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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, catoctin wx said:

Especially 5-6 days from the actual event.  I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday.

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

This.

The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better.

BTW, has anyone checked on Ji?

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

After the last few winters we all need coping strategies :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This.

The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better.

BTW, has anyone checked on Ji?

No, keep it up. It makes for good weather discussion which is the whole point here. Few more EURO runs in a row with this type of solution and we can start to get a little more excited. Until then... we need to explore all possibilities.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here.  But expecting that?  Absolutely not!  Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course.  It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too.  Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle.  Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps!  I mean really, come on!  I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see:  this Thursday's non-event!).  A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event.  Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL!

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36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

i particularly love that someone who should be in the Philly forum is posting serious ICON discussions here instead

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Moved west a tad at 174 as SLP is now in DE at 993mb... snowing everywhere
Still snowing at 180
@CAPE and I might disagree about that definition of "everywhere ". Still, looks like Temps would crash back down and switch back to snow even on this side of the Bay as the coastal gets going.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week.  Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too,  but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week.  Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too,  but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event.

the euro never looked good for THursday. IT was awful...every run

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Just now, Weather Will said:

More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week.  Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too,  but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event.

Agree that the upcoming Sunday-Monday event has more support than the missed opportunity for this Thursday. Let's hope the trend continues in a positive direction for the Sunday-Monday event.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

A Heather A is bigger than a Becky C, but not as memorable as  Chuck D.

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6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

Miller B hybrid (I think).  

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? 

Man rescued from desert island rejects large pizza. Holding out for all you can eat Alaskan king crab legs and filet mignon.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

1435590101_icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2180800(1).thumb.png.4decdecc6018d75008d8f6f799068bd5.png

Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum

I have a good feeling about the 12z suite...

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Just now, Cobalt said:

1435590101_icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2180800(1).thumb.png.4decdecc6018d75008d8f6f799068bd5.png

Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum

Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+.  Ok enough ICON talk

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