January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

100% chance at 3 or more 6 days out lol

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It obviously doesn’t know our climo and commitment to suck 

[Ji]

Haha Ya don't say...Got a link to that article?

It's a research paper sorry. I'll try to find it tomorrow

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[Ji]

This is about the range where the euro finished making its big southward adjustments the last few waves. So I’m hopeful this time we’re close to where it latches on and it’s only minor adjustments from here on out. But yea we don’t want much more south at this point. 

2nd big run in a row. I think the general theme will stick. I mean every model has a similar look at 120. Euro 120 is on furthest edge of its wheel house. It's gonna snow dude. The amount is the big question

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[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha Ya don't say...Got a link to that article?

Most of her papers are available to read if you google Heather Archambault

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

2nd big run in a row. I think the general theme will stick. I mean every model has a similar look at 120. Euro 120 is on furthest edge of its wheel house. It's gonna snow dude. The amount is the big question

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I’m cautiously optimistic.  I would probably be even more so if not for the recent burn. It’s almost an identical setup to the one I liked so much this week only this time so far no sign of rogue waves to mess it up.  

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

The bar has been set.

Don’t fall for it folks.  This time they all got together to yank our crank. Even the Euro said to the other models “Oh for fcuks sake mates what’s the bloody plan” 

[Ruin]

So im guessing no storm for this up coming thursday the 28th?

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So im guessing no storm for this up coming thursday the 28th?

Gonna say that’s a big fat no.  

[jayyy]

I was joking earlier, but the fact that we’re talking next Wednesday now and not Monday just confirms the insanity that is the 20-21 winter. 

One thing is for sure... we’re going to get smacked when this blocking pattern finally relaxes. A lot of our biggies have come on the tail ends of patterns like this. That being said, it’d be nice to squeeze a few 3+“ events out of this pattern before that happens 

[jayyy]

Still think a small 1-4” type event is on the table late sun into Mon morning as the proverbial appetizer for next weeks mid week threat. Would be sweet to have some snow cover to help out heading into the larger threat if it ends up being a marginal event  

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I was joking earlier, but the fact that we’re talking next Wednesday now and not Monday just confirms the insanity that is the 20-21 winter. 

One thing is for sure... we’re going to get smacked when this blocking pattern finally relaxes. A lot of our biggies have come on the tail ends of patterns like this. That being said, it’d be nice to squeeze a few 3+“ events out of this pattern before that happens 

It looks like late Monday into Tuesday to me.  The Euro ENS above says Tuesday

[aldie 22]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

4 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Wow, Euro worth waiting up for tonight.  Wish this was 48 hours away instead of 160.  

The storm is already set at 120. We'll nevoj nsm range in 1.5 days

I'm still trying to decipher this

[PivotPoint]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I would say the EPS supports the op...more then I expected 

Seriously the south trend can stop RIGHT THERE!!!!!

 

That’s a great mean this far out. Need some consistency over next two days but having euro woofing for us is no small feat!

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm still trying to decipher this

It’s gotta be “we’ll be in NAM” range in 1.5 days, right?  

[dallen7908]

 

 

 

 Snow TV still possible on Thursday.

Nearly unanimous EPS agreement that next Monday will be interesting.  An exciting end to our window? 

Weenie caution: Numbers are 24-hour snow/sleet totals for every-other 12-hour period - so divide by 2 if summing over time.  Colors show 24-hour average snow/sleet totals for 6-hour periods

 

[Buddy1987]

That’s some crazy aggressiveness from the Euro and EPS with the probabilities Weather Will posted. Euro honking big time. Anyone know what mb the HP was on the Euro? That was one thing that really stood out to me with the GFS and CMC. GFS had a 1032 and CMC had a 1038-1039. Major differences would arise naturally being that far off. I’m with Bristow on this one tho I simply can’t get over being screwed royally on the Thur system albeit the Para and GFS still want to give us a decent event down here but I don’t buy it.

[WxUSAF]

Only 1 EPS member doesn't show snow for Sunday/Monday???

Oh yeah, I'm DEFINITELY going to kick the football THIS TIME

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only 1 EPS member doesn't show snow for Sunday/Monday???

Oh yeah, I'm DEFINITELY going to kick the football THIS TIME

Grape, orange or cherry kool-aid sir?

[Weather Will]

GFS Para at 6Z has weekend storm north of our area.  Hopefully EURO 6Z EPS remains bullish.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GFS Para at 6Z has weekend storm north of our area.  Hopefully EURO 6Z EPS remains bullish.

We get 6-8” from WAA....primary hangs on and we dry slot as it transfers near our latitude.  Then we get another 1-2” as the coastal lingers/mills about off the coast.  I’d take that.

[aldie 22]

So is the euro all by itself showing a massive storm? Doesn't Ji have a peer reviewed theory on that?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We get 6-8” from WAA....primary hangs on and we dry slot as it transfers near our latitude.  Then we get another 1-2” as the coastal lingers/mills about off the coast.  I’d take that.

Para looks good to me.  Coastal never really gets going in time except for far eastern SNE.  

[nj2va]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Para looks good to me.  Coastal never really gets going in time except for far eastern SNE.  

Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here.  Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

Yet pretty much the only model with any credibility 120+ out. 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.

First!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, I’m not even buying into the extreme upper end of the Euro this far out - a recipe for let down around here.  Para would be a great storm for DC.....just throw a slug of moisture into cold temps - seems like we haven’t had an easy WAA setup in forever.  

I'm happy that the Euro, CMC, Para show us getting some WAA snows.  It would be awesome to get a 3-6 or 4-8 type deal.  Of course I'd love a big dog but let's start with the WAA snows. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yet pretty much the only model with any credibility 120+ out. 

Again, the ICON, but shows the complexity in trying to get a Euro result. 4 separate sw's trying to interact flying around the retro'ing block. No model will firmly grasp this complexity until under 84 hrs out imho.

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'm happy that the Euro, CMC, Para show us getting some WAA snows.  It would be awesome to get a 3-6 or 4-8 type deal.  Of course I'd love a big dog but let's start with the WAA snows. 

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February 

The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this.