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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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 eps_24hour.thumb.png.d86c57cd156e808889b7ffb6c52f1657.png

 

 Snow TV still possible on Thursday.

Nearly unanimous EPS agreement that next Monday will be interesting.  An exciting end to our window? 

Weenie caution: Numbers are 24-hour snow/sleet totals for every-other 12-hour period - so divide by 2 if summing over time.  Colors show 24-hour average snow/sleet totals for 6-hour periods

 

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That’s some crazy aggressiveness from the Euro and EPS with the probabilities Weather Will posted. Euro honking big time. Anyone know what mb the HP was on the Euro? That was one thing that really stood out to me with the GFS and CMC. GFS had a 1032 and CMC had a 1038-1039. Major differences would arise naturally being that far off. I’m with Bristow on this one tho I simply can’t get over being screwed royally on the Thur system albeit the Para and GFS still want to give us a decent event down here but I don’t buy it.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Para looks good to me.  Coastal never really gets going in time except for far eastern SNE.  

Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here.  Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever.  

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I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

Yet pretty much the only model with any credibility 120+ out. 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

First!!!

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here.  Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever.  

I'm happy that the Euro, CMC, Para show us getting some WAA snows.  It would be awesome to get a 3-6 or 4-8 type deal.  Of course I'd love a big dog but let's start with the WAA snows. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'm happy that the Euro, CMC, Para show us getting some WAA snows.  It would be awesome to get a 3-6 or 4-8 type deal.  Of course I'd love a big dog but let's start with the WAA snows. 

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February 

The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this. 

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10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here.  Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever.  

Para is basically a region wide 8 to 12" event. I think all of us would take that at this point. I know I would.

 

Well..... Maybe 1 person wouldn't lol

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Impressive wedge for that range 

F28BFD0F-5D13-432A-823F-FED070333E20.gif.269dc7b1bdd917b9c37224c681ac1cb0.gif

PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old.  But, this one caught my eye for some reason.  Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point?  There was no real cold air wedge or damming.  It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh.  My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here.  Just something that occurred to me when I saw this.  Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things.

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25 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February 

The blocking is easing/breaking down. It seems as though it will probably recycle and give us another round of blocking in February. But that is not the same as this last round of blocking. 

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old.  But, this one caught my eye for some reason.  Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point?  There was no real cold air wedge or damming.  It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh.  My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here.  Just something that occurred to me when I saw this.  Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things.

Also low key kind of impressed that that signature is shown in an ensemble mean from this far out. Makes it a bit more believable. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was the clustering of farther offshore solutions there at 6z? I noticed the 6z GEFS picked up on those a bit too.

Hear  is 0z at the same time.  Quicker transfer is what I picked up on.

CC78480B-52C9-4DDE-B573-CF3658AC464F.png

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this. 

Especially 5-6 days from the actual event.  I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday.

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