LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Would you rather have the Euro being the only model showing no snow or the only model showing snow? Tough proposition, especially for @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Would you rather have the Euro being the only model showing no snow or the only model showing snow? Tough proposition, especially for @Ji euro has ukmet, jma, icon. pretty much the same models that dismissed Thursdays storm 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UK looks good to me, the coastal development happens at a more favorable latitude for us than the GFS/Para. ETA: And it's really cold throughout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 Cold too, with mid-to-upper 20's falling to the low-to-mid 20's as the storm progresses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: Cold too, with mid-to-upper 20's falling to the low-to-mid 20's as the storm progresses. It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 Yes. There is more coming after that for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Probably. One model shows 24” and the other shows 3-6”. Which one is more likely to end up right? Whichever one could crow confirmation. Cover every base and then maybe by tomorrow night my fun part arrives, live observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS. 11 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad. 14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: UK looks good to me, the coastal development happens at a more favorable latitude for us than the GFS/Para. ETA: And it's really cold throughout 14 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 How was the UKIE? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: How was the UKIE? Reminds me of a certain Dec storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z UKIE has the SLP in extreme southern Illinois/western Ky at 120. GFS is in central IN. 144 has it off the coast pretty far. Won't know any details until the better maps are available. PW should have those if you didn't know already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: How was the UKIE? It's 4 to 6, or 4 to 8 and it's acceptable and it's not acceptable. It's just right and it's too far south. Maybe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So far, it seems like the GFS is the only model that wants to get rid of the confluence early. Even at the tail end of the long meso runs (NAM 12 and RGEM) the GFS is already starting to pull away to the east. It would be a great show of force for the model if it does indeed verify with a faster exit, but right now it's pretty much alone it appears. Edit: FWIW, NAVGEM looks pretty good too but not really one of the models to take cues from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UKMET is good, but ICON is the top seed for 12z so far. Gotta give it some bonus points too for pulling the surface low back down from Long Island to Cape May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Lol. It’s a little confusing when people say that a 6-12” run is a disaster. Suggestion: Put on ignore the idiots who say that. Edit: And stop even mentioning those people 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 To my weenie eyes, the GEPS have a quicker coastal transfer than 0z. I don't know how well those verify, but it was a small step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Based on everything so far—I’ll pull out the champagne bottle around 1:20 (the cheap stuff). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: To my weenie eyes, the GEPS have a quicker coastal transfer than 0z. I don't know how well those verify, but it was a small step in the right direction. That seems correct. Also a great overall bump in the snow mean. It's forced to be 5 days but it should be uncontaminated from other events 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I won’t believe it’s real until Bob Chill pops in. 6 1 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: To my weenie eyes, the GEPS have a quicker coastal transfer than 0z. I don't know how well those verify, but it was a small step in the right direction. Yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I won’t believe it’s real until Bob Chill pops in. I've always wondered if he's just been waiting for the next legit storm to actually hit us (or be knocking on the door a day or two out) before he pops up again, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Would love @bobchill to return here but I don't think its in the cards. Sad. Helluva contributor. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jeff B said: Would love @bobchill to return here but I don't think its in the cards. Sad. Helluva contributor. It's off topic but did something happen to make him leave? I'm not always on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: It's off topic but did something happen to make him leave? I'm not always on here. Mods have covered this elsewhere. He checks in from time to time. He was not run off nor did he leave because he felt unwelcome. He may be back at some point if he decides to post again. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro precip shield is just south of us for Thursday. Has some flurries out here for an hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro H5 over NE is vastly different than the GFS and almost the same as Euro 0z run 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z EURO at 96 -- 995mb SLP in extreme SE CO... 1035 HP in Western Quebec north of Lake Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Euro H5 over NE is vastly different than the GFS and almost the same as Euro 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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