Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: CMC pretty much misses everybody including the northeast with any coastal snows. Just light stuff. Looks to be off sure. ULL goes south of us but just light stuff through 162. Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: if 3-6" is considered light... Is that in addition to the thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Is that in addition to the thump? No. A general 3-6 for the MA mostly from the "thump." All models are showing a borderline warning level event, at a minimum. You'd think based off the vibes right now it's winter canceled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: if 3-6" is considered light... Looks like the overrunning was more of a 2 to 4 type deal and then the area picks up another 1 or 2 inches over the next 24 hours with the upper level support. So yea not light but didn't really get anything heavy into the area either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Is that in addition to the thump? No total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event Yeah...interesting....that feature was there on the CMC for yesterday's 12z run and it was a MECS. Snowed for 2 days. If indeed that feature is there I think it'll come down to how they interact. Also, the TPV isn't what suppressed the Thursday event. It's the fact that today's sw just sits in the northeast and doesn't allow Thursdays sw to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z UKIE has the SLP in extreme southern Illinois/western Ky at 120. GFS is in central IN. 144 has it off the coast pretty far. Won't know any details until the better maps are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12Z WB GEFS. If we get 3 plus inches by Monday I would be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: 12z UKIE has the SLP in extreme southern Illinois/western Ky at 120. GFS is in central IN. 144 has it off the coast pretty far. Won't know any details until the better maps are available. How does this compare to 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So the 0z Euro is the only model showing any coastal action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: How does this compare to 0z? Impossible to completely compare but 0z was Southern Mo to Ky to a transfer off the coast from 120-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is that.. son of TPV 1 up in Maine?? This is giving me deja vu because I could've sworn that the Canadian was the first to pick up on this feature for the Thurs event Just now, MD Snow said: Yeah...interesting....that feature was there on the CMC for yesterday's 12z run and it was a BECS. Snowed for 2 days. If indeed that feature is there I think it'll come down to how they interact. yea, i thought the run looked better at 500 until that showed up. it's too early anyway for snowfall maps and what not at 6-7 days out. certainly looked cold enough. how strong is the primary, how much gulf interaction, trough orientation, where will the coastal form, how much confluence...too early. probably best to focus on the ensembles today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: No. A general 3-6 for the MA mostly from the "thump." All models are showing a borderline warning level event, at a minimum. You'd think based off the vibes right now it's winter canceled. Come on. It's only one person and his tired act. Most everyone else is fine with it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Would you rather have the Euro being the only model showing no snow or the only model showing snow? Tough proposition, especially for @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Would you rather have the Euro being the only model showing no snow or the only model showing snow? Tough proposition, especially for @Ji euro has ukmet, jma, icon. pretty much the same models that dismissed Thursdays storm 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UK looks good to me, the coastal development happens at a more favorable latitude for us than the GFS/Para. ETA: And it's really cold throughout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 Cold too, with mid-to-upper 20's falling to the low-to-mid 20's as the storm progresses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: Cold too, with mid-to-upper 20's falling to the low-to-mid 20's as the storm progresses. It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 Yes. There is more coming after that for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Probably. One model shows 24” and the other shows 3-6”. Which one is more likely to end up right? Whichever one could crow confirmation. Cover every base and then maybe by tomorrow night my fun part arrives, live observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS. 11 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad. 14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: UK looks good to me, the coastal development happens at a more favorable latitude for us than the GFS/Para. ETA: And it's really cold throughout 14 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: UKIE is a solid hit. 4-8 inches region wide and it appears to still be snowing at 144 How was the UKIE? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: How was the UKIE? Reminds me of a certain Dec storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z UKIE has the SLP in extreme southern Illinois/western Ky at 120. GFS is in central IN. 144 has it off the coast pretty far. Won't know any details until the better maps are available. PW should have those if you didn't know already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: How was the UKIE? It's 4 to 6, or 4 to 8 and it's acceptable and it's not acceptable. It's just right and it's too far south. Maybe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So far, it seems like the GFS is the only model that wants to get rid of the confluence early. Even at the tail end of the long meso runs (NAM 12 and RGEM) the GFS is already starting to pull away to the east. It would be a great show of force for the model if it does indeed verify with a faster exit, but right now it's pretty much alone it appears. Edit: FWIW, NAVGEM looks pretty good too but not really one of the models to take cues from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 UKMET is good, but ICON is the top seed for 12z so far. Gotta give it some bonus points too for pulling the surface low back down from Long Island to Cape May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Lol. It’s a little confusing when people say that a 6-12” run is a disaster. Suggestion: Put on ignore the idiots who say that. Edit: And stop even mentioning those people 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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