Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here. Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever. Para is basically a region wide 8 to 12" event. I think all of us would take that at this point. I know I would. Well..... Maybe 1 person wouldn't lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks pretty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6z eps looks great. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Intriguing probabilities here , thinking more so a Mid Atlantic event, simple speculation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Heather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Members and the control. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Impressive wedge for that range PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old. But, this one caught my eye for some reason. Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point? There was no real cold air wedge or damming. It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh. My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here. Just something that occurred to me when I saw this. Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, jayyy said: The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February The blocking is easing/breaking down. It seems as though it will probably recycle and give us another round of blocking in February. But that is not the same as this last round of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old. But, this one caught my eye for some reason. Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point? There was no real cold air wedge or damming. It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh. My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here. Just something that occurred to me when I saw this. Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things. Also low key kind of impressed that that signature is shown in an ensemble mean from this far out. Makes it a bit more believable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Members and the control. Was the clustering of farther offshore solutions there at 6z? I noticed the 6z GEFS picked up on those a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was the clustering of farther offshore solutions there at 6z? I noticed the 6z GEFS picked up on those a bit too. Hear is 0z at the same time. Quicker transfer is what I picked up on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 We want a quicker transfer if we want to get the best of both lows, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this. Especially 5-6 days from the actual event. I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: Especially 5-6 days from the actual event. I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday. Same. It's hard to get super excited when we were dealing with JUST this situation a few days ago. Still, it's nice to see the models keeping us game for something nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: Especially 5-6 days from the actual event. I'm keeping my expectations rock bottom until at least Friday. The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 WB 6Z EPS snow mean at 1am Monday about the same at 6Z compared to 0Z. Know it is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. After the last few winters we all need coping strategies 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, catoctin wx said: After the last few winters we all need coping strategies Seriously. We all need a Mid-Atl (to Philly ) special to right this ship. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji? No, keep it up. It makes for good weather discussion which is the whole point here. Few more EURO runs in a row with this type of solution and we can start to get a little more excited. Until then... we need to explore all possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here. But expecting that? Absolutely not! Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course. It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too. Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle. Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps! I mean really, come on! I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see: this Thursday's non-event!). A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event. Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 06z EPS is a pretty classic Miller B. Obvious caveats apply, but that would at least get everyone some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Keeping my expectations in check definitely......as I text family and friends pictures of the Euro clown map from last night. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. i particularly love that someone who should be in the Philly forum is posting serious ICON discussions here instead 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Moved west a tad at 174 as SLP is now in DE at 993mb... snowing everywhere Still snowing at 180@CAPE and I might disagree about that definition of "everywhere ". Still, looks like Temps would crash back down and switch back to snow even on this side of the Bay as the coastal gets going.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 After what happened with the Thursday storm, this better not be the time that the Euro caves to the GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: After what happened with the Thursday storm, this better not be the time that the Euro caves to the GFS. That 6z eps run was drool worthy. Looking at H5 and h7 that would have bombed and probably closed off in a really good spot for Mid atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 There’s nothing wrong with being excited while being cautious. There has never been a winter storm where we sat 6 days out and didn’t have worries over one aspect or another. The excitement comes from knowing that if things go optimally this event could be a ku. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: More optimistic since the EPS looks to support a snow event early next week. Trying to keep expectations in check because Thursday is still in the back of my mind....it looked good for a couple of EURO runs too, but not remembering the control or EPS ever being that enthusiastic for Thursday’s non event. the euro never looked good for THursday. IT was awful...every run 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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