ErinInTheSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: Especially 5-6 days from the actual event. I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday. Same. It's hard to get super excited when we were dealing with JUST this situation a few days ago. Still, it's nice to see the models keeping us game for something nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: Especially 5-6 days from the actual event. I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday. The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WB 6Z EPS snow mean at 1am Monday about the same at 6Z compared to 0Z. Know it is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. After the last few winters we all need coping strategies 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: After the last few winters we all need coping strategies Seriously. We all need a Mid-Atl (to Philly ) special to right this ship. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji? No, keep it up. It makes for good weather discussion which is the whole point here. Few more EURO runs in a row with this type of solution and we can start to get a little more excited. Until then... we need to explore all possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here. But expecting that? Absolutely not! Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course. It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too. Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle. Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps! I mean really, come on! I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see: this Thursday's non-event!). A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event. Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 06z EPS is a pretty classic Miller B. Obvious caveats apply, but that would at least get everyone some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Keeping my expectations in check definitely......as I text family and friends pictures of the Euro clown map from last night. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. i particularly love that someone who should be in the Philly forum is posting serious ICON discussions here instead 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Moved west a tad at 174 as SLP is now in DE at 993mb... snowing everywhere Still snowing at 180@CAPE and I might disagree about that definition of "everywhere ". Still, looks like Temps would crash back down and switch back to snow even on this side of the Bay as the coastal gets going.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 After what happened with the Thursday storm, this better not be the time that the Euro caves to the GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: After what happened with the Thursday storm, this better not be the time that the Euro caves to the GFS. That 6z eps run was drool worthy. Looking at H5 and h7 that would have bombed and probably closed off in a really good spot for Mid atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 There’s nothing wrong with being excited while being cautious. There has never been a winter storm where we sat 6 days out and didn’t have worries over one aspect or another. The excitement comes from knowing that if things go optimally this event could be a ku. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. the euro never looked good for THursday. IT was awful...every run 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. Agree that the upcoming Sunday-Monday event has more support than the missed opportunity for this Thursday. Let's hope the trend continues in a positive direction for the Sunday-Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: GFS Para at 6Z has weekend storm north of our area. Hopefully EURO 6Z EPS remains bullish. DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, snowmagnet said: So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. A Heather A is bigger than a Becky C, but not as memorable as Chuck D. 3 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro never looked good for THursday. IT was awful...every run Actually, not true. It had a great storm very early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A. Miller B hybrid (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? Man rescued from desert island rejects large pizza. Holding out for all you can eat Alaskan king crab legs and filet mignon. 5 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? Spot on. Given what’s transpired over the last several winters in no world should 6-8 be a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ICON is a very nice hit. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 what woman did her dr thesis on the NAO and east coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is a very nice hit. Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum I have a good feeling about the 12z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+. Ok enough ICON talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts