frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b HM mentioned this. HA event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 0z bullseyed northern VA. I don’t think we want it to keep trending south at this point. It’s good...especially for us...right now. 6z was good. Just pointing that out. Couldn't this loop offshore. At a lower latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, Scraff said: I have a good feeling about the 12z suite... That's just the IPA you're working on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 53 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: A Heather A is bigger than a Becky C, but not as memorable as Chuck D. I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It basically snows for 60 hours straight on that run here. Lets just lock that up and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Guidance says we've only got 90hrs until our storm forms in the midwest. Getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: ICON actually drops surface temps from the mid 20's to mid teens during the event. This might be the one ya'll. The Icon ussually never shows snow when other models have it. It's ussually right for the wrong reasons lol. With the Icon showing a big storm that can't be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Always nice to the see the 850 0c line through Raleigh as the storm approaches. 114hr GFS has snow breaking out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS is gonna be a mauling. Heavy snow in SW VA at 120. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Always nice to the see the 850 0c line through Raleigh as the storm approaches. 114hr GFS has snow breaking out. Looks like slightly better cad signature as compared to 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 so its goign to take the GFS 6 cycles to get it right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Through 126, GFS has the primary in central IN. Way further north than almost all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: so its goign to take the GFS 6 cycles to get it right? 30 hours I've heard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is gonna be a mauling. Heavy snow in SW VA at 120. i think we are guarnteed snow from the primary dying...the big question is the transfer/coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Mod-Heavy snow at 123. Colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Its a thump to dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Through 126, GFS has the primary in central IN. Way further north than almost all other guidance. Yep. Though aside from the 00z run, its been slowly trending south with the primary each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i think we are guaranteed snow from the primary dying...the big question is the transfer/coastal nothing here is guaranteed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Primary moves due west through 135 to almost Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yep - initial slug looks great and then it dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It's a good thing when a primary makes it up to Lake Erie, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Through 126, GFS has the primary in central IN. Way further north than almost all other guidance. Eh it probably stays north for another 24-36hrs...seems like a familiar situation...only this time when it shifts south it might be a shift in our favor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like the transfer happens at 141-144. Thump, dryslot, coastal misses north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 the gfs is pure garbage 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The further north and longer the primary takes to transfer means a further north transfer favoring areas to our north. I'm not sweating the GFS. Especially after how it handled Thursday's system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS is the “fail” and still shows 3-6” across the area? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Where's the new buzzword "TPV" when we need it? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WB 12Z GFS, nice front thump, but no coastal snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 para has a better thump than OP GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 What's fascinating is how the ICON and Euro have the redevelopment with the stall. Incredible both models show the same progression at 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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