expected today... Yeah I noticed the NWS issued an advisory about an hour ago.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Freezing drizzle. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 53 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Freezing drizzle has coated everything here in Williamsville. Definitely NOT one of the precip types expected today... We had some in Monroe too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Yay. 30 and rain. Roads seem fine for now but a lot of glaze on trees and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Model guidances continue to have their difference with placement and timing of features for the weekend and into the first half of the next week, therefore forecast confidence remains uncertain. The upper level low over the western Great Lakes Saturday morning will allow for a shortwave to round eastern edge of the low, which will help pull the low northeastward. As this shortwave rounds into the eastern side of the low, it will enter into an area of vorticity along the Atlantic Coast which will help form a surface wave along the cold frontal boundary. This newly formed surface wave will deepen as energy is transferred from the primary surface low located over the western Great Lakes. The newly strengthening low will then make its way north crossing the Green and White Mountain ranges Saturday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of the surface low over the Great Lakes will make its way over the eastern Great Lakes during this time, before advancing northeast on Sunday. Additionally, in the wake of the cold front, cold air will be advected into the region, with air aloft at 850mb dropping to -8/-10C. All in all, what does this mean in terms of weather for the region? Saturday morning, the precipitation associated with the frontal passage from the night prior will be along eastern portions of the region (Northern Cayuga/Oswego counties eastward). This area of precipitation should remain overhead across the eastern portions for much of the day Saturday as the aforementioned surface low over the Atlantic Coast tracks northward across Vermont and New Hampshire. Much of this precipitation should fall in the form of snow, though in the lower elevations some rain/snow mix and eventually all rain will be possible due to diurnal heating. For the remainder of the region, chances for snow/mix of snow and rain/rain showers remain in the forecast due to wrap around moisture and remnants of the primary low crossing the area. Lake effect snow showers will form due to a combination of the cold air aloft crossing the lakes though this won`t be until late Saturday and Sunday night. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. Possibility of lake snows will remain in the forecast through the first part of the new work week as model guidances are slower to build in the surface ridge into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Model guidances continue to have their difference with placement and timing of features for the weekend and into the first half of the next week, therefore forecast confidence remains uncertain. The upper level low over the western Great Lakes Saturday morning will allow for a shortwave to round eastern edge of the low, which will help pull the low northeastward. As this shortwave rounds into the eastern side of the low, it will enter into an area of vorticity along the Atlantic Coast which will help form a surface wave along the cold frontal boundary. This newly formed surface wave will deepen as energy is transferred from the primary surface low located over the western Great Lakes. The newly strengthening low will then make its way north crossing the Green and White Mountain ranges Saturday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of the surface low over the Great Lakes will make its way over the eastern Great Lakes during this time, before advancing northeast on Sunday. Additionally, in the wake of the cold front, cold air will be advected into the region, with air aloft at 850mb dropping to -8/-10C. All in all, what does this mean in terms of weather for the region? Saturday morning, the precipitation associated with the frontal passage from the night prior will be along eastern portions of the region (Northern Cayuga/Oswego counties eastward). This area of precipitation should remain overhead across the eastern portions for much of the day Saturday as the aforementioned surface low over the Atlantic Coast tracks northward across Vermont and New Hampshire. Much of this precipitation should fall in the form of snow, though in the lower elevations some rain/snow mix and eventually all rain will be possible due to diurnal heating. For the remainder of the region, chances for snow/mix of snow and rain/rain showers remain in the forecast due to wrap around moisture and remnants of the primary low crossing the area. Lake effect snow showers will form due to a combination of the cold air aloft crossing the lakes though this won`t be until late Saturday and Sunday night. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. Possibility of lake snows will remain in the forecast through the first part of the new work week as model guidances are slower to build in the surface ridge into the area. Not the best looking forecast, basically a shade above dull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 From Binghamton- snippet This large upper low will gradually become more open and start to move more rapidly to the e/ne late Saturday into Sunday. This will usher in the cold/drier air to the region much faster late this weekend...and this cold regime is expected to remain in place into the beginning of the week. The cold northwest flow will be variable at times Sunday into Monday but be conducive for lake effect snow showers. The flow pattern should keep most of the accumulating snow east of Lake Ontario, but some bands may arc south into the Thruway and south of Syracuse at times as well. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens will return early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Our year in a nutshell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Our year in a nutshell lol Yeah...I am gonna cling to the long range NAM instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Well we have the para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Well we have the para.. That looks much better! So what is the difference between the GFS vs Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is a wacky winter. Just crunched some numbers. Since December first, it has snowed 33 out of 43 days..... for whopping 11.2" of snow!! That's pretty wild to have frozen precip on that many days yet it amounts to virtually nothing. We are definitely lining up to have a top 5 least snowy winters ever for KROC. I always say I like extremes, so if its not going to snow, lets at least break some records. Would be pretty historic to see us be under 40 on the season. The lowest seasonal snow total for KROC since 1940 is 41" ......It only takes one big storm though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 That should be sent to webster under the definition of "dink and dunk" lol We haven't had nearly as many Snowfalls here, we just lucked out with one event or we would have a more embarrassing 3"-4" on the year.. This winter has tested my patience like no other.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is has got to be the worst 2 year span in recorded history for pulaski, 80-100 inch deficit last year and who knows how much deficit we finish with this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That should be sent to webster under the definition of "dink and dunk" lol We haven't had nearly as many Snowfalls here, we just lucked out with one event or we would have a more embarrassing 3"-4" on the year.. This winter has tested my patience like no other.. I feel like I live in NJ again... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Hmmm...across the subs over the past week, there was chatter about things getting better after 01/20. Checking out the models, STILL looking at rain possible with any synoptic system that comes...all these lame Lows cutting across the Great Lakes with mild air. Better pattern after Chrismas....then first week of January...then January 10th...then Jan. 15th....then January 20th....gee, when have we seen this crap before?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Hmmm...across the subs over the past week, there was chatter about things getting better after 01/20. Checking out the models, STILL looking at rain possible with any synoptic system that comes...all these lame Lows cutting across the Great Lakes with mild air. Better pattern after Chrismas....then first week of January...then January 10th...then Jan. 15th....then January 20th....gee, when have we seen this crap before?? Exactly. Everyone saying this one is for real. Seems plausible but I just can’t buy it. I can’t wait to admit I was 100% wrong when we are all digging our way through late January and February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Exactly. Everyone saying this one is for real. Seems plausible but I just can’t buy it. I can’t wait to admit I was 100% wrong when we are all digging our way through late January and February. Fool me once... How come we all know the models are wrong at hr. 240 and the models dont? Thats an interesting question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 So much for the 2-3” of snow around BUF today. Freezing drizzle... Eh... next? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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