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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, Weather Will said:

More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week.  Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too,  but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event.

Agree that the upcoming Sunday-Monday event has more support than the missed opportunity for this Thursday. Let's hope the trend continues in a positive direction for the Sunday-Monday event.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

A Heather A is bigger than a Becky C, but not as memorable as  Chuck D.

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6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

Miller B hybrid (I think).  

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now????? 

Man rescued from desert island rejects large pizza. Holding out for all you can eat Alaskan king crab legs and filet mignon.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

1435590101_icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2180800(1).thumb.png.4decdecc6018d75008d8f6f799068bd5.png

Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum

I have a good feeling about the 12z suite...

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Just now, Cobalt said:

1435590101_icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2180800(1).thumb.png.4decdecc6018d75008d8f6f799068bd5.png

Pretty great opener to 12z. Wonky surface depiction (the snow in SE VA is from Thursday), but my takeaway was that at precip onset, temperatures are actually pretty cold, mid 20s for a majority of the subforum

Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+.  Ok enough ICON talk

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2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

So is the euro all by itself showing a massive storm? Doesn't Ji have a peer reviewed theory on that?

I think the 00Z UKMET if extended would be good. It has the primary low in Kentucky and the secondary forming in eastern NC with you under a pretty good wedge. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Its a sloppy-ish phase (kind of what Ralph was alluding to) and the Surface doesn't get captured until its just north of us but still throws more snow at us 150hr+.  Ok enough ICON talk

Oh okay yeah the precip was still rolling with those panels, keeps DC and even immediate SE below 30 degrees but precip is spotty there, but ICON on board with a good storm.

icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2267200.thumb.png.8c32b553f4d7fe1e05d4441f80ed8e3b.png

Pretty sure precip is still going in this panel for a fair bit of the subforum, but it's the ICON so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Oh okay yeah the precip was still rolling with those panels, keeps DC and even immediate SE below 30 degrees but precip is spotty there, but ICON on board with a good storm.

icon-all-ma-total_snow_10to1-2267200.thumb.png.8c32b553f4d7fe1e05d4441f80ed8e3b.png

Pretty sure precip is still going in this panel for a fair bit of the subforum, but it's the ICON so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run.  Might be a record duration.  Wild.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Lol...It snows from 126 to the end of the run.  Might be a record duration.  Wild.

Best part I like is the high slides in tandem with the approaching LP and with precipitation arrival down this way 2m temps are in the negative in NY state, signifying the cold air is entrenched. Normally we are all complaining and stressing for the fact that the high is bailing and exiting stage right. That’s def one thing to keep an eye on in future runs.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON is a huge hit.  Fun to look at.  

I think.. it's still going after 180? Precip panels not showing up for that timeframe but it appears so. Absolute eye candy, but at least it's not on a complete island...

edit: yeah it keeps us snowing through 180 and maybe beyond lol

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If verified, don't think anyone in the subforum would have less than 3 inches (S/SW of ocean city). Usual caveats with 10:1 maps. When's the last time everyone was able to walk away with something like that, no fringing? But let's wait and see what the more well regarded models have to say shortly.

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47 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal?   I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments.  But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B.   I have never heard of a Heather A.  

Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

0z bullseyed northern VA. I don’t think we want it to keep trending south at this point. It’s good...especially for us...right now.  6z was good.  Just pointing that out. 

It is interesting you say that because some Mets are actually playing the Miller A North of us game

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