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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Would you rather have the Euro being the only model showing no snow or the only model showing snow?

Tough proposition, especially for @Ji

euro has ukmet, jma, icon.  pretty much the same models that dismissed Thursdays storm

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing 

 

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS. 

 

11 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad.

 

14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

UK looks good to me, the coastal development happens at a more favorable latitude for us than the GFS/Para.

 

ETA: And it's really cold throughout

 

14 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

UKIE is a solid hit.  4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144

How was the UKIE?

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So far, it seems like the GFS is the only model that wants to get rid of the confluence early. Even at the tail end of the long meso runs (NAM 12 and RGEM) the GFS is already starting to pull away to the east. It would be a great show of force for the model if it does indeed verify with a faster exit, but right now it's pretty much alone it appears.

Edit: FWIW, NAVGEM looks pretty good too but not really one of the models to take cues from.

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6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

To my weenie eyes, the GEPS have a quicker coastal transfer than 0z.  I don't know how well those verify, but it was a small step in the right direction.

That seems correct. Also a great overall bump in the snow mean. It's forced to be 5 days but it should be uncontaminated from other events

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_120hr-2321200.thumb.png.064e8ec93c980079d25d12344dfcea41.png

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