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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Look at hour 99 on the GFS and 111 on the 0z Euro.  Its night and day over New England, suppressing the flow over the east.  Euro has much stronger confluence, hence the primary being further south.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2018800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2018800.png

So now...with the Euro being spot-on with Thursday's suppression...you HOPE that can continue with this!! C'mon Euro :lol:

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5 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

CMC pretty much misses everybody including the northeast with any coastal snows. Just light stuff. Looks to be off sure. ULL goes south of us but just light stuff through 162. 

 

 

Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event

gem_z500a_eus_26.thumb.png.b05d896a6d7d1723c8020bf56e8b6382.png

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Just now, MD Snow said:

if 3-6" is considered light...

Looks like the overrunning was more of a 2 to 4 type deal and then the area picks up another 1 or 2 inches over the next 24 hours with the upper level support.

So yea not light but didn't really get anything heavy into the area either. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event

gem_z500a_eus_26.thumb.png.b05d896a6d7d1723c8020bf56e8b6382.png

Yeah...interesting....that feature was there on the CMC for yesterday's 12z run and it was a MECS. Snowed for 2 days. If indeed that feature is there I think it'll come down to how they interact. Also, the TPV isn't what suppressed the Thursday event. It's the fact that today's sw just sits in the northeast and doesn't allow Thursdays sw to amplify. 

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event

Just now, MD Snow said:

Yeah...interesting....that feature was there on the CMC for yesterday's 12z run and it was a BECS. Snowed for 2 days. If indeed that feature is there I think it'll come down to how they interact. 

 

yea, i thought the run looked better at 500 until that showed up.  it's too early anyway for snowfall maps and what not at 6-7 days out.  certainly looked cold enough.  how strong is the primary, how much gulf interaction, trough orientation, where will the coastal form, how much confluence...too early.  probably best to focus on the ensembles today.

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15 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

No. A general 3-6 for the MA mostly from the "thump."

All models are showing a borderline warning level event, at a minimum. You'd think based off the vibes right now it's winter canceled.  

Come on.  It's only one person and his tired act.    Most everyone else is fine with it.

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